Forex Daily Outlook – February 26th 2010

The week ends with two revised GDP figures in Britain and in the US, as well as other moving figures. Let’s see what’s awaiting us today.

Early in the day, British GfK Consumer Confidence isn’t expected to move from the negative score of -17. This will stop months of slow improvement.  Nationwide HPI is an important housing sector figure. It’s predicted to rise by 0.4%, much less than the previous months.

The big release is the GDP: the initial release showed a fragile growth rate of 0.1%. Now we’re expecting an upwards revision of 0.2% in Q4. Only a small downwards revision is needed, and Britain will officially remain in recession. All eyes are on this event.

For the Pound’s technical levels, check out the GBP/USD forecast.

Australia’s last figure for the week is Private Sector Credit, which is predicted to rise by 0.2%, after a 0.3% rise last time.

For the Aussie’s important levels, check out the AUD/USD forecast.

German Prelim CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% after a drop of 0.6% last month. While the changes in German prices are stronger, the overall picture remains very stable, even too stable.

The all-European CPI reflects this quite well. CPI is expected to rise by an annual rate of 1%, confirming the initial release, and Core CPI is predicted to be revised upwards – from 1.1% to 1.2%. No rate hike in the horizon.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest technical analysis.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is an important gauge of the economy and will supply action for the Swissy, which already “enjoys” frequent SNB interventions.

In Canada, Current Account is expected to show a smaller deficit than last month – 8.9 billion. Note that the Canada’s trade balance is almost fully balanced, around 0. For USD/CAD levels, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

The main event is the revised American GDP release. The markets were positively shocked by the initial release of Q4 GDP – an annual growth rate of 5.7%, far better than expected. The initial market reaction was mixed, and the dollar gained only later. This number is predicted to be revised to 5.6%, still high, but lacking the essential rise in jobs.

More American numbers are expected – Chicago PMI is expected to dip from 61.5 to 59.3 points. The revised version of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to be better – 74 points instead of 73.7.

Existing Home Sales usually have a strong impact on the markets, but the GDP release casts a shadow upon them. Expectations are for a small rise from 5.45 to 5.51 million sales.

That’s it for this week. Happy forex trading!

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