In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke; delivers a speech titled “Restoring the Flow of Credit to Small Business” at the Financing Needs of Small Business Forum, in Washington DC, and have an influence on the nation’s currency value.

Later in the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Governor Elizabeth Duke delivers a speech titled “Small Business Credit: Next Steps” at the Financing Needs of Small Business Forum, in Washington DC; and affect the nation’s key interest rates and future monetary policy.

Moving on to Canada, Bank of Canada (BOC) Business Outlook Survey of about 100 businesses examining the relative level of general business conditions, such as sales growth, investment in machinery, employment, inflation expectations, and credit conditions; a highly respected Survey related to the nation’s GDP. It’s a leading signal of future economic activity.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stabilize on 0.3%, it’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health, that is released quarterly and measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

More in Great Britain, Current Account shows a decrease of 2.6 Billion It’s directly linked to currency demand and to execute transactions in the country.

Later in Great Britain, British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor leads the government-released retail data and has a narrower focus that includes retailers who belong to the BRC, shows a rise from -2.3% to 0.8% and measures change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level.

Finally in Britain, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance droops down by 2%, It’s a leading indicator that measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed property surveyors.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Home Loans rise up by 2.8%, it’s a leading indicator of demand in the housing market that measures the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes;

 For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Food Price Index (FPI) shows a decrease of 0.2%, Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand’s major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis.

In Japan, the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rises up by 0.2% it’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation that Measures the Change in the price of goods sold by corporations;

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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A busy week expects cable traders: inflation, employment and Final GDP are part of the events that will shake the Pound this week. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines. Click to enlarge:

In the past week, the Pound traded in a tight range, and didn’t fall during most of the week, despite many bad economic indicators that were released in the UK. The fall began only on Friday. Will it continue? Let’s start:

1. Final GDP: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT, delayed from two weeks ago. The initial release of GDP for Q1 was very disappointing – a growth rate of only 0.1% caused fears of a new recession. But the revision already showed a 0.3% rise, and this will probably be confirmed now. Britain’s economy is still very vulnerable, with the European debt issues still having an impact on the UK. This release will rock the Pound.
2. Current Account: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT and slightly overshadowed by the GDP release. Britain’s deficit is expected to grow from 1.7 to 3.9 billion pounds. A rise in the deficit was also seen in the related figure – trade balance, and already took its toll on the pair.
3. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT (midnight UK). This release gives a good idea about retail sales, as it’s a subset of the total figure. After a drop of 2.3% two months ago, sales rose by 0.8% last month. Another small rise is expected now.
4. RICS House Price Balance: Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT. This indicator shows the balance between areas that see a rise in house prices and the areas that see drops. This indicator recovered and reached a positive balance of 22% last month, but similar housing indices show a probable drop this time.
5. CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Inflation passed the government’s 1-3% target in the past 5 months, reaching an annual rate of 3.7% at the peak. It then eased to 3.4% and it’s now expected to drop to 3.2%. One MPC member, Andrew Sentance, already wants a rate hike, but this didn’t happen yet. A drop under 3% will reduce the chances of a hike and will hurt the Pound. Core CPI is also expected to ease from an annual rate of 2.9% to 2.7%. RPI (Retail Price Index), which often reflects better what customers feel, will probably drop from 5.1% to 4.9%.
6. Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 23:00 GMT, delayed from last week. The Nationwide Building Society usually releases this report before the rate decision, but the delay gives it a different perspective. After hitting a peak at 81 points, it fell down to 65 points, and is expected to tick down to 64 points this time.
7. Employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Claimant Count Change, is the earliest report on employment in the UK, and shows the changed in the number of unemployed people. In the past 4 months, it has dropped significantly, surprising economists. After the 30.9K drop seen last month, a more modest drop of 20.3K is predicted this time. The unemployment rate, which relates to the month of May,  is expected to remain unchanged at 7.9%. Also note the Average Earnings Index, which is likely to rise at an annual rate of 3.1%, less than last month’s 4.2%.
8. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. In this quarterly report, the Bank of England shows the change in the value of mortgages that aren’t used for housing. A squeeze of 3.1 billion is expected to follow last month’s 4 billion drop.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD extended its gains in the past week, edging up to new levels. But is this sustainable? The pair cannot rally solely on weak US data. We have a major German survey this week. Let’s start:

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

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In Canada, Ivey PMI: Survey of about 175 purchasing managers, selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the economy as a whole rose to 62.7 points in May expected to continue its growth to 64.2 points.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Final GDP the first quarter showed a small increase of 0.2% the same rise is likely to appear in the second quarter as well.

