In Canada, Core CPI expected 0.1% rise following 3.0% rise in the past two months while CPI is expected a 0.2% dip following 3.0% rise last month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Bank Stress Test Results, released today, designed to show that Europe’s banks are able to cope with further economic crisis to strengthen confidence in the sector as it emerges from the financial crisis to face mounting pressure from tighter capital requirements, extra taxes and additional regulation.

More in Europe, German Ifo Business Climate forecasted a slight drop to 101.5 points – 0.3 points weaker than last month ensuring stability for the Euro.

Later in Europe, French Consumer Spending predicted 0.3% rise following 0.7% rise in the previous month. Let’s hope this trend will boost the market. Italian Retail Sales are also expected a 0.2% rise following a 0.3% drop in the previous month.

Finally in Europe, National Bank of Belgium business Climate index a leading indicator of economic health expected another drop to -7.9 points following -7.7 points in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Preliminary GDP: After two quarters of growth another rise of 0.6% is expected now which means good news for the British economy.

More in Great Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals forecasted 37K rise the highest this year following 36.7K in June. As a leading indicator of housing market demand the figures show a growth trend that certainly gives room for optimism.

Finally in Great Britain, Index of Services measures the change in the total Gross Value Added of the private and government services sectors; expected 0.7% rise proceeding Last month 0.6% rise.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Import Prices predicted another rise of 0.1% following 0.3% rise in the previous quarter.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

In the US, New Home Sales expected to drop 69K this month reaching 435K after the sharp rise in May’s report.

More in the US, Federal Open Market Committee statement is issued providing data on monetary policy.

Finally in the US, Federal Funds Rate measuring interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight is expected to remain 0.25% and Crude Oil Inventories expected to remain 1.7M as last week.

In Canada, Following the rise in May, Core Retail Sales are likely to remain unchanged this month reaching 1.7% the same as Retail Sales is expected to remain around 2.1%.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, French Flash Manufacturing PMI expected to drop from 55.8 to 55.5 and French Flash Services PMI is also expected a slight decrease of 0.2 points.

More in Europe, GfK German Consumer Climate is foreseen a drop of 0.2 points but all in all it is pretty steady in the last few months, German Flash Manufacturing PMI is also expected to descend from 55.8 to 55.3 and German Flash Services PMI assumed to decrease by 0.3 points since previous month.

Also in Europe, Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate, rising up from -4.9 to -5.1 on a survey that measures the Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, services and trade-related firms of about 6,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months.

Finally in Europe, Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop points reaching 55.5 and Flash Services PMI is likely to stabilize on 56.2 as in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has once again decided to maintain rates at 0.50%.

More in Great Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected to continue their growth from 35.7K to 37.3K bringing optimism to the housing market.

Later in Great Britain, CBI Realized Sales is expected to go up by 1 point reaching -17 following the steep fall from May.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

Moving to New Zealand,  Current Account that is that is released quarterly and measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods; is about to rise up from -3.75 Billion on the previous quarterly to -0.30 Billion.

In Japan, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, speaks at the Annual General Meeting of the Credit Cooperatives, in Tokyo; as head of the central bank, affects the controls short term interest rates.

More in Japan, Trade Balance drop down from 0.73 T to 0.64 T, Released monthly and measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a speech titled “Central Bank Independence, Transparency and Accountability” at the Bank of Japan “Future of Central Banking under Globalization” conference, in Tokyo. Expected to affect interest rates and provide hints on future monetary policy.

Later in the US, Core Durable Goods Orders is expected to drop from 3.5% in April to 0.5% while Durable Goods Orders which includes transportation items is expected to rise from -0.6% to 1.4% this month.

More in the US, New Home Sales are expected to edge up this month by 9000 compared to 411K in April continuing the positive activity in the US housing market. 

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories are expected a similar rise of 0.2 Million barrels this month

In Europe, Belgium NBB Business Climate is foreseen an additional rise of 0.3 points from -2.4 in April after a continuous improvement however it still requires improvement.

Also in Europe, French Consumer Spending is foreseen a drop of -0.5% comparing to last month increase of 1.2% means customers are spending less.

