Forex Crunch » CB Consumer Confidence

EUR/USD – This is Resistance

Yohay — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 08:06:33 +0000

EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.30 line and currently fails to make the breakout that many people are waiting for – resistance is very strong. In the narrowing uptrend channel, it will soon have to make a decision.

EUR/USD already crossed the psychological level of 1.30 on July 16th, peaking at 1.3007. 4 days later, it also crossed this line, reaching a higher peak – 1.3027. It also traded above the line yesterday and today, with the recent peak being 1.3046. But it doesn’t really make the strong breakout that many people are expecting.

In the graph above (you can click to enlarge), you can see the narrowing uptrend channel on a daily graph. While the Euro can continue rising inside the channel, its steepness will probably not hold the pair for a long time – it will have to choose a direction – breaking above the channel and running faster, or sliding sideways and eventually falling out of it.

Regarding support and resistance lines, 1.3114 is a strong resistance line, followed by 1.3267 and 1.3435. Below, 1.2880 and 1.2670 are important lines. More lines can be seen in the EUR/USD forecast.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

More US weakness has sent the pair higher. The latest sign was the CB Consumer Confidence, that fell sharply to 50.4 points. Today’s durable goods orders from the US could supply more fuel. But this isn’t enough. The Euro needs its own good figures to rise.

Tomorrow, Thursday, the Euro will get a figure that usually exceeds expectations – the German unemployment change. Germany is doing far better than the other countries in the Euro-zone. If the figure will be good once again, the Euro could ride on it. There are no other significant European figures that day.

But if it doesn’t make it, Friday brings a related figure, but for the whole region – the European unemployment rate. At 10%, no good news are expected. There are other figures on Friday, but this is the most important one. So, Thursday has a better chance of seeing an upside breakout in EUR/USD.

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Forex Daily Outlook – July 27 2010

anat — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 21:00:10 +0000

U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and U.S. Composite-20 House Price Index are the main events today. Here is an outlook on the activities at hand.

In the US, CB Consumer Confidence forecasted to continue decreasing from 52.9 to 51.5 points following 63.3 points in May.

More in the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI measuring change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas and a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health is expected a 3.8% rise, similar to the previous month.

Finally in the US, Richmond Manufacturing Index based on a survey of about 100 manufacturers in the Richmond area which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including shipments, new orders, and employment is predicted a 3 point drop to 20 points.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, GfK German Consumer Climate expected a 0.1 point rise following two months halt at 3.5 points

More in Europe, M3 Money Supply measuring change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks forecasted to return to -0.1% following -0.2% in May.

Later in Europe, German Import Prices expected to continue rising by 0.4% following 0.6% rise in May.

Finally in Europe, Private loans measuring change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector forecasted 0.1% rise to 0.3%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, CBI Realized Sales based on a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume predicted to reach -3 points a nice recovery from -18 points in May but still requires a further rise above 0.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, CB Leading Index measuring the change in the level of a composite index based on 7 economic indicators is expected a small rise from 0.1% in April.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, UBS Consumption Indicator index is likely to remain around 1.74 points following the small drop in May.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Binary Options Setups – July 26-30

Yohay — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 09:20:41 +0000

This week consists of quite a few market moving events that could provide opportunities for binary options trading. Here are 7 events with potential market reactions and binary options setups.

Binary options can be used as an alternative to the traditional stop loss, as a tool for protecting against false breakouts and lots more. One-hour binary options can be used for trading on news events.

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I’ve selected the events and the setups based on study already done for the forex weekly outlooks, and the potential reactions to surprises. Some events collide with each other and could offset each other. These events weren’t selected.

Quick explanation:

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PUT options – if the price closes below the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

OK, let’s review the events:

US New Home Sales: Monday 14:00 GMT. Market expectations currently stand on 317K. 450K or higher – PUT option on EUR/USD. 250K or lower, CALL option on EUR/USD.
CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00 GMT. Market expects a drop from 52.9 to 51.5, a drop under 48 – CALL option on EUR/USD. A rise above 55 – PUT option on EUR/USD.
Australian CPI: Wednesday 1:30 GMT. Market expects +1%. 1.4% or higher – CALL option on AUD/USD, 0.6% or lower – PUT option on AUD/USD.
US Core Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30 GMT. Market expects +0.6%. +1.2% or higher, PUT option on EUR/USD, negative outcome, CALL option on EUR/USD.
New Zealand Rate Decision: Wednesday, 21:00 GMT. Market expects rates to rise from 2.75% to 3%. If it remains unchanged, PUT option on NZD/USD, A raise to 3.25%, CALL option on NZD/USD.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday 12:30 GMT. Market expects 456K. 480K or higher – CALL option on EUR/USD. Below 430K – PUT option on EUR/USD.
KOF Economic Barometer: Friday, 9:30 GMT. Market expects 2.32 points. Below 2.15 – CALL option on USD/CHF. Above 2.42 – PUT option on USD/CHF.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means investment advice.

