Post Tagged with: "ECB"
European Cliff Hanger – Italy
Italy is becoming too similar to Greece: unsustainable debt, a technocrat government run by an ex-banker and slow moves on reforms. Yet contrary to Greece, Italy is too big to bail. And contrary to Greece, Italy’s problem is mostly a liquidity problem rather than a solvency problem. Italy can certainly avoid PSI, IMF intervention and
Ratings Downgrade Would Trigger a Cataclysmic Sell-Off
The French downgrade, which is rumored as coming any minute, isn’t priced in yet. The actual move means that the core is officially hit by the debt crisis, says Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX. In the interview below, Vecchio discusses actions by the ECB, the decoupling of the US from the rest of the world and
ECB Pauses With Rate Cuts As Expected
The European Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged at 1% as expected. EUR/USD remains stable around the 1.2760, still enjoying the previous gains, until Mario Draghi’s press conference, which could send the euro lower. Stay tuned for a live blog of the event. At 13:30 GMT, Mario Draghi will present the decision, updated forecasts
Conveying a Message of “Business as Usual”? ECB Preview
The first rate decision of the ECB for 2012 will likely not consist of any new unconventional measures nor rate cuts. This comes as the chances of a Greek default are rising, together with distrust among banks. Will Draghi surprise with a bigger move? Probably not, and this may be painful for the single currency.
EUR/USD Jan. 12 – All Eyes on Draghi
Euro dollar is awaiting the European Central Bank at low range, after the warning from Fitch sent it down, but not below critical support. Spanish and Italian bond auctions precede Draghi’s decision and will show if ECB QE is necessary. In addition, the US calender is very busy today. Will Draghi open the road for another
EU self-restraint and a tough approach
Based on reports from journalists who have seen a copy of a draft of Europe’s budget-stability treaty, it appears that the compact may be tougher and more binding on its signatories than previously thought. According to Bloomberg, a country faces sanctions if it fails to reduce its public debt/GDP by five percentage points per year
EUR/USD Dec. 22 – Rising in Range on Thin Air
Euro dollar is making another attempt to move higher, after a breakout yesterday proved to be temporary. Yesterday’s huge indirect QE operation by the ECB is still digested as volume gets thinner before the holiday season. The highly anticipated French downgrade didn’t happen yet. Is S&P waiting for even thinner volume? Today we have important US
Indirect Euro-zone QE at Play?
Spain had a winning streak of bond auctions. It managed to sell more bonds than expected and with falling yields. One reason is the high hopes for the new government, set to assume power soon. Yields rose towards the elections and have been falling since then. Yet not only the high expectations send money towards
EUR/USD Outlook December 19-23
Euro/dollar finally gave in to all the bad news and fell to levels last seen in January. Will we see a new year to date low, or will trading calm down from here? We have quite a few events just before the Christmas holiday. Here is an outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for
3 Reasons for EUR/USD Under 1.30 – Where Now?
Euro.dollar lost the 1.30 line, but didn’t get too far yet. The pair hit a fresh 11 month low at 1.2970. The year-to-date low is around 100 pips away. This continues the terrible week that the euro is experiencing in the aftermath of the EU summit. For this specific move under 1.30, there are two