Forex Daily Outlook – November 6th 2009

The busy week comes to an end with the big announcement of the Non-Farm Payrolls. The job market is lagging behind other indicators. Is this going to change? There are other important events as well. Let’s review them:

The day begins with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement from Australia. After the second rate hike this week, we might see a pause in this policy. Hints are possible in this statement. Later in Australia, Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance.

The AUD/USD went down under the support line of 0.8950 at the beginning of the week but recovered quickly.

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up from 4.1% to 4.2%. USD/CHF isn’t that far from parity once again.

In Europe, France will release its Trade Balance, which is expected to show a smaller deficit. Later, German Factory Orders are expected to continue marching forward, this time by 1%. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

For an excellent technical analysis, read Casey Stubbs’ recent EUR/USD analysis.

In Britain, PPI Input is predicted to turn positive and rise by 1.6% after falling last time. Britain’s prices are currently not a problem. A higher rise will help the Pound make some more gains, after yesterday’s Quantitative Easing was easier than expected. Britain’s Asset Purchase Facility was raised by only 25 billion, below expectations, showing that the economy isn’t htat bad, thus helping the Pound.

In Canada, employment figures are also due. Employment Change is expected to rise by 10K, following last month’s big surprise. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 8.4%, where it fell to surprisingly last month. Another positive surprise will help the Canadian dollar.

Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to drop by 173K. This key event, at 13:30 will cause the markets to move all day. The accompanying figure, the Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 9.9%. A rise to 10%. the big psychological barrier, will cause a big headache for the markets. In such a case, fear will take over once again.

In addition to the key NFP event, there are a few more indicators: Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 0.1%, exactly like last month. Wholesale Inventories are predicted to fall by 0.9% and Consumer Credit is expected to dive by 10 billion dollars.

Also note speeches by FOMC members Charles Evans and Elizabeth Duke.

That’s it for today.

Forex Daily Outlook – September 9th 2009

After the big dollar fall yesterday, the markets have stalled at the new levels. Will the dollar continue tumbling today? A rate decision in New Zealand, the Beige Book and other indicators will be published today. Let’s see what’s on the menu today. Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose by 5.2%, more than 3.7% last time. [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – June 15th 2009

Today’s highlights are American TIC Long-Term Purchases a speech by Timothy Geithner. And there are interesting releases in other parts of the globe. Let’s see what’s up for today: Swiss PPI is predicted to rise by 0.1% after falling last time. The Swiss hope for some rise in prices. This is a critical week for the [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – May 8th 2009

The monthly circus of Non-Farm Payrolls is with us today: expectations got better (-590K), and I believe that it’ll be even better than this. There are a few other important economic figures. Let’s dive in: Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement will start the day. After the impressing employment data in Australia, the decision to leave interest [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – May 7th 2009

Big today today in forex trading: Britain and Europe will make rate decisions, US Unemployment Claims could surprise, and Bank Stress Test Info will also draw attention. Let’s dive into the main events of the day… I apologize before my regular readers – I didn’t publish the forex daily outlook yesterday. Australian employment figures were better [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – April 20th 2009

The forex trading week starts slowly. There are a few indicators from all over the world, but nothing really major. But as seen in previous weeks, weekend gaps can sure appear, especially in the Euro. Let’s see what’s up for today: British Rightmove HPI starts the Forex Week. Last time it rose by 0.9%. Is the [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – April 14th 2009

It’s back to business after the long Easter weekend. The main event for today is American Core Retail Sales. Also note an interesting speech by Bernanke. Here’s what’s up: Australian NAB Business Confidence is a good indicator of the Australian economy. Last time it fell by 22 points. Where will it go this time? American Retail [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – March 24th 2009

The economic calendar is fully packed on Tuesday: PMI data from Europe, price information from Britain and many major speeches fill this day. Take a deep breath… As the day starts in Greenwich, Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be published. After the Swiss and American moves to devalue their currencies, do the heads of BOJ [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – February 18th 2009

Today features lots of US data, with the Building Permits in the center of attention. Also the Meeting Minutes from both Britain and the US will be carefully read by forex traders. Let’s see what’s on the menu today. In Australia, Quarterly Retail Sales rose by only 0.8%, lower than expectations. Despite this, AUD/USD is back [...]

Forex Weekly Outlook – February 9-13 2009

The second week of February begins in a slow pace, with more speeches than real economic data. It gradually gains pace, with Trade Balance in Canada and the US on Wednesday, Australian Employment Data on Thursday, and American Retail Sales on Thursday. On Friday 13th, European GDP will dominate the day, as well as UoM [...]

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