In the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard, delivers a speech titled “The Global Recovery and Monetary Policy” at the Institute of Regulation and Risk, in Tokyo. And drops subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

In Canada, New Motor Vehicle Sales, data that is released monthly and measuring the change in number of new cars and trucks sold domestically, is about to rise by 0.5% and It’s a sign of consumer confidence.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

Moving to Europe, Industrial Production, data that is released monthly and measuring the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced, is about to rise by 0.4%. It’s a leading indicator of economic health and tends to have a relatively mild impact because Germany and France that account for about half of the Eurozone’s economy.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, External Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); Member Adam Posen participates in a panel discussion at the Barclays Capital Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference 2010, in New York. And impact on the future monetary policy.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is about to rise in 0.6%, data that is released monthly and measuring the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers.

In New Zealand, Retail Sales, the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending released monthly data that measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, is about to droop down by 0.7% and accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

More in New Zealand, Retail Sales Ex Autos is about to droop down from 1.1% to -0.4%, data that is released monthly and measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend.

In Japan, Business Survey Index (BSI) manufacturing index shows and optimistic result of 7.8. This survey is used to predict the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Tankan Survey.

Later in Japan, Revised Industrial Production, released monthly data that measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. is about to rise by 1% and production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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The most popular pair, EUR/USD, recently enjoyed some gains, but didn’t breach significant technical levels. I see it as a rise before the fall. What do you think? Anyway, let’s start the review:

Japan provides a strong start to the day with a rate decision. The Overnight Call Rate isn’t expected to move from 0.1%. It will be interesting to see how the Monetary Policy Statement will be: the wording will shake the yen. Afterwards, the BOJ will hold a press conference, and this will also shake the yen.

At the end of the day, Japan’s BSI Manufacturing Index is expected to rise to 15.3 points.

Busy day in Britain today: the Claimant Count Change is expected to show a rise of 8,700 jobs after a disappointing rise of 23,500 jobs last time. The Unemployment Rate, which relates to the month of January, is expected to remain unchanged at 7.8%.

At the same time, the MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. They’re expected to show if any of the bankers voted to expand the Quantitative Easing program, after 200 billion pounds were used.

For the Pound’s technical levels, read the GBP/USD forecast.

In Europe, the only event due today is a speech by Axel Weber, the leading candidate to replace Trichet as the president of the ECB. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Canada, Wholesale Sales are expected to rise by 0.6%, following a rise of 0.7% last month. The Canadian dollar holds on to its gains at the moment. For more, read the USD/CAD forecast.

In the US, producer prices will move the dollar. After a jump of 1.4%, PPI is expected to drop by 0.2% this time, indicating that no inflation is in the horizon. Also Core PPI is predicted to remain mild – a small rise of 0.1%.

One day after the rate decision, Ben Bernanke testify alongside Paul Volcker, a former head of the Federal Reserve, about the the central bank’s powers and the meaning for monetary policy. While the agenda isn’t rates, Bernanke can always shake the markets.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

French Consumer Spending start the day with an expected 0.3% rise, less than last month rise. EUR/USD is falling. For more on this currency, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Britain, a day after the disappointing final GDP release, the MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. They will show if some members suggested expanding the QE program at the last meeting. A consensus is expected. If any member suggested expanding the program, GBP/USD will get another blow.

Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are predicted to show a stable number 43.3, only 100 more than last month. For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

Canadian GDP will be of interest to loonie traders. Canada’s monthly GDP release is expected to show another month of modest growth, at 0.3% rather than 0.4% last time.

For more on the loonie, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, Personal Spending is predicted to show a rise of 0.6%, while personal income is expected to grow by 0.4%. These numbers will help the greenback. The University of Michigan is expected to to revise its highly regarded Consumer Sentiment survey from 73.4 to 74 points.

The more important event is New Home Sales which are expected to rise from 430 to 442K. Looking at yesterday’s excellent Existing Home Sales, this figure could be better.

Just before the day ends, Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index is predicted to drop to 11.2 points. Also in Japan – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released but they aren’t expected to bring any major news.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee

Arabic version of the weekly outlook

Ben Bernanke’s mixed message in the FOMC Statement will continue to shake the markets for quite some time. He managed to keep the markets balanced for a short period of 6 hours, before the bulls began to rage. OK, let’s start the review:

Monday, December 21st: Japanese Trade Balance is the first notable event of the week, and it will be followed by the BOJ Monthly Report.

