In the US, American Unemployment Claims: This weekly figure is still causing trouble for the dollar. Jobless claims refuse to drop below 430K, and even rise. A significant drop is necessary in order to see a big leap in the NFP. This is the last job-related figure before the NFP. A small drop from 457K to 456K is expected now. The Challenger Job Cuts report is commonly used by investors as an indicator to determine the strength of the labor market expecting -65.0% as in the previous month.

More in the US, American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector have been positive in the past 10 months, sending the score above 50 – meaning economic expansion. Last month saw a small, yet expected drop from 60.4 to 59.7 points. Another drop is to 58.9 is expected now. ISM Manufacturing Prices a component of PMI serves as an inflation gauge is expected to reach 72.2- 5.3 lower than in the previous month.

Later in the US, American Pending Home Sales: The number of closed contracts for homes leaped in the past three months at very strong rates – 8.2%, 5.3% and 6%. This time, a drop of -4.5% will probably be seen, cooling down the markets.

Finally in the US, Construction Spending predicted to drop -0.6% following 2.7% rise in May. Total Vehicle Sales expected to decrease by 200,000 reaching 11.4M and Natural Gas Storage is likely to remain around 81B.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, final manufacturing PMI was revised down by 0.1 pt from the advance estimate to 55.8 in May, remaining the lowest since February (54.2), as output and new orders growth “slowed sharply” on the month; activity growth slowed in May across Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Another drop to 55.6 is expected.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax HPI reached -0.4% in May, weaker than the 0.35 expected and -0.1% prior reading a similar figure is expected now.

More in Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI coming out it is expected to read 57.6. Last month it read 58.0.

The Manufacturing PMI – which is calculated from data on new orders, production, employment, supplier performance and stocks of purchases – has now remained above the no-change mark of 50.0 for eight consecutive months.

Later in Great Britain, BOE Credit Conditions Survey released quarterly includes detailed data on secured and unsecured lending to households, small businesses, non-financial corporations, and non-bank financial firms correlated with spending and confidence – rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers and businesses are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, In May Swiss SVME PMI came in at 66.4, stronger than the 64.3 expected. A slight drop to 65.9 is expected now.

In Australia, Building Approvals indicator is very volatile, and tends to have a strong impact on the Aussie. A drop of almost 15% was reported in approvals last month, but this was merely a correction for a 17% rise beforehand. 0.0% is expected now.

More in Australia, Retail Sales a major consumer-related indicator rose by 0.6% last month, showing confidence for a second month in a row, despite the rate hikes. A smaller rise of 0.3% is expected this time.

Finally in Australia, Commodity Prices: Australia’s commodity-oriented economy enjoyed a recovery in commodity prices in June. This will be reflected in this indicator that is expected to show a year-over-year growth rate of over 50%, boosting the Aussie.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, The ANZ Commodity Price index fell to 2.5 points in May from 4.9 points in April and is expected to remain 2.5%.
ANZ Commodity Price released by the ANZ National Bank is considered as an early indicator of export price changes. The price changes influence GDP and exchange rates. An increase in prices may indicate strength of the NZD, while a decrease in prices may indicate weakness of the NZD. A high reading is seen as bullish for the NZD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.

In Japan, Monetary Base measuring Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ expected a 3.8% rise continuing the 3.7% rise in May.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The Chinese central bank lifted the peg on the yuan, in a move that was anticipated for a long time. Commodity currencies enjoyed it, while others currencies had only limited gains against the dollar. This gap will probably continue this week as well. Let’s start:

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for outlooks on specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Ready to connect with real Forex traders? Currensee is the first Forex trading social network.

EUR/USD returned back to the range after making a dip earlier this week. Another move after today’s figures was also contained. The markets are anxious towards the NFP, which mostly affects the Euro. Expectations rose from 500K to 524K. Let’s see why:

This post is an addition to my Non-Farm Payrolls preview published earlier this week.

New Figures

On Thursday, two major job-related figures were released. First, the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls showed a gain of 55,000 jobs, slightly below 68,000 that was expected. On the other hand, last month’s gain doubled to 65,000 on an upwards revision. All in all, ADP’s number for the private sector is aligning with the government’s number.

The private sector part of the Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to show a gain of 180,000. Also in previous months, the gain showed by ADP was smaller, but the trend is positive.

The second release was the weekly unemployment claims. Jobless claims dropped from 463K to 451K, within expectations. This number shows stability in joblessness, which confirms the expectations for a small drop in the unemployment rate – from 9.9% to 9.8%.

The rise in NFP expectations comes also from the ISM figures. The Non-Manufacturing sector, or services sector if you wish, remained unchanged, still a nice positive number – 55.4. A score above 50 means economic expansion. Also the manufacturing sector remained almost unchanged. In a report earlier in the week, it scored 59.7 points.

The American numbers didn’t provide huge surprises, but they confirmed a steady recovery on all fronts. Together with the government’s huge hiring towards the decennial census, the headline number of 524K – highest in 13 years, can be met.

General Notes

The release of the NFP is the most volatile event in forex trading, and has special characteristics. Here are my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading.

I highly recommend following the Non-Farm Payrolls release with an excellent webinar from Alex Kazmarck. The webinar will benefit traders of all levels. Kazmarck brings 10 years of market analysis experience, and will talk about pricing action as it is occurring before, during and after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data.

Registration to the webinar is free, but is limited to 100 registrants. Click here to join.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 59.6 from 60.4 in May. This drop comes after nine consecutive months of expansion but still reflects a relative growth in the US market.

In Canada, BOC Rate Statement is released revealing bank rate decisions and providing insight on future monetary policy.

More in Canada, Overnight Rate is foreseen to rise from 0.25% to 0.50% for the first time since April 2009, in light of the recent improvements in the Canada’s economic outlook expecting to give a positive drive to the economy.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber is intending to peak at the General Shareholder’s Meeting, in Frankfurt.

Also in Europe, German Unemployment Change is expected to continue its drop by 17000 after a decline of  68,000 in April and, 42,000 in March continuing the growth trend in Germany while in Europe, Unemployment Rate is expected to rise by 0.1% compared to 10.0% in April.

Later in Europe, German Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.7% after a drop of 1.6% in April.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to a drop of -0.1% in May giving a boost to the housing industry.

More in Great Britain, Manufacturing PMI is headed for a slight decrease of 0.2 points from 58.0 in May.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, SVME PMI is expected to reduce by 1.5 points compared to May’s 65.9 points and the GDP is expected to remain 0.7% as in the previous quarter.

In Australia, After the RBA Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 in April, the new RBA Rate Statement will reveal whether a further increase is in order.

More in Australia, Building Approvals is foreseen a drop by -4.9% compared to the sharp rise of 15.3% in May.

Later in Australia, Retail Sales are expected to remain 0.3% as in May and Cash rate is 4.50% is unlikely to change this month.

Finally in Australia, Commodity Prices are expected to increase again following the sharp rise of 29.4% in May.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The US dollar index reached new highs, especially on worries from Europe. This week, the big flow of American indicators, with the best kept for last, is expected to continue the trend of dollar strength. I recommend reading my notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading – this event is the most volatile release and should be handled with care. OK, let’s start:

1. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The US manufacturing sector has shown very good signs of recovery. In the past 8 months, the result has been above 50, indicating economic expansion. After surprising last month and reaching 59.6, further gains aren’t expected this time. This will rock the markets.
2. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. The recent Australian indicators, such as employment and housing indicate that the economy is advancing more slowly. With CPI at 0.9% in Q1, Glenn Stevens doesn’t need to hike the rates soon – he’ll probably raise the Cash Rate to 4.50% a  sixth rate hike. Note that a surprise could still occur – last month saw such a surprise. The wording of the RBA Rate Statement will move the Aussie on future expectations.
3. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Existing and new home sales rose significantly more than expected recently. Also the last release of pending home sales, 8.2% rise proved that the housing sector is on the move. A smaller rise is predicted this time – 3.3%.
4. American ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. Jobs in the private sector proved to be loosely correlated with the government’s NFP. Last month, ADP reported a loss of 23K jobs in the private sector, while the NFP sowed a gain of 123K jobs in this sector and 162K altogether. Still, this release always rocks the markets. A rise of 29K is predicted now.
5. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release, the services sector is also advancing, although it’s slower than the manufacturing sector. Here, a score above 50 was seen for only three straight months. After jumping from 53 to 55.4 last month, only a small advance to 56.2 is predicted this time.
6. New Zealand employment data: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. Employment figures are important everywhere, and even more important when they are released only once a quarter. A drop of 0.1% was seen last month, within expectations, but the unemployment rate leaped to 7.3%, far worse than expected. A significant drop in unemployment is necessary for a rate hike in New Zealand, but the unemployment rate isn’t expected to move.
7. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet will leave the European Minimum Bid Rate at 1%. Despite seeing inflation picking up, European employment is still problematic and the debt problems make it a very bad timing for such a move. The markets will mostly shake on Trichet’s words in the press conference due 45 minutes after the release. Any comment about the debt issues will rock the beaten Euro.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The last sign before the Non-Farm Payrolls is a significant one – highly correlated. We’ve seen an alarming rise in this weekly release in the middle of April, and then we’ve seen it improving. Another improvement, from 448K to 442K will raise the expectations for Friday.
9. Ben Bernanke talks: Begins speaking on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Following the mellow rate decision and the expected growth rate, will Bernanke lower the expectations from the economy? This speech, in a conference in Chicago, comes less than a day before the Non-Farm Payrolls and could shake the markets.
10. British elections: Thursday. Results due at 21:00 GMT. General elections will be held in Britain throughout the day. Gordon Brown’s ruling Labour party, James Cameron’s Tories and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are quite close to each other. A decisive result in the exit polls will help the Pound. The exit polls might not be decisive enough, so the uncertainty might continue until the official results are due. A hung parliament is feared.
11. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. After many excellent months, Canada’s latest employment change rose by “only” 18K last month, below expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 8.2%, also a small disappointment. This time, both numbers are predicted to make small advances, helping the loonie in the battle for parity.
12. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The king of forex was finally positive last month – a rise of 162K jobs boosted the dollar and created hopes for a sustainable recovery. The unemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Another drop in the unemployment rate and more job gains are expected this time.

That’s it for the major events this week.

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the kiwi, here’s the NZD/USD forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The tension towards Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls continues to mount. The dollar, that had a rough beginning to the week, is correcting the losses. Will this trend continue?

Australia’s Trade Balance starts the day with an expected rise of its deficit from 1.18 to 1.37 billion. Commodity prices will probably show a smaller year-over-year drop this time. Yesterday’s Australian figures were quite disappointing. Retail Sales and Building Approvals hurt the Aussie.

Another figure that will impact the Australian dollar is the Chinese Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to rise. China is Australia’s main trade partner. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa will make a public appearance a short time after the Tankan Manufacturing Index is released and at the beginning of a new fiscal year. He might shake the weakening Yen.

One day after Germany posted a big drop in unemployment, retail sales are due to rise by 0.1%. Also in Europe – Final Manufacturing PMI will