More in Europe, German Factory Orders Europe’s largest economy had an excellent performance according to this indicator – growth rates of 5% and 2.8% in the past two months. A small rise of 0.5% is anticipated now.

Finally in Europe, France is expected to continue decreasing its balance of trade deficit by 300 million Euros following a deficit of 4.2B in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax HPI: Following the 0.4% dip in May and 0.1% dip in April, house prices increase of 0.6% is expected now.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Japan, core machinery orders as a leading indicator of capital spending are also set to pull back over the month of May after April’s solid 4% gain. A drop of 2.9% is expected now.

More in Japan, Bank Lending experienced a 2.9% dip in May and is now expecting another drop following  Japan’s banking minister rapped a local prefecture’s plan to ease tough new consumer lending regulations, saying that the rules should be enforced across the country and that no one area should be exempt.

Finally in Japan, money stock, measured by the key M2 aggregate, rose 3.1% from a year earlier in May, accelerating from +2.9%
in April. The same figure is expected for June as well.

According to the forecast Japan’s trade surplus is narrowing to 1.12T trade surplus following 1.38T in May.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The rate decision towards the end of the week is the main European event in the upcoming week, after the common currency settled on higher ground. Here’s an outlook for the European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

It will be interesting to hear Trichet’s comments in the ECB Press Conference after the rate announcement. Will he express fear of a double dip recession? His words usually move the markets. Let’s start:

1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. This survey of 2800 analysts and investors turned positive 3 months ago, but this proved to be a temporary jump – it returned to negative, meaning pessimism. The score is expected to remain at around last month’s score: -4.1 points. Actual: -1.3.
2. Retail Sales: Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT. The volume of sales was very disappointing last month, as it dropped by 1.2% instead of rising. It’s important to note that in the last 8 months, this figure was always revised later to the upside. A small rise is expected this time. Actual: 0.2%
3. Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. After Europe officially emerged out of recession in Q3, its economy stalled in the Q4 of 2009. The initial and second releases for Q1 of 2010 showed a small growth rate of 0.2%. This will probably be confirmed this time. There are usually no surprises here. The next quarters are expected to be worse.
4. German Factory Orders:  Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy had an excellent performance according to this indicator – growth rates of 5% and 2.8% in the past two months. Will the German factories continue carrying the whole Euro-zone?
5. German Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. Also this figure, similar to the previous one, is great. Growth rates exceeded expectations in the past two months, and this trend is expected to continue, although a rise of 4.3% that occurred two months ago, isn’t expected now.
6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged for another month. The European issues prevent a rate hike, and while inflation is picking up, it still isn’t a threat – there are deeper issues.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the US, American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: The report for the private sector is sometimes called the “mini Non-Farm Payrolls”. In many months, it didn’t predict the direction of the NFP, but this changed last month, as the weak growth in the private sector was reflected in the NFP 2 days later. Three months of job gains will probably be followed by a fourth one. Expectations stand on a gain of 58K jobs.

More in the US, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index is foreseen another small drop following the unexpected fall in May gaining 59.2 points.

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories expected to add to the surplus inventories following last week’s surge of 2.0 M.

In Canada, Canadian GDP for the month of March, that finished Q1, was excellent - 0.6%. This exceeded expectations and completed an annual growth rate of 6.1% in Q1. A modest rise of 0.2% is expected this time.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Unemployment in Europe’s largest economy is forecasted to contract another 23K in June following the 45K drop during the previous month An ongoing improvement in the German labor market is likely to stoke an enhanced outlook for future growth, and the data could spur a bullish reaction in the single-currency as European policy makers expect the recovery to gather pace in the second-quarter.