In Canada, Retail Sales are predicted to rise at a more moderate pace than last month. The core figure is expected to follow. The Canadian dollar held strong against the greenback’s strength, with rising inflation numbers.

In New Zealand, Current Account will impact the kiwi – it’s expected to turn negative this time.

Tuesday, December 22nd: The GfK German Consumer Climate is expected to remain stable, while the Belgium NBB Business Climate is predicted to improve significantly. The ZEW survey was the first indicator to hit the Euro last week, and certainly not the last.

The British Current Account is expected to improve to a smaller deficit, and also the recession in Q3 is expected to be revised upwards to only 0.1% in the final release of British GDP.

American Final GDP isn’t expected to move from the second release. It’s predicted to show an annualized growth of 2.8% in Q3.

American Existing Home Sales are predicted to continue the leap that was reported last month and rise even more – to 6.31 million. This expansion will get a warm welcome.

New Zealand closes a day full of GDP release, with a rise of 0.4% in Q3 GDP, following a 0.1% growth rate in Q2.

Wednesday, December 23rd: British MPC Meeting Minutes will be of interest to cable traders. It will be interesting to see if one of the members supported the expansion of the QE program. Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected.

Canadian monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.3%, after a 0.4% rise last month. This is the first indicator of Q4 GDP.

In the US, Personal Spending will be of interest – it’s expected to rise by 0.6%. New Home Sales is the complementary release of Tuesday’s existing home sales, and it’s also expected to post a nice rise to 442K.

Japan closes the day with the BSI Manufacturing Index and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Friday morning’s meeting.

Thursday, December 24th: Most of the world is already on holiday on Christmas Eve, but important American figures are released.

Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise by 0.4% while Core Durable Goods Orders, no less important, are predicted to rise by 0.9%. Both figures have fallen last time.

Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to drop to 471K, after rising too much last month.

Friday, December 25th: On Christmas day, only the Japanese are working. Household Spending is expected to rise, while the Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show continuing deflation. Japanese Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up to 5.2%.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages, which will mostly focus on the technical analysis, as there aren’t many fundamentals…

In the meantime, I’ll leave you with my article about Forex Binary Options, that caused interest, especially offline.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Although the dollar weakens, it doesn’t affect all currencies. Mervyn King sent the Pound down yesterday. On the other side of the channel, EUR/USD is continuing upwards. Casey Stubbs wrote a fresh technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Australia’s MI Leading Index started the day with a 1.1 rise, and last month’s figure was revised upwards.

In Switzerland, the strong Swiss Franc is expecting the Retail Sales publication. It’s expected to rise by 1%, after rising by 0.9% last month.Later on, the ZEW Economic Expectations are due.

For more on the Swissy, read the USD/CHF Outlook.

In Britain, the beaten Pound expects a major indicator today – Claimant Count Change. The rise in British unemployment claims is the earliest indicator of unemployment. After standing on 24.9K last month, it’s expected to stand on 24.7K this time.

British Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 7.8% to 8%. Although this is a late figure, it’s quoted by the media and impacts policymakers. The Average Earnings Index is expected to rise by 2.1%, after a 2.5% rise last time.

For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD Outlook.

It’s Europe’s turn for CPI. It’s expected to decline by 0.2%, after the same fall last month. Core CPI is expected to rise only 1.2%, less than last month’s 1.3%.

For more on Euro’s week, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

In Canada, Manufacturing Sales are expected to rise by 2.4%, and might help the loonie. Read more on USD/CAD.

American Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3%, after being unchanged last time. Core CPI is expected to edge up by 0.1%, like last month.

TIC Long-Term Purchases, representing cash flow, are expected to squeeze from 90.7 to 65 billion. This usually moves the dollar across the board.

Also in the US: Current Account is predicted to show a smaller deficit this time, of “only” 92 billion. The Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to rise from 68.5% to 69.1%. Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.7% after a 0.5% last month.

Japan closes the day with two figures: BSI Manufacturing Index and the Tertiary Industry Activity which is expected to rise by 0.6%, after a 0.1% rise last month.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Monday, September 14th: For traders of the mighty kiwi, the week begins very early, on Sunday at 22:45 GMT with Retail Sales with are expected to rise.

Swiss PPI is published in the morning and is expected to remain stable. European Industrial Production is predicted to drop again, this time by 0.4%.

Near the end of the day, British RICS House Price Balance is expected to fall by 0.1% (delayed from last week).

Tuesday, September 15th: Australia starts the day with Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Housing Starts which are expected to turn positive.

