EUR/USD Outlook – August 9-13
After riding the Non-Farm Payrolls, a busy week expects Euro traders, with the best kept for last – GDP figures on Friday. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The Euro enjoyed the reports that the US central bank will take new steps to boost the economy, by printing dollars. Now, the focus returns to the European core figures. Let’s start:
- Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. This official European survey of 2,800 analysts and investors has significantly improved in recent months, but the output was still negative – minus 1.3 last month, meaning that the overall mood is still pessimistic. A rise to 2.4 points, a positive number will boost the Euro.
- German Final CPI: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. After a few volatile months, Germany’s consumer prices stabilized at small changes. The initial figure of a small 0.2% rise will probably be confirmed now.
- French Industrial Production: Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy rebounded nicely last month, with a 1.7% growth rate. This time, a drop will probably be seen.
- ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT. Following the rate decision with its optimistic sentiment, we’ll get to see what the data was based on. This release shows what data the members of the ECB saw when making their decision. This could boost the Euro.
- Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. This publication for the whole continent comes after Germany and France already released their own numbers. Nevertheless, the overall picture is very important. After a surprising 1% rise last month, a rise in a scale of 0.7% will probably be seen now.
- German Prelim GDP: Published on Friday at 6:00 GMT. Germany has been the locomotive of the whole Euro zone, showing impressive industrial output and dropping unemployment. So, the positive growth rate of 0.2% seen in Q1 will probably be followed with a strong 1.3% in Q2, and might be even stronger, boosting the Euro.
- French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 6:45 GMT. This quarterly release showed a small growth in French employment – 0.2% in Q1. Q2′s figure will probably be similar – 0.3%.
- French GDP: Published on Friday at 6:45 GMT. Published 45 minutes after the German figure, this number can stabilize the Euro before the release of the figure for the whole continent. The weak growth rate of 0.1% in Q1 is likely to be followed by a slightly stronger growth rate – 0.4%, or an unchanged figure. Contraction will hurt the Euro.
- Flash GDP: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. There’s a big difference between the different members of the Euro-zone. While Germany, France and Holland march forward, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece suffer. After three quarters of growth, there’s a big danger of seeing new contraction – a double dip recession. But, expectations are very high – a growth rate of 0.7%. This figure will rock the Euro and other currencies as well.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
At the beginning of the week, EUR/USD made an initial breakout above 1.3114. It then traded between this line, that turned into a strong support line, to the next barrier, 1.3267. On Friday, it leaned on the channel support line, which stood on 1.3160 at that time, before jumping higher. From the peak of 1.3333 it managed to settle at 1.3280, a weekly gain of 220 pips – a sixth consecutive week of gains.
Some lines were added on last week’s outlook. The pair currently ranges between 1.3267, the line it broke on the Non-Farm Payrolls, and 1.3435, the next barrier, which was a strong support line in February.
Higher, 1.3545 serves as the next line of resistance after providing support for the pair in March. 1.37 is the next line of resistance, working as in April, and it’s followed by 1.3850 which is a strong and clear line of both support and resistance.
Looking down, 1.3114 which was the place where the pair collapsed from in May, is now a strong support line. Also in the past week, it turned from a clear resistance line to a clear line of support.
Lower, 1.3028 had a minor role in the recent Euro rally. It’s followed by 1.2880, which was a support line in 2009 and then by 1.2722 which held the pair temporarily in July. There are many lines below, but they’re too far now.
It’s also important to notice the steep uptrend channel, also marked on the graph. EUR/USD is currently in the middle of this uptrend channel, far enough from falling.
I am neutral on EUR/USD.
US weakness, as seen in the Non-Farm Payrolls, continues to fuel EUR/USD. It might get a fresh boost from the new dollar printing schemes by the Federal Reserve, but could suffer a disappointment from the European GDP, as expectations are high.
This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:
- Andrei marks technical levels and sees a sell trend.
- James Chen focuses on the uptrend channel and marks the next targets.
- Mohammed Isah’s technical analysis sees hesitation but a continued uptrend.
- Tim Black, on Casey’s site, sees a swing trade opportunity on EUR/CAD.
- Piphut sees mixed signals.
- TheGeekKnows provides a review of the past week and a look forward.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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