Forex Weekly Outlook – November 9-13 2009

After a very busy week, that finished with painful employment figures in the US, the markets will have more time to digest the news this week. European GDP figures, British and Australian employment figures and US Trade Balance will stand out this week. Let’s see the main events awaiting us this week.

During the weekend, the finance ministers of the G20 countries are meeting in St. Andrews, Scotland. The headlines that will come out from there will impact the markets, and especially EUR/USD, which is sensitive to global events like these.  EUR/USD, the world’s favorite currency pair, partially recovered from the panic that struck the markets two week’s ago.

Monday, November 9th: Australia provides a strong start to the week, with the Home Loans figure which is expected to turn positive this month. Also ANZ Job Advertisements are notable.

In Europe, German Industrial Production is predicted to continue rising. Canadian Housing Starts are expected to advance cautiously.

Tuesday, November 10th: British BRC Retail Sales Monitor serves as an unofficial retail sales release which should draw interest. Later in Britain, Trade Balance is expected to show a stable deficit. Also note the CB Leading Index. The British Pound enjoyed a favorable rate decision last week.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment is an important indicator for the Euro. It’s expected to edge down this month, showing a slow, step by step recovery.

In the US, there are speeches by various FOMC members, who might shed some light on the confusing FOMC statement from last week. The scenario of copy-pasting worked for Ben Bernanke, but wasn’t understood by the public…

New Zealand’s RBNZ Financial Stability Report is predicted to shake the kiwi and might indicate future policy by the RBNZ.

Japan will close the day with Core Machinery Orders which are predicted to jump.

Wednesday, November 11th: On remembrance day, the markets will haver lower trade volume, but there are more than a few important releases.

China is expected to publish many indicators, with Industrial Production and Trade Balance standing out. Strong figures will help the Aussie and on a lesser extent, weaken the dollar.

British Claimant Count Change is very important for the Pound. This figure surprised last time. Will it continue? British Unemployment Rate related to the previous month, but is still very important. It’s predicted to rise to 8%.

British events continue with the BOE Inflation Report accompanied by a speech from Mervyn King, the governor of the BoE.

In New Zealand, Retail Sales are expected to continue rising, this time by 0.5%. New Zealand needs a strong rise to compensate for the rate hike that didn’t happen.

Thursday, November 12th: Australian employment figures are expected to be negative, with a loss of 10K jobs and a rise of the unemployment rate to 5.8%.

After the uninteresting rate decision last week, the Jean-Claude Trichet will release the ECB Monthly Bulletin. He’ll make a public appearance later in the day. Also European Industrial Production will move the Euro.

Weekly Unemployment Claims are predicted to remain sable after edging down last week. With an unemployment rate above 10%, this figure will receive more focus now. The Federal Budget Balance is expected to show a higher deficit once again.

Friday, November 13th: Friday the 13th features all-important GDP releases in Europe: German Prelim GDP is expected to rise by 0.8% in the third quarter after ending recession in Q2. Flash GDP for the whole continent is expected to show that the whole continent is out of recession, rising by 0.6% after a 0.2% drop in Q2.

Moving to North America, both Canada and the US will release their Trade Balance figures at the same time. While the Canadian deficit is predicted to squeeze, the American one is predicted to grow. Volatile times are expected for USD/CAD. Will the loonie rise from the disappointing employment figures in Canada?

Near the end of the day, the University of Michigan releases its highly regarded Consumer Confidence, which is expected to rise.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll publish specific currency coverage later on. In the meantime, here’s the forex overview of the week that just ended.

Further reading:

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