British prices are expected to show a smaller rise. Following the CPI, Inflation Report Hearings will also shed some light on British inflation.

In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to continue rising, pushing EUR/USD higher.

American Retail Sales (and Core Retail Sales) are expected to turn positive. Also prices, as reflected in the PPI, carry high expectations.

Also note the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories and Ben Bernanke’s the all-important speech about the crisis.

Wednesday, September, 16th: Australia’s MI Leading Index starts the day down under.

Swiss Retail Sales are on the rise, and will probably do it again, this time by 1.1%. Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations will follow.

British Claimant Count Change is the first and foremost employment figure. It’s expected to remain stable. British Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 8%. Will GBP/USD stay behind on this as well?

European CPI isn’t expected to signal the end of deflation: it’s expected to fall again.

American CPI is expected to be different, and rise by 0.4% after falling last time. Core CPI is also expected to edge upwards.

TIC Long-Term Purchases, representing the cash flow in and out of the US, are expected to squeeze to 60 billion. Also in the US, Current Account, Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production which is expected to rise by 0.5%.

Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity is expected to continue rising, this time by 0.6%. Also not the Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index.

Thursday, September 17th: A new interest rate is due in Japan. No change is expected in the Overnight Call Rate, expected to remain at 0.1%. The focus will turn to the Monetary Policy Statement and the accompanying BOJ Press Conference.

British Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.5%, following last month’s rise. Also note CBI Industrial Order Expectations, which are still very low.

It’s Canada’s turn for the CPI release. Core CPI and CPI have been weak. Will it continue?

Switzerland’s quarterly rate decision is due. The Libor Rate is expected to stay at 0.25%. The SNB hasn’t hesitated to intervene in the markets. Will they do it again? We’ll know at the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. USD/CHF is not far from parity.

In the US, Building Permits are expected to rise to 580K. Housing Starts are predicted to rise to 590K. American housing is off the bottom. Will it get better?

Unemployment Claims, which made a surprise last week, are expected to rise back to 562K. Also note the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is expected to rise to 8.1 points.

Friday, September 18th: German PPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, after posting a big drop last time. European Current Account is predicted to show a smaller deficit this time.

British Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to grow, showing that the government lends more money.

Canadian Wholesale Sales close the week.

These are the major events for this week. I’ll later post more detailed coverages on specific currencies.

Note: There will be no forex weekly outlook next week, since I’ll be on holiday.

Britain’s Rightmove HPI starts the forex trading week. Last month it rose by 2.4%. GBP/USD is awaiting an interesting week. Read my special coverage – British Pound Outlook.

In Japan, the BSI Manufacturing Index is published early in the week. Last time it stood on -66. The more interesting figure is the Tertiary Industry Activity which is predicted to turn positive and rise by 2.3% after falling by 4%.

In Europe,the German Ifo Business Climate is a highly regarded indicator for the German economy and for the whole continent. It’s expected to continue the small rise and proceed to 85.1. This will shake the Euro.

Later in Europe, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak in Madrid. This time, no big surprises are expected.

In Canada, Foreign Securities Purchases are published and are expected to squeeze to 4.27 billion. For more on the loonie, check out the Canadian Dollar Outlook.

For those of you that don’t find big indicators today, don’t worry – the week gets much more interesting later on, especially with Wednesday’s FOMC Statement. Check out the Forex Weekly Outlook for more details.

Happy forex trading!

US Secretary of Treasury, Timothy Geithner, is due to deliver a speech today at 12:45 GMT, in which he’ll present the new plan to relieve American banks of their toxic assets. The motivation of this plan is to insert fresh, non-toxic capital into the banks, in order to encourage them to lend. More lending means more stimulus for the economy. The plan is currently planned to be in a size of $500 billion, but might rise to $1 trillion.

The problem with this plan, is that it involves more public spending – more dollar printing. The plan aims to spend $75 to $100 billion from the already approved stimulus package. The rest will come from the private sector. Sounds OK, right? No extra spending – no news.

But there’s an expected dependency on the private sector, a promise that might not be fulfilled. According to Reuters (emphasis mine)

Under the program Geithner has crafted, the government will provide the lion’s share of the funding to buy up soured assets to encourage private investors to participate.

So, more public money may be spent here. More dollars could be printed. While this could be good for the economy, it isn’t good for the US dollar.

The leakage of the toxic asset plan  already has an impact on forex trading. The dollar weakened against most currencies. EUR/USD now trades at 1.3680. It started the forex week with a weekend gap, and already tested the 1.3730 which was last week’s high.