Later in Europe, GfK German Consumer Climate is in for a slight drop from 3.8 points to 3.7 points.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Nationwide House Prices measuring the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide is about to drop from 1.0% to 0.5% which affects the housing industry.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Construction Work Done, released quarterly, measuring the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed is about to increase this quarter by 1.5% arriving to 4.1%.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Trade Balance Is expected to drop this month by 112M NZD compared to 567M in April this could affect the market since New Zealand is greatly dependent on international trade.

In Japan, Trade Balance shows an expected increase of 0.02T from last month 0.67T indicating lively market activity. 

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

In the US, New Home Sales, annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month, a leading indicator of economic health, is expected to leap from 308K to 323K.

Later in the US, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation, a leading indicator of production, released monthly, is expected to drop down from 1.4% to 0.7%

Finally in the US, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks at the conclusion of the G20 meeting, in Washington DC, may indicate policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments. The G20 Meetings are attended by finance ministers and central bankers from 20 industrialized nations including the G7 nations the G20 is an influential global policy-making body operating at the highest level.

In Canada, Bank of Canada Core Consumer Price Index exemplifies the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is the most important inflation-related release due to it’s earliness and broad scope, foreseen to drop from 0.7% to 0.1% and Core Retail Sales is expected to follow

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate, Survey of about 7,000 businesses, tends to create a hefty market impact upon release, is expected to rise from 98.1 to 98.8. The Italian Retail Sales is also expected to go up from -0.5% to 0.3%.

Also in Europe, Belgium NBB Business Climate, leading indicator of economic health, is predicted to rise from -3.6 to -2.5 and French Consumer Spending, the primary gauge of consumer spending, is expected to go up from -1.2 $ to 0.4%.

More from Europe, Industrial New Orders released monthly indicator of production is about to rise from -1.6% to 0.9%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, The indicator of change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services. Due to its preliminary release, it tends to have the most impact. The forecast remains unchanged -  0.4% and also the Index of Services is expected to follow and will remain 0.6%.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens delivers a speech titled “Economic Conditions” at the University of Southern Queensland. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency.

More in Australia, Import Prices are foreseen a rise from -4.3% to -1.4%, this will contribute to inflation for businesses and consumers.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zeeland Credit Card Spending is expected to go unchanged.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Meetingst provides policy advice and can agree funding support when countries face severe difficulties, can impact the currency markets

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

EUR/USD showed us what range trading is in the past week, moved also by Jean-Claude Trichet. He will speak again in the upcoming week, and there are plenty of other events in the Euroland. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events that will impact the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Apart from Jean-Claude Trichet, another event that stands out is the updated GDP, especially now that Europe is out of recession. Let’s see the 14 events awaiting us. Take a deep breath:

1. French Flash PMI: The influx of purchasing managers’ indices begin in France on Monday at 8:00 GMT. Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to take a break from 8 straight month of rise, and edge down from 55.6 to 55.1 points, still expanding. Flash Services PMI is also predicted to take a break after the big jump last month to 57.8 points but remain high at 57.3 points, being under 50 for the third month in a row.
2. German Flash PMI: In Europe’s largest economy, Manufacturing PMI managed to rise above 50 only last month. This time, it’s expected to advance from 51 to 51.7, showing that the German industry is strong. The Services PMI in Germany is already above the 50 point mark for three months, but isn’t rising all the time. It’s predicted to edge up from 50.9 o 51.2 this time. Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT.
3. European Flash PMI: Purchasing managers have become optimistic, expecting economic expansion only last month. This month’s figure is expected to stand at 51.5, 0.8 points more that last month. The services sector is doing better, with 52.6 points last month, and an expected rise to 52.7 now. Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT.
4. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: The president of the European Central Bank has moved the EUR/USD in many occasions. Recently he has advocated a strong dollar. He’ll be speaking in Madrid on Monday at 13:00 GMT.
5. German Final GDP: The initial release for the third quarter has shown that the German economy grew by 0.7%. This is expected to be confirmed at the final release on Tuesday at 7:00 GMT. In the initial release, we’ve seen that the whole continent is out of recession, but this was expected, and the Euro didn’t enjoy it too much.
6. French Consumer Spending: Europe’s second largest economy’s consumers have made in a big leap in spending last month – 2.3%. This was after two months of downfall. This time, spending is expected to rise at a mild pace of 0.6%. Published on Tuesday at 7:50 GMT.
7. German Ifo Business Climate:  The German “Information and Forschung” institute runs a highly regarded survey that polls 700 business for their sentiment towards the economic conditions. This figure has been rising during the year, and is now expected to rise from 91.9 to 92.6. Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT.
8. Industrial New Orders: Germany’s factories are doing well, and this is pulling the whole continent forward. Industrial New Orders in Europe has posted excellent rises in the past three months, with a 2% rise last month, surprising economists each time. A softer rise is predicted this time – 0.7%. Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.
9. Belgium NBB Business Climate: Despite coming from a very small country, the National Bank of Belgium has influence on the Euro through this survey. The figure has been negative, expressing concern from the 6,00 businesses polled in this survey. But the number has been improving, reaching -14.2 last month, the highest in 14 months. It’s predicted to rise to -11.3 points this month. Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. American Consumer Confidence sent the Euro way down a few weeks ago.
10. GfK German Consumer Climate: This survey comes from the biggest economy – Germany. 2000 consumers are asked about future economic conditions. LAst month, this number disappointed by dropping from 4.3 to 4 points. It’s predicted to be on the rise again, jumping to 4.5 points. Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT.
11. German Prelim CPI: Deflation is weighing on the Euro for quite some time. German prices are around zero for quite some time. After a rise of 0.1% last month, they are expected to be flat this time. The figure is a composite number based on the 16 German states. It will be published during Thursday.
12. M3 Money Supply: Growth in the amount of money has been slowing down, month after month, disappointing economists each time. Last month’s figure has been the lowest in a very long time – 1.8%. A 0.7% is predicted this time. No new money means no inflation and no rate hikes -bad for the Euro. Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.
13. German Import Prices: Another inflation related figure will be released on Friday at 7:00 GMT. Import prices also impact consumer prices. After a big drop of 0.9% last month, prices of imported goods are predicted to rise by 0.5% this time.
14. Consumer Confidence: Last but not least, Eurostat publishes this survey of 2300 consumers. It has been rising very slowly and staying negative in recent months, moving up to -18 – light pessimism. It’s predicted to remain at this level. Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week higher, reaching 1.5015, and then fell down, and up again, etc. – perfect range trading. It finally closed at 1.4859, in the lower area of the range.

I’ve modified some of the lines from last week’s EUR/USD outlook. The first and most important lines are the range line – 1.48 from below and 1.5050 from above. Looking up, 1.5280 was the support line when the Euro traded high during the summer of 2008.

Looking down, I marked 1.4626 as a minor resistance line, since it was a swing that the Euro made not so long ago. Below that, 1.4444 is a minor support line, serving as a resistance line not so long ago.

For more technical analyses about this pair, I recommend reading the following articles on the web:

• Casey Stubbs shows where the Euro has strong support.
• Mohammed Isah shows that the long term uptrend continues to provide support.
• The Geek Who Knows provides his weekly outlook for the pair.

I’m neutral on the pair, now that the EUR/USD trading is dominated by a range.

The longer the range trading – the bigger chance for a downfall.

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

In Australia, RBA Assistant Governor  Dr. Guy Debelle will speak also today, and might move the Aussie.

European Current Account is predicted to remain negative, but with a smaller deficit – 2.7 billion. Later in Europe, the Belgium NBB Business Climate is expected to show a small improvement, rising from -23.6 to -21.3. Still negative.

In Britain, all eyes will look at the monthly Retail Sales. They’re expected to rise by 0.4% after falling last month. This figure is quite volatile. Also in Britain, the important BBA Mortgage Approvals is predicted to keep on the good momentum and rise from 31.2K to 32.3K.

For more on GBP/USD, check out the British Pound Outlook.

In the US, finally there’s a significant figure and not only words… Unemployment Claims are predicted to rise again, from 522K to 548K, after improving recently.

Existing Home Sales are expected to continue rising, as American Housing is off the bottom – from 4.77 million to 4.80 million. Also in the US, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will speak.

In Canada, the qaurterly BOC Monetary Policy Report is published today and will give some insight on the Canadian economy and for future interest rate changes. After the release, BOC Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, and might receive tough questions.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian Dollar Outlook.

Happy forex trading!