More in Europe, Following the market muted reaction to the Eurozone CPI flash estimate which came in at 1.6% a small dip to 1.5% is anticipated.

Finally in Europe, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference at the High-level Eurosystem Seminar with Central Banks and Monetary Agencies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in Rome this may affect interest rates.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Nationwide HPI is expected a small drop to 0.3% following April’s predicted rise. The BBC quoted Nationwide’s chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, as saying: “The current supply-demand balance on the market is still consistent with relatively stable to modestly upward trending prices.”

More in Great Britain, British Final GDP: The final version of Britain’s GDP is expected to confirm the improved second release and show a growth rate of 0.3% in the first quarter. Only an upwards revision of the weak growth rate will boost the Pound. The next quarters will probably be worse in Britain, with budget cuts expected to dampen the recovery.

Later in Great Britain, Current Account is expected to widen its deficit to GBP -3.7 billion following the improvement of -1.7B in the previous quarter.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, KOF Economic Barometer is highly regarded and moves the Swissy. Last month saw a significant rise from 2.05 to 2.16 – a score which was better than expected. The Swiss economy is doing well, and so is their currency, especially against the Euro. A small rise to 2.17 is expected now.

In Australia, Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.2% over April 2010, following an increase of 0.5% over March a further rise of 0.4% is expected. The Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows. It shows if the private sector can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. It is considered as an indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Australia. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Tankan Manufacturing Index: This fresh quarterly indicator always rocks the markets. 1,200 large manufacturers have shown less pessimism in Q1 as the core climbed from -24 to -14, as expected. The number for Q2 is expected to be slightly better, but still in the negative zone: -3 and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index is also expecting an improvement from -14 to -8.

More in Japan, In April the average monthly total cash earnings per regular employee in Japan rose higher than expected reaching 1.5% a more modest increase of 0.9% is expected now.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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The Chinese central bank lifted the peg on the yuan, in a move that was anticipated for a long time. Commodity currencies enjoyed it, while others currencies had only limited gains against the dollar. This gap will probably continue this week as well. Let’s start:

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for outlooks on specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Ready to connect with real Forex traders? Currensee is the first Forex trading social network.

Final GDP and purchasing managers’ indices lead the busy economic calendar in the UK. Here’s an outlook for the events in Britain and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

The headline from the British government’s emergency budget is a raise of sales tax. This didn’t impact forex trading. On the other hand, we saw that one member voted to raise the rates in the last MPC meeting. This sent the Pound way up. Let’s start:

1. Nationwide HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. The Nationwide Building Society has shown three consecutive months of rises in prices of homes. This came after a one time dip. After rising by 0.5% last months, prices are predicted to rise by a smaller scale this time.
2. Net Lending to Individuals: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The Brits are being more careful in lending – the past few months showed very low level of lending – 0.3 and 0.4 billion, significantly lower than expected. Less lending means less economic activity. This trend is expected to continue.
3. GfK Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 23:00 GMT. This survey of 2,000 consumers showed that consumers’ pessimism is growing. After the score already reached -13, it fell back to -18 last month. The negative numbers mean pessimism, and this will probably grow once again.
4. Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The final version of Britain’s first quarter GDP is expected to confirm the improved second release and show a growth rate of 0.3% in the first quarter. Only an upwards revision of this weak growth rate will boost the Pound, but this isn’t likely. The next quarters will probably be worse in Britain, with budget cuts expected to take their toll on the economy.
5. Current Account: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT, and overshadowed by the GDP. This quarterly release lags behind the related figure – trade balance. Nevertheless, it always shakes the Pound. Britain’s deficit significantly squeezed in Q4 to 1.7 billion pounds, much less than expected. A similar deficit is expected this time.
6. Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. This purchasing managers’ index has been positive in the past 8 months, reaching a peak of 58 points in the past two months. This survey of 600 purchasing managers, which is expected to slide this time, always rocks the Pound
7. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT, and somewhat overshadowed by the PMI release. This is a good indicator of economic activity. The quarterly release make it an important release for the Pound. Worsening credit conditions will hurt the currency.
8. Construction PMI: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. The construction sector was slower to recover, with the PMI rising above 50 only three months ago. Since then, this indicators rose nicely. From 58.5 last month, its expected to drop this time.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the US, Final GDP expected to maintain 3.0% from the previous quarter reflecting a deceleration in the market. The Final GDP Price Index also rebounds at 1.0% as in the previous quarter.

More in the US, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is likely to remain 75.5% following the rise in May and the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations is about to maintain the reduction in May reaching 2.7%.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

Canada will chair the G-8 Summit, which will be held in Ontario’s Muskoka region. Immediately afterward, Canada will host the G-20 Summit, which will take place in Toronto. The leaders of the world’s most industrialized countries gather annually at the G-8 summits to discuss a broad range of issues, such as fiscal and monetary policy coordination and international development. Industrialized and leading emerging countries also meet regularly at G-20 meetings, which have become an important international forum to advance economic cooperation. The honorable Peter Van Loan, Minister of International Trade, calls for increased focus on free and open trade, pointing to the Canada-United States relationship as an example of a free trade success story.

In Europe, German Import Prices expected to drop 1.0% from the unexpected rise of 2.0% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Switzerland, Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin Monetary policy report’ and ‘The economic situation from the vantage point of the delegates for regional economic relations’, and is used by the Governing Board for the quarterly assessment. It has a mild affect on the market since much of the information is released 2 weeks earlier in the Monetary Policy Assessment.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The market disregards the European troubles. In the past week, the focus was on the Spanish credit crunch. Nevertheless, the Euro continued recovering, and so did other currencies, that truly enjoy good economies, such the loonie, which is ready for parity. American figures will dominate the scene this week. Let’s start:

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 8:00 GMT. This important indicator has been more optimistic than other German surveys in the past months, but it also stopped rising last month. It’s now expected to edge down from 101.5 to 101.2 points, as uncertainty grows in Europe.
2. British Emergency Budget: Published on Tuesday at 11:30 GMT. Squeezing the budget deficit is a top priority for the new government. George Osborne, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, will go to parliament and present the cuts. The budget release includes updated economic forecasts, which will rock the Pound.
3. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Small surprises have been seen in this important housing sector indicator. This time, a big leap is expected – from 5.77 to 6.23 million, the highest in 6 months. High volatility is expected around the release.
4. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing Tuesday’s release, this indicator is expected to be different this time, and drop from 504K to 435K. Note that the impact will be rather muted due to the upcoming to rate decision. Nervous trading is predicted.
5. American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve isn’t expected to move. Not so soon. Employment is still problematic in the US, and inflation doesn’t pose a threat. Yet again, the focus won’t be on the Federal Funds Rate, but on the accompanying FOMC Statement. The wording about leaving the interest rate low for an “extended period of time”, will probably remain despite some members’ will to drop it. Watch out for a few hours of action.
6. New Zealand GDP: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand is rather late with its GDP release for Q1. After a rise of 0.8% in Q4 of 2010, the growth rate is expected to be weaker – 0.5%. This goes hand in hand with Australia’s weaker growth rate. The Aussie will also move after this release.
7. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As in every week, this release is closely watched. Another disappointment was seen in the past week, with jobless claims rising to 472K. A small drop to 461K will probably be seen now. Only a drop under 430K will convince everybody that a real recovery arrived.
8. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This release will probably be very confusing. Durable Goods Orders jumped by 2.8% last time, and are expected to correct with a drop of 1% this time. Core Durable Goods Orders fell by 1.1% last time and are expected to rise in the same scale this time. Only a move of both figures in the same direction will move the markets.
9. Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The Japanese government’s efforts to tackle the deflation will probably be partially fruitful. The annualized level of prices is expected to show a drop of 1.5%, better than last month’s 1.6% number. This is the earliest inflation figure in Japan, and tends to have a strong impact.
10. American GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the third and final release of American GDP for the third quarter. The second release was worse than the first one, and showed an annual growth rate of only 3% in Q1, much weaker than the previous quarter’s leap. This growth rate will probably be confirmed now.

That’s it for the major events for this week. Stay tuned for specific currency updates.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Ready to connect with real Forex traders? Currensee is the first Forex trading social network.