AUD/USD Outlook – March 15-19

The Aussie reached higher ground this week. The upcoming week consists of the meeting minutes of the last rate decision and a few more events. Here’s an outlook for Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

AUD USD forecast

This time, employment figures weren’t outstanding, only OK, generally within expectations, after four months of surprises. The Aussie dipped only temporarily, and didn’t lose the important levels it secured earlier in the week. OK, let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Malcolm Edey talks: Starts speaking on Sunday at 22:00 GMT, in a conference in Sydney. As RBA Assistant Governor, Dr. Malcolm Edey has a significant influence on the decisions that are made by Australia’s active central bank. It isn’t clear whether there will be a pause in rate hikes, and this is the first opportunity to get hints this week about where the wind is blowing.
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT. The last rate decision was expected - a rise of 0.25% in the interest rate. As aforementioned, the next moves aren’t clear. By seeing the different members’ opinions in the last decision, we might get more hints. This release will surely shake AUD/USD.
  3. Housing Starts: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. Although being a late release, coming after the Building Permits figure is released, this quarterly number still has an impact on the markets. Last quarter saw a leap of 9.4% in starts. This time, a more moderate rise of 6.7% is predicted.
  4. MI Leading Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute provides an “umbrella indicator” for the economy. Seven straight rises will probably be followed by an eighth one, as the Australian economy is doing well.
  5. Guy Debelle talks: Starts talking on Thursday at midnight GMT. The last hint about future policy and rate hikes comes from another RBA Assistant Governor – Dr. Guy Debelle. He’ll speak in a conference in Melbourne and might provide more action.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a break above 0.9090 and kept to its gains during the week, and was bound by 0.92. Range trading in a new range.

Note that some of the lines were modified since last week’s outlook. Above 0.92, the next line of resistance is 0.9327. This is a very strong line that sent the Aussie down many times. The only breach of this line was at the beginning of November, when AUD/USD reached 0.94 – this is the next resistance line.

Below 0.9090, 0.8980 is a minor support line, being followed by 0.8735, which was the Aussie’s low in December.

Even lower, 0.8567 was a support line before AUD/USD went to the current highs, and also February’s low.

I remain bullish on the AUD/USD.

The Australian economy continues to be strong, as seen in the employment figures. There’s room for more rises.

Further reading:

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AUD/USD  graph with resistance and support lines marked. Click to enlarge:

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