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Forex Weekly Outlook – July 26-30

Yohay — Sun, 25 Jul 2010 05:07:04 +0000

The upcoming week is dominated by American releases, with the best kept for last – the first release of GDP for the second quarter. Here’s an outlook for the major market movers this week.

Friday’s European stress tests will still be felt in the markets at the start of the new week. Will the weak US figures continue hurting the dollar? Or is it going to change?

American New Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Sales of new homes are very dependent on government stimulus, as we’ve seen in recent releases. From a leap to 446K to months ago, the number of new sales (annualized) dropped to 300K last month, hurting the dollar. A significant rise is expected this time.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This major survey of 5,000 people always shakes the markets. After reaching 63.3 points two months ago, the indicator plunged to 52.9 last month – showing the fear of a double-dip recession. A small recovery is expected this time.
US Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The 12 regional districts of the Federal Reserve team to produce economic analysis which precedes the FOMC meeting two weeks later. We’ll get to see how the economy is doing, and a hint towards the next decision. Will a fear of a double-tip recession be expressed in the Beige Book?
US Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Manufacturing has been quite unstable in recent months – a drop of 1.3% was followed by a leap of 3% and then by a drop of 0. 6% last month. Also the core figure, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, hasn’t been much more stable. This event always shakes the markets. A significant rise is necessary for the dollar to gain.
New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard will probably raise the rates for a second time in a row, from the current rate of 2.75% to 3%. While inflation isn’t going wild in New Zealand, the economy is doing well, prompting another hike now. The kiwi and Aussie will move on the rate decision as well as the prospects for future moves.
US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. A dip to 429K two weeks ago didn’t impress the markets, as it was disregarded as an error. Jobless claims have proved to be the best indicator towards the Non-Farm Payrolls, and shakes the currency markets every week.
European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s high unemployment rate of 10% is a big burden on the Euro. This rate hardly changed in the past 6 months, and it isn’t expected to change materially now. A drop to 9.7% or lower will boost the Euro, but this isn’t likely.
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This highly regarded composite index reflects the great state of the Swiss economy quite well. After reaching a multi-year high score of 2.25 its expected to tick down, but if it doesn’t fall too much, the Swissy will still enjoy it.
Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP disappointed last month by remaining unchanged, after a great first quarter. But the overall situation in Canada is excellent, so this GDP release should be strong, and can counter a strong GDP release in US happening at the exact same time.
US Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the first release of GDP for the second quarter of 2010. After an excellent end to 2009 (growth of 5.6%), the first quarter was slow (2.7%) and caused serious fears of a double dip recession. This initial release has a strong impact, but it’s not always accurate – last quarter’s number was gradually revised downwards from 3.5% to 2.7%. Anyway, the markets are going to rock.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for specific currency coverages.

Forex Daily Outlook – June 29 2010

anat — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 21:00:20 +0000

Some exciting news in the US with S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, in Britain the Net Lending to Individuals and more interesting events, let’s see what await us today.

In the US, a slit rise in the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence, a survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, and measures the Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;

Later in the US, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) / Case-Shiller (CS) Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI); is about to rise by 1.2%,, released monthly and measures the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas; and It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;

In Canada, a small change of about 0.1% on the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI);, that measures the change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers and as a leading indicator affects the consumer inflation.

More in Canada, Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI); the monthly report that measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers; is about to rise by 1%.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

Moving on to Great Britain, GfK Consumer Confidence, a monthly survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, and measuring the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers, indicates pessimism by drooping to -20 from -18. and a , climate for major purchases, and overall economic situation; indicates pessimism

Later in Great Britain, Net Lending to Individuals monthly reported, that measures the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers is about to rise from 0.48 to 0.98 and affects the consumer spending and confidence.

Finally in Britain, Final Mortgage Approvals is about to rise by 1K

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator, released monthly and measures the level of a composite index based on 5 consumer-based economic indicators;

In Japan, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI); a monthly survey of about 300 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, and measurers the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; indicates industry expansion 54.7

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Forex Weekly Outlook – June 28 – July 2

Yohay — Sat, 26 Jun 2010 20:00:37 +0000

The beginning of the new month is busy as always, culminating with the Non-Farm Payrolls. There are lots of other major events as well. Here’s an outlook for the market-moving events that are awaiting us.

The Chinese central bank lifted the peg on the yuan, in a move that was anticipated for a long time. Commodity currencies enjoyed it, while others currencies had only limited gains against the dollar. This gap will probably continue this week as well. Let’s start:

American Personal Spending: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. This is an important indicator of the economy – more spending means more economic activity. In the past three months, the growth rate of spending fell short of expectations, and became worrying last month when it remained unchanged. A drop in spending will rock the markets.
American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board has shown great optimism in recent months. The index reached 63.3 points, the highest level in over two years. This major survey of 5,000 consumers is expected to drop this time to 62.6 points.
British Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The final version of Britain’s GDP is expected to confirm the improved second release and show a growth rate of 0.3% in the first quarter. Only an upwards revision of the weak growth rate will boost the Pound. The next quarters will probably be worse in Britain, with budget cuts expected to dampen the recovery.
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. This composite index is highly regarded and moves the Swissy. Last month saw a significant rise from 2.05 to 2.16 – a score which was better than expected. The Swiss economy is doing well, and so is their currency, especially against the Euro. A small dip to 2.14 is expected now.
American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. The report for the private sector is sometimes called the “mini Non-Farm Payrolls”. In many months, it didn’t predict the direction of the NFP, but this changed last month, as the weak growth in the private sector was reflected in the NFP 2 days later. Three months of job gains will probably be followed by a fourth one. Expectations stand on a gain of 61K jobs.
Canadian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s GDP for the month of March, that finished Q1, was excellent - 0.6%. This exceeded expectations and completed an annual growth rate of 6.1% in Q1. A modest rise of 0.2% is expected this time.
Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. This fresh quarterly indicator always rocks the markets. 1,200 large manufacturers have shown less pessimism in Q1 as the core climbed from -24 to -14, as expected. The number for Q2 is expected to be slightly better, but still in the negative zone: -3.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly figure is still causing trouble for the dollar. Jobless claims refuse to drop below 430K, and even rise. A significant drop is necessary in order to see a big leap in the NFP. This is the last job-related figure before the NFP. A small rise from 457K to 461K is expected now.
American Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The number of closed contracts for homes leaped in the past three months at very strong rates – 8.2%, 5.3% and 6%. This time, a drop will probably be seen, cooling down the markets, although its scale will probably be minor – 0.5%.
American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector have been positive in the past 10 months, sending the score above 50 – meaning economic expansion. Last month saw a small, yet expected drop from 60.4 to 59.7 points. Another drop is expected now.
Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The number one event in forex was worrying last month. A big jump was recorded – 432K, but this came almost only from the public sector the government’s hiring for the decennial census. Private sector growth was weak. One point of light was seen though – the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 9.7%. Without government aid, Non-Farm Payrolls are now expected to correct and drop by 100K. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.7%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for outlooks on specific currencies.

Forex Daily Outlook – May 25 2010

anat — Mon, 24 May 2010 21:00:38 +0000

US Consumer Confidence is expected to continue its rise as well as Composite-20 HPI. US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech in London and House Price Index is expected to rise. Let us see what awaits us today.

In the US, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to continue its rise by 1.2 additional points following the remarkable score of 57.9 points in April which exceeded the forecast. Apparently US economic recovery is gaining pace.

Later in the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI measuring the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas is expected to increase by 2.5% following April’s increase of 0.6% means good news for investors and the housing industry.

More in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech titled “The Road to Economic Recovery Following the Financial Crisis” at the European Economics and Financial Center, in London. Expected to affect interest rates and may provide hints on future monetary policy.

Finally in the US, House Price Index is expected to reach 0.0% after April’s decrease of -0.2% and Richmond Manufacturing Index is foreseen a drop of 5 points from 30 points in April.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Industrial New Orders are hoped to increase by 2.3% following 0.8% more than in April.

Also in Europe, Italian Retail Sales are expected to remain 0.1% as in April.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Revised Gross Domestic Product, released monthly, is expecting an annualized growth of 0.3%, 0.1% more than in the previous quarter which is a hopeful sign for the British market.

More in Great Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are also hoped to increase by 3400 compared to 34.9 K in April indicates a rise in the housing market demand.

Finally in Britain, Index of Services measuring the change in the total Gross Value Added of the private and government services sectors is predicted to drop by 0.2% from 0.4% in April.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Inflation Expectations are assumed to remain unchanged from 2.7% in the previous quarter.

In Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator is also believed to remain around 1.71 points

In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minute is released and shedding light on economic conditions that influenced interest rates decisions.

More in Japan, Corporate Services Price Index is expected to remain -1.1%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Forex Weekly Outlook – May 24-28

Yohay — Sun, 23 May 2010 14:14:10 +0000

GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.

The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators. Let’s start:

American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?

That’s it for the major events this week. Have a great one!

Crosses for Avoiding American Risk Events

Yohay — Fri, 21 May 2010 09:00:02 +0000

When you’re trading on a news event from some country, a cross may be more suitable – this bypasses the uncertainty with American releases and the unexpected reaction to them.

Fundamental traders check the fundamental economic indicators, interest rates and prospects and act according to them. When a good figure is published for certain country, it’s currency will usually rise, and when the economic indicator is weak, the currency will fall. The dollar is different:

Since the financial crisis broke out, the dollar sometimes reacts differently – rises on bad US figures – traders flock to the “safe haven” dollar in times of trouble, and ditch it on good US figures, as they have “risk appetite”. In recent months, the dollar behavior varies – it sometimes reacts “normally” to American indicators and sometimes acts by the risk factor.

But the other currencies continue to react normally to their own indicators. The Euro drops on a rise in unemployment and the Aussie enjoys an unexpected rate hike.

Example

On March 30th, the final release for Britain’s GDP came out better than expected – a rise of 0.4%. The Pound reacted with a rise across the board. But a few hours later, American CB Consumer Confidence was due. This is a major market mover.

The result was eventually better than expected,the markets moved strongly in both directions and the dollar eventually won the event – GBP/USD lost a significant part of its gains.

But the outcome of the American figure and the market’s reaction aren’t known after the British release. There are five and a half hours, and the trader wants to ride on the Pound.

So here, it would be wiser to trade the Pound against another currency. In this case, it could be the Euro that generally suffers from the Greek crisis, a currency such as the Aussie that didn’t get any important news on the same day or the yen.

Why pick the yen? Earlier on the same day, Japanese industrial production dropped by 0.9%, significantly worse than expected. The yen was on the fall, and the Pound was on the rise. GBP/JPY didn’t drop like GBP/USD, but continued rising after the release of the American CB Consumer Confidence.

There are lots of similar examples. Traders should keep an open mind to crosses, as they can avoid high risk events in the US.

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Dollar Bulls Raging – Will the trend continue?

Yohay — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 22:22:51 +0000

The US dollar is on the move – fresh American data and fresh European worries send EUR/USD to new lows.Also other currencies are surrendering to the dollar – the US dollar index gave us signs of this breakout last week. Now it happens. You can guess which currency stands firm against the dollar. A sustainable trend still needs to be confirmed.

The US continues to show signs of recovery. The CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 57.9 points, the highest since the eve of Lehman Brothers’ collapse. This also exceeded early expectations for a rise to 53.6 points. American confidence was met with a sign of distrust in Europe:

It was Standard and Poors’ turn to downgrade Greece’s credit rating. They lowered it to “junk”. It can’t go lower from here. While Greece is the spotlight of the debt crisis for many months, the big fear is from contagion.

S&P also showed the way to contagion – Portugal, that already got downgraded a few week’s ago by another agency, was beaten by S&P – a downgrade from A+ to A-, worse than expected. Spain,Ireland and even Italy could be next.

EUR/USD managed to hold above the big barrier of 1.3267 during the day, but this downgrade sent it piercing down through last week’s temporary low of 1.3201. At 1.3150, the road to the significant support line of 1.3080 is open. Reaching this spot will be a full cycle for the Euro, that began a long term rally from this point at March 2009.

But it’s not only the Euro – the Pound, the Swissy, the Aussie and the loonie are all falling against the dollar. They have all lost their recent achievements – USD/CAD parity is drifting away.

This brings the US dollar index to 82.40 – above the target of 82.24 which was the peak on March 25th. This index is now at the highest level since May 19th 2009 – we have a significant breakout for this important index.

The one currency that doesn’t give in to the dollar is the Japanese yen – it gains against the dollar, and the yen crosses are falling. For example, the popular Geppy (GBP/JPY), that made an attempt to break above 146 early in the week, is now collapsing to 142.

The gains of the yen show that this is risk aversive trading – it leans on fear for the global economy more than on the US recovery. We will need to see many more positive indicators from the US, especially in the job market, in order to see sustainable gains in the US dollar index.

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