Also the British Pound, Swiss Franc made gains against the dollar. Stronger gains were made by the Aussie and the Kiwi.

Only the Japanese Yen is suffering. The Japanese Yen was hit by the bad BSI Manufacturing Index that plunged to -66, much worse than early expectations of -47. 

I’ll be following the official announcement of the Toxic Asset plan by Geithner. It’ll be interesting to see if the greenback will take one step lower today, on this Toxic Dollar Plan.

For a general review of the rest of the week, check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.

Update 1: Timothy Geithner said that in order to get out of the crisis, the risks need to be taken. 

Update 2: PIMCO already said they would participate in the Toxic Assets plan, and called it a win-win deal.

Update 3: Existing Home Sales were better than expected. Is American Housing above the bottom?

Jean-Claude Trichet is in Mexico, and will speak about the financial crisis and commodity prices. Will he have something to say about Ben Bernanke’s huge dollar printing move? Will the ECB act on the Euro?

In Japan, the BSI Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to -47.3, lower than last month’s -44.5. 

In Europe, Trade Balance will be published and is expected to show a deficit of 1.9 billion. Note that this is a late figure, after Germany and France already published their figures.

In the US, Existing Home Sales are expected to squeeze down to 4.45M (annually adjusted), after last month’s figure of 4.49M. Last week’s housing data was better than expected, maybe even hitting a bottom, so a better figure won’t be a big surprise.

That’s it for today. Check out the Forex Weekly Outlook for seeing what’s next this week.

And, here’s a great video about the credit crisis. Thanks to Eric deCarbonnel from Market Skeptics for pointing this out.

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Will the dollar’s fall resume? Will Europe join the Forex War?

Monday, March 23rd: Japan starts the week with the quarterly BSI Manufacturing Index, which is expected to be negative, at -47.3. Later, European Trade Balance is expected to show a deficit of 1.9B.

In the US, Existing Home Sales are expected to squeeze to 4.45 million, slightly lower than last month. Given last week’s not-so-bad housing data, it can be better. Has American housing reached a bottom?

Tuesday, March 24th: Japan will start Tuesday as well, with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. In Europe, French Consumer Spending will start the day.

Afterwards, French, German, and all-European Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will dominate the scene, predicted to be quite unchanged. The European Current Account will also be released and is expected to be negative.

In Britain, CPI will be released and it’s expected to stand at 2.6% (annually adjusted). Shortly later the Inflation Report Hearings will also be published in the UK.

Lots of news in Britain and in Europe on Tuesday. EUR/GBP might break resistance, after it bounced last week.

American news will be dominated by a testament from Ben Bernanke. It will overshadow the HPI, expected to drop by 0.7%. Note a speech by BoE’s Mervyn King and influential MPC member David Blanchflower in Britain. 

And just before the end of the day, Japanese Trade Balance will be published. Expectations are for a deficit of 0.28 trillion.

Wednesday, March 25th: Australia’s RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will start the day with a speech.

In Europe, the German Ifo Business Climate is expected to stand at 82.2 points and will draw attention. In Britain, CBI Realized Sales are expected to further decline to -35.

In the US, there are lots of figures: Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders are both expected to fall by about 2%. Later New Home Sales are expected to stay around last month’s figure of 309K.

New Zealand will publish its Current Account, that is predicted to show a deficit of 4 billion. In Australia, the CB Leading Index is released just before the end of the day.

Thursday, March 26th: In Europe, the GfK German Consumer Climate is widely expected to stay unchanged.

In Britain, Nationwide HPI is expected to ease its decline and fall by 1.5%. Later in Britain, Retail Sales are expected to turn negative and fall by 0.3%.

In the US, Unemployment Claims are expected to stay stable at 650K. Final GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to be revised downwards to a fall of 6.6% (annually adjusted).

In New Zealand, there are two major releases: GDP is expected to show a contraction of 1.1%. Trade Balance is expected to be almost even, with a surplus of 26 million.

In Japan, Tokyo Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% annually, almost unchanged. Japanese Retail Sales are predicated to plunge by 3.6%.

Friday, March 27th: British Current Account is expected to show a deficit of 5.8 billion. Final GDP is probably going to be unchanged, showing negative growth of 1.5%.

In Europe, Industrial New Orders are expected to fall by 6% (!). The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is predicted to further decline, to -1.55.

In America, Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending aren’t expected to bring any big news. Near the end of the day, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to be left almost unchanged, at 56.7.

Happy Forex Trading!