EUR/USD Outlook – April 19-23

Greek hopes and worries dominated the Euro’s trading in the past week. The upcoming week will be dominated by economic indicators, with two major surveys to rock the currency. Here’s an outlook for the 12 events that await the Euro this week, and an updated analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

eur usd forecast

After starting the week with an impressing weekend gap on Greek hopes – the Euro returned closed almost at the same spot. The Greek story won’t let go, but there are so many events this week. So, let’s start:

  1. German PPI: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. After a leap two months ago, German producer prices took a break and remained unchanged last month. Given the rise in commodity prices, this inflation indicator is expected to rise by 0.5% this time.
  2. Current Account: Published on Tuesday at 8:00 GMT. After two months of surplus, Europe’s current account, consisting of good (trade balance), services and money, fell into a deficit of 8.1 billion last month. This deficit is predicted to narrow down to 5.3 billion this time.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and institutional investors always rocks the Euro. In the past 6 months, the ZEW economic sentiment has been on the fall, hurting the Euro almost each time. This time, it’s predicted to edge up from last month’s score of 44.5 to 45.2 points. Also the all-European figure is expected to rise from 37.9 to 38.9 points, but it has a smaller impact.
  4. Axel Weber talks: Starts speaking on Tuesday at 16:00 GMT at a conference in Mannheim.  The president of the Bundesbank is not only an influential member of the ECB, but the leading candidate to replace Jean-Claude at the top position. His words about the debt crises and monetary policy in the continent are always monitored carefully.
  5. French Flash PMI: Published on Thursday at 7:00 GMT. France begins a busy morning of purchasing managers’ indices, that will keep EUR/USD busy. Flash Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise from 56.5 to 56.8 points. The services sector is somewhat lagging behind, in Europe’s second-largest economy, and it’s predicted to tick up from 52.8 to 54.4 points.
  6. German Flash PMI: Published on Thursday at 7:30 GMT. Europe’s largest economy enjoys a super strong manufacturing sector, according to the PMI – the high score of 60.2 will probably be repeated. The services sector is expected to advance from 54.9 to 55.2 points.
  7. All-European Flash PMI: Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT. The last figure is for all the continent – the manufacturing sector is expected to see a small rise from 56.6 to 56.8 points, while the services sector will probably rise from 54.1 to 54.5. Note that all the numbers are above the critical line of 50 – marking economic expansion.
  8. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Starts speaking on Thursday at 11:00 GMT in a conference in Frankfurt. The president of the ECB might comment about the situation of debt-struck countries and might also say something about the stagnant economy.
  9. French Consumer Spending: Published on Friday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy saw two months of disappointing dips in consumer spending – 2.7% and 1.2%. A halt in this quick deterioration is expected now with a rise of 0.3% in spending. This can help the Euro.
  10. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. The second major survey from Germany is very wide: 7,000 businesses are polled about their expectations for the next months. Contrary to the ZEW survey, this has been on the rise almost each month, reaching 98.1 points, the highest in almost two years. This positive trend will likely continue with a score of 98.9 points.
  11. Industrial New Orders: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. After two positive months, the value of new orders that manufacturers received took a 1.6%. A correction is expected this time, with a rise of 0.9%.
  12. NBB Business Climate: Published on Friday at 13:00 GMT. This survey, coming from the small nation of Belgium, reflects the situation of the Euro-zone’s economies quite well – negative but improving. After edging up to -3.6 points last month, a score of -2.5 will probably be seen this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro had the best weekend gaps, starting above 1.36 and almost reaching 1.37. It later dropped and closed the gap on Friday. The close at 1.3504 is a full round trip.

Some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The current range of this pair is between 1.3380 and 1.36. Note that 1.3380 is a strong support line while 1.36 is a minor one.

Looking up, the next line after 1.36 is 1.37, which was the peak last week and also a resistance line in the past. Higher, 1.3850 is a very strong resistance line – after the Euro failed breaking this line, it collapsed.

Looking down, the next support line under 1.3380 is found at 1.3267, the year to date low for EUR/USD. Even lower, strong support is found at 1.3080 – the line where the Euro began a long term run last year.

I am bearish on EUR/USD.

The Greek troubles aren’t over yet. Together with a new dollar storm on the Goldman Sachs scandal, and a lame economy, I EUR/USD renewing its falls.

This pair receives many good reviews on the web. Here are some of my favorites:

  • James Chen watches how the gap is filled and sees this as a bearish sign.
  • Mohammed Isah discusses how the pair is struggling ahead of 1.3537/1.3498 Levels.
  • TheLFB analyzes the impact of Goldman Sachs on the oversold dollar.
  • Andrei sees further weakness in EUR/USD.
  • TheGeekKnows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

USD/CAD Outlook – April 19-23

A busy week awaits the Canadian dollar with the rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the 7 Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. USD/CAD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: The Canadian dollar continued to struggle with parity, and seemed to improve its positions [...]

NZD/USD Outlook – April 19-23

The kiwi was hurt by the drop in retail sales that was reported in the past week. Here’s an outlook for this week’s major events, and a technical analysis for NZD/USD. NZD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Note: I haven’t made a weekly outlook for the kiwi in a [...]

GBP/USD Outlook – April 19-23

After a mostly- positive week, Goldman Sachs sent the Pound back to the critical technical line. The upcoming week is very busy – inflation, employment and GDP figures are all released this week, among other indicators. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. GBP/USD graph with support and [...]

AUD/USD Outlook – April 19-23

After a strong start, the Aussie surrendered to the Goldman Sachs news and closed the week lower. The upcoming will consist of the RBA’s meeting minutes among other events. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: [...]

Forex Weekly Outlook – March 15-19

The dollar retreated in the past week on most fronts. Was it a temporary move? The upcoming week provides lots of American events, with Ben Bernanke’s rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for this week’s market-moving events. In the forex industry, the proposed regulations by the CFTC are again in the news, as [...]

EUR/USD Outlook – March 15-19

EUR/USD made some gains, enjoying greenback weakness. The upcoming week contains 7 events that will move the Euro. Here’s an outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: In the middle of the week, I wrote about bullish signs for the [...]

USD/CAD Outlook – March 15-19

The Canadian dollar made a significant move at the end of the week, and approaches parity with the US dollar. 6 events will shape the direction of the loonie, with the most important ones kept for Friday. Here’s an outlook and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, now on lower ground. USD/CAD chart with support [...]

AUD/USD Outlook – March 15-19

The Aussie reached higher ground this week. The upcoming week consists of the meeting minutes of the last rate decision and a few more events. Here’s an outlook for Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: This time, employment figures weren’t outstanding, [...]

GBP/USD Outlook – March 15-19

The Pound enjoyed the dollar’s weakness to rise this week, but still under important resistance levels. The upcoming week consists of important employment figures among other events. Here’s an outlook for British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: Mervyn King didn’t make [...]

keep looking »

  • Forex Crunch

    Forex Crunch is a blog all about the foreign exchange market. It includes and will include: tutorials, basics of the forex market, daily and weekly forex analysis, technical analysis, forex software posts, and whatever is related to Forex. Forex Crunch aims to deal with forex trading, but with a more personal touch. More...

  • Stay up to date!

    Subscribe By Email

    Enter your email address:


    Trade together with Currensee

    Search

  • Forex Crunch Pages

  • Forex Categories

Bad Behavior has blocked 2143 access attempts in the last 7 days.