Forex Daily Outlook – September 1 2010

U.S. DAP Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing Index and Australian GDP are at the top of our market moving events for today. Here is an outlook on the economic activities awaiting us.

In the US, Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a preliminary estimate for the outcome of the monthly non-farm payrolls expecting a slower jobs creation of up to 20 K jobs in August from 42 K in July and Challenger Job cuts fell 57.2% in July totaled 41,676, a similar number is expected now, however the job-cut report must be analyzed with caution. It doesn’t distinguish between layoffs scheduled for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual layoffs.

More in the US, ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, expected to register another month of slower growth with the index pulling back to 53.2 from 55.5 in July and ISM Manufacturing Prices also predicted to drop to 55.5 from 57.5 in July.
Later in the US, The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending August 20th, 2010, U.S. crude oil increased by 4.1 million barrels, a smaller increase of 1.3M is expected now and Construction Spending expected to decrease by 0.4% following 0.1% increase in June.

Finally in the US, Total Vehicle Sales predicted to increase by 100K reaching 11.6M and Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks about Neighborhood Stabilization at the Federal Reserve REO and Vacant Properties Summit, in Washington may affect interest rates and provide info on future monetary policy.

In Europe, German Retail Sales the primary gauge of consumer spending, expected 0.6% rise following a worse than expected drop of 0.9% in the previous month.

More in Europe, Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index a leading indicator of economic health is foreseen to remain 55.0 indicating expansion.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, House prices a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health increased by 0.6% in July.  This modest rise offset the 0.6% fall in June and is likely to increase this time as well.

More in Great Britain, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index a leading indicator of economic health predicted 57.1 points, 0.2 less than in the previous month but overall an encouraging figure.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index expected to drop 1 point to 65.9 indicating stability and growth in the Swiss market.

In Australia, Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth should confirm the expectations for faster economic growth in Q2 2010 by up to 0.9% q/q from 0.5% in the first quarter.

More in Australia, Commodity Prices a leading indicator of the nation’s trade balance since commodities account for over half of Australia’s export earnings has climbed 7% to 51.0% in July and is expected a similar rise this time as well.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Prices dropped 0.8% in July a small rise is expected now.
In Japan, Monetary Base measuring change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ forecasted 6.3% rise 0.2% more than in July.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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