Forex Crunch » Glenn Stevens

RBA stays its hand

Yohay — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:42:15 +0000

Australia’s central bank sprang a big surprise when it decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 4.25% overnight. The statement accompanying the announcement suggested that growth remained close to trend and that underlying inflation was currently around 2.5%, in the middle of the 2-3% target band.

That said, a closer examination of the statement reveals that the RBA is still disposed towards further easing. Global growth expectations for this year have been revised lower, labour market conditions down under are soft, and inflation is expected to decline further over coming months. As the statement confirms:”Should demand conditions weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy”. Video:

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Forex Daily Outlook December 8 2011

anat — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 21:30:52 +0000

Rate decisions in the UK and in the euro-zone are the major market-movers as tension mounts towards the EU Summit. Let see what awaits us today.

In the US, Unemployment Claims, value the number the unemployed that asked for insurance on the past month, about to reduce down to 397K from 402K in November.

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Australian Dollar Recovers From Rate Cut

Yohay — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 11:28:30 +0000

The RBA cut the interest rate in Australia by 0.25% to 4.25%, in a move that was widely expected. This is the second cut in a row. Glenn Stevens and his colleagues cut the rates from 4.75% to 4.50% on November 1st.

The Aussie took a dive following this move, but it found support and bounced back up. Update.

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Forex Daily Outlook November 24 2011

anat — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 22:14:47 +0000

Revised GDP in the UK and Ifo Business Climate in Europe are the major market-movers. Let see what awaits us today.

In Canada, Corporate Profits is due to stay -4.9% similar to the last quarter.

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Forex Daily Outlook November 16 2011

anat — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 22:00:24 +0000

BOE Inflation Report in the US and Claimant Count Change in the UK are the main events today. Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Consumer Price Index (CPI), value the consumer’s price change of goods and services, due to reduce by 0.3% this month, while the Core CPI (apart from food and energy) is expected to remain 0.1% similar to the last report.

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AUD/USD Outlook November 14-18

Yohay — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 23:00:36 +0000

The Aussie suffered from another week of losses, gradually erasing previous gains. Meeting minutes from the recent decision to cut the rates is the main event of the week. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Employment figures came out within expectations, with a gain of 10K jobs and a small drop in the unemployment rate. Other indicators were also OK, but not good enough to boost the Aussie.

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Australian Rate Cut Chances Increase

Yohay — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 17:44:12 +0000

The chances of rate cut in Australia increased significantly following the weak CPI. AUD/USD already got a blow from the release of the CPI, but a rate cut isn’t fully priced in. More significant falls depend on the actual cut and its size.

Australia publishes official house price figures only once per quarter. During each quarter, there are unofficial releases such as the MI Inflation Gauge that provide some insight. The signs of weaker inflation were seen, but the official release was important, given the surprise.

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The day of reckoning

Yohay — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 07:58:04 +0000

There’s a frustration on the part of some market participants that there is always such a strong focus on the US employment report, given that the labour market is a lagging indicator of economic fortunes. Nevertheless, the fact that the labour market has been lagging the recovery of the past two years has been the primary issue, with total employment still way below the pre-recession peak of 2008 and the participation rate (those in work or looking) still on a declining trend.

For an economy that desperately needs tax revenues and consumers to spend (out of income, rather than borrowing), this has been a thorn in the side of the recovery to date. Furthermore, today’s anticipated 68k gain on headline payrolls falls far short of that required to account for the growth in the labour force. A negative headline number will once again increase speculation that the US economy is headed for another recession.

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Forex Daily Outlook – August 25 2011

anat — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 20:30:15 +0000

Unemployment Claims in the US and Martin Weale speech in Doncaster are the major market-movers. Let see what awaits us today.

Jackson Hole Symposium (Day 1), Financial Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming for central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and worldwide economic market participants.

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Forex Daily Outlook – July 26 2011

anat — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 21:00:12 +0000

CB Consumer Confidence in the US and Prelim GDP in the UK are the main events lined up. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, New Home Sales, important and main indicator to value the number of new single-family households that over the last month were sold, rise is expected from 319K on June to 321K this time.

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