Forex Crunch » central banks

Parity Party for the Swissy

Yohay — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:49:49 +0000

The Swiss Franc has reached parity with the US dollar. Apart from the general weakness of the greenback across the board, also the Swiss National Bank has a role in bringing USD/CHF to 1.

USD/CHF reached a year-to-date low of 0.9960 and trades now at a perfect 1.0000. The pair last reached this rate in April 2008. The Swissy enjoys general dollar weakness – this sent EUR/USD to 1.5140.

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Swiss Franc Outlook – September 14-19 2009

Yohay — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 17:46:35 +0000

The Swiss Franc has been one of the currencies that most enjoyed the dollar’s big fall last week. Together with the very crowded week ahead, the Swissy sure is worth to watch. Here’s an outlook for 5 key events and a technical analysis for USD/CHF.

USD/CHF forex chart with support and resistance lines

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Even the Israeli Intervention is Short-Lived

Yohay — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:22:10 +0000

Last week I was talking about the intervention that the Bank of Israel made in the forex markets, and how it worked. Well, also in a small country like Israel, central bank intervention is short-lived. A lesson for the Swiss National Bank…

USD/ILS fell and fell, hurting Israeli exports, many of them to the US – the Israeli hi-tech industry. Stanley Fisher, Governor of the Bank of Israel, refused to let it happen, and began buying dollars early last week. While the dollar was collapsing in the world, it gained 4% against the Israeli shekel.

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Central Bank Intervention – The Israeli Way

Yohay — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 14:04:52 +0000

The Israeli Central Bank refused to accept the collapse of the dollar at the beginning of the week, and sent the local currency down by 4%, when the dollar lost ground everywhere. This can happen only in small countries.

USD/ILS is a currency pair that doesn’t receive high volumes or much attention. Israel is a small country that is still the center of an ongoing conflict. Despite the conflict, the economy is doing rather well.

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Forex Articles for the Weekend – July 18 2009

Yohay — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 07:02:44 +0000

Here’s a bunch of interesting forex-related articles. All of them have a scope of more than a single day’s trading.

James Chen talks about the tactics of scaling in and scaling out of a position.
Adam Kritzer deals with one of my favorite issues: intervention by central banks. He states that the SNB is still committed to such intervention. I claim that the effect of intervention is short-lived.
ForexTVBlog looks into the rising oil prices and their impact on current forex trading.
Eric deCarbonnel points out to an article that paints a grim future for the US dollar.
Casey Stubbs explains how to “hit a home run” with a ral plan.

There’s always lots to read and never enough time. This is especially true after being away for two weeks…

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SNB Intervention – Shortlived Indeed

Yohay — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 21:46:17 +0000

The SNB intervened in the forex market to weaken the Swiss Franc. Though still above the levels before the intervention, USD/CHF has lost its hot air, and is now trading lower. A lesson about central bank interventions.

On Wednesday, the Swiss National Bank intervened in the forex market in order to weaken the Swissy. Switzerland’s export based economy suffers from a strong Franc, and the SNB wanted to help the economy.

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Central Banks Intervention – Great Trade Opportunity

Yohay — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 09:27:10 +0000

In the forex market, huge volume makes even big interventions very hard. The SNB’s intervention had a short lived effect last time, and this time is no different – the correction will come. Such cases are great trade opportunities.

The Swiss National Bank intervened in the forex market on March 12th in order to weaken the Swiss Franc. A weaker currency makes Switzerland’s export driven economy stronger. At first it worked: the Swissy plunged against the US dollar and against the Euro quite fast. Technical barriers were breached.

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Inflation Becoming Irrelevant in Forex

Yohay — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 07:00:26 +0000

Inflation data, that is published all the time is becoming less and less important in these days of a global economic crisis. It doesn’t ignite price action as it used to up to the last summer.

Up to the summer of 2008, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), played a big role among economic indicators. Both figures were closely watched by traders. An unexpected rise in CPI would cause the relevant currency to strengthen, since a rise in prices usually causes the central banks to raise interest rates.

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ECB Rate Decision – A non event

Yohay — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:27:27 +0000

Today, the European Central Bank will make a decision about the interest rate in the Eurozone. This is supposedly the biggest event this week, after last week’s Non Farm Payrolls in the US.

Most economists and analysts are expecting a half a percent cut, from 2.5% to to 2%.

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Forex Daily Analysis – December 18th 2008

Yohay — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 09:07:12 +0000

The US dollar continues to plunge against all the currencies. Even the pund that lagged behind made a move forward. GBP/USD now above 1.56.

The EUR/USD crossed another resistance line at 1.44, and aimed to breach the 1.45 line. Curretly it retracted back a little bit.

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