Forex Weekly Wrap Up – January 19-23 2009
This was a wild week in forex trading: A strong dollar with Obama’s inauguration, the huge fall of the British pound, rumors of BOJ intervention to weken the Yen and lots of data from Canada. Here’s a wrap up of the major events in the forex market this week.
Forex trading began this week with the end of the Gaza war. The ceasefire declared by Israel was followed by Hamas. This shifted focus from oil prices during most of the week. A renewed surge in oil prices began on Friday, lifting the Canadian dollar.
The main event of this week was the inauguration of Barack Obama as the President of the USA. His optimism affected the US dollar, that made gains almost everywhere. It strengthened despite bad economic data. The high hopes that Obama’s stimulus plan will revive the American economy gave the dollar back wind.
The dollar weakened only against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY is now at 88.70, after hitting a 13 year low at around 87. The strong Yen is alarming for the BOJ, that might intervene to weaken the Yen, or at least hint it. Also GBP/JPY made a sharp move, falling as low as 118.84. Currently it’s above 122.
The British pound was heavily beaten during the week. It began with fears about the banking system being nationalized, continued with talks about a British bailout plan for the banks, and ended with the official statement that Britain is in recession, and even deeper than expected.
GBP/USD fell to 23 year lows, at 1.3505, before closing the week at 1.3790. GBP/USD parity cannot be dismissed. The pound also lost ground to the Euro. EUR/GBP at 0.9388. EUR/GBP parity isn’t near, due to Euro weakness, but it’s getting closer.
The Eurozone saw some good economic data this week, but bowed before the US dollar. EUR/USD fell under 1.30, as low as 1.2768, before getting back to 1.2980.
The ZEW Economic Sentiment, especially in Germany was better than expected. Also the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI figures were better than expected. Europe shows some stability.
Another notable currency this week is the Canadian dollar. As aforementioned, oil prices took it back up at the end of the week. But during the week, USD/CAD went against the Canadian dollar: the rate was cut by 0.5% to 1%.
In addition, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Core CPI and CPI were all below expectations in Canada. USD/CAD finished the week at 1.23, despite all this data. The power of oil prices is strong…
Unfortunately, forex trading news and moves consumed most of my week, and I didn’t have enough time to research Forex Autopilot Systems. At least I found an open source forex autopilot system, which is quite interesting. Hopefully I’ll write more on forex software issues next week.
Have a great weekend!
Forex Daily Analysis – January 22nd 2009
After a few days of dollar and Yen rallying, this morning began in a calm way in the forex market. Lots of data due today, that might signal new directions for forex trading. In Japan, the Overnight Call Rate stayed at 0.1% according to expectations. In the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ stated that it still [...]
Forex Weekly Outlook – January 19-23 2009
Before the new week begins, there were major events during the weekend. The Gaza war is nearing its end, with a unilateral cease fire declaration by Israel. If it holds, the ending of this conflict in Gaza will impact oil prices, stock prices, and forex trading, especially USD/CAD and AUD/USD. More about the Gaza cease [...]
Gaza Ceasefire Declared by Israel
The Israeli cabinet just approved a unilateral ceasefire in the Gaza war. This truce will begin on Sunday, January 18th, at 00:00 GMT, or 02:00 in the middle east. After 3 weeks of intense fighting in Gaza, the conflict might reach it’s end, as this ceasefire is backed by the Palestinian authority, Egypt and major [...]
Obama Inauguration and Forex Trading
In three days from now, Barack Obama will be inaugurated as the 44th president of the USA. The new American administration will definitely make a big change in economic policy and will also affect Forex Trading. Obama’s election, after almost two years of campaigning, was a historic one: he’s the first black president. Obama’s victory [...]
Forex Daily Analysis – January 15th 2009
Today’s major event is the rate decision in Europe: The ECB will announce the Minimum Bid Rate at 12:34 GMT. It’s expected to cut rates by 0.5%. More about the ECB’s rate decision. After yesterday’s fall, EUR/USD is now trading rather stable, at 1.32. Japan’s monthly Core Machinery Orders fell by a whopping 16.2%, but the [...]
Oil Prices Fall on Gaza Truce Rumors
Today in the Middle East, there are reports that Hammas has agreed to a cease fire with Israel. This news, although not fully verified and far from final, is breaking news. The Gaza war is raging for almost 3 weeks, and has raised oil prices. Hammas will hold a press conference later in a few [...]
Forex Daily Analysis – January 14th 2009
Yesterday, the dollar made gains against all the currencies, except the Yen. Today, this trend is reversed: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF went against the dollar, while USD/JPY went in favor of the Japanese Yen. In Australia, the monthly Home Loans were surprisingly good – they showed a rise of 1.3%, more than 1.0% that was expected. [...]
Forex Daily Analysis – January 13th 2009
The second day of this week sees the dollar strengthening on almost all fronts: only the Japanese Yen makes gains against the dollar. USD/JPY is now at 89.13. The big event today is Bernanke’s speech. Oil prices have fallen significantly, now under $37 a barrel. The Gaza war currently isn’t flaring the whole middle east, [...]
Forex Daily Analysis – January 7th 2009
The peak of the day is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the USA, building up expectations for the Non Farm PAyrolls on Friday. Important economic data begins early on Wednesday: In Austtralia, the monthly Retail Sales Trend is expected to show stability, at 0.1%. Also the HIA New Home Sales is a good indicator of the [...]
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