USD/CAD Outlook – February 15-19

In the past week, the loonie gained nice ground against the greenback. The upcoming week provides many important indicators. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD.CAD graph with resistance and support lines marked. Click to enlarge:

USD/CAD Forecast

The most important release is CPI. Can prices pick up and accelerate the pace of rate hikes? Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow.

  1. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. After a few strong months, this indicator rose by only 0.1% last month. Manufacturers are predicted to report a slightly higher volume of sales this time – 0.4%. This goes together with Canada’s slow and steady growth.
  2. Wholesale Sales: Published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Although being far from the consumers, also wholesalers have a significant impact on the economy. They reported a nice jump in sales last month – 2.5%. A slower rise is expected this time – 1.7%.
  3. David Longworth speaks: Talks on Wednesday at 17:30 GMT.  David Longworth is about to end his term as BOC Deputy Governor quite soon, so he may feel free to speak his mind about the economy and the bank’s policy – currently sticking to a projected rate hike in June 2010.
  4. CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Canadian prices jumped two months ago, sparking expectations of a rate hike, but they fell last month by 0.3% erasing those hopes. This time, CPI is expected to get “back to normal” with a rise of 0.3% while Core CPI, no less important, is expected to rise by 0.3%.
  5. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Foreigners have shown their confidence in the Canadian economy as they doubled their investments last month to 10.5 billion. A drop to 7.5 billion is predicted this time. Note that the Russian central bank is fond of the Canadian dollar.
  6. BOC Review: Published on Thursday at 15:30 GMT. The central bank publishes a thorough review of the economy, showing what figures they examine when making policy decisions. Special finding could sure move the loonie.
  7. Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. This consumer-centric indicator disappointed with a drop last month. Also core retail sales didn’t help too much as they stayed unchanged. Rises of 0.5% are expected in both indicators, showing that Canadian consumers are back to normal.
  8. Leading Index: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. Although most of this indicator’s components have already been published, it still has an impact. Last month saw a neat rise of 1.5%, but this time it’s predicted to rise only by half that number 0.8%.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

At the beginning of the week, USD/CAD traded high, in the extended range that followed the release of the American NFP. It later fell below the minor 1.0530 support line and managed to close below it.

1.0532 turns into a resistance line, an opposite role than in last week’s outlook. The next resistance line is major – 1.0780, an extension of the long lasting range.

1.0850 is the next line of resistance, serving as a peak before USD/CAD entered the current range. Even higher, 1.1130 was a stubborn resistance line a few times during 2009.

Below, 1.04 continues to provide strong support, being the bottom line of a wider range that accompanies us for quite some time. Even lower, 1.02 was the lowest level in 2009, and the pair also got close to it in 2010. Parity is far below – it won’t be reached soon.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Canada’s strong economy, as seen once again in the employment figures, is moving the currency higher, and there’s more room for gains.

Further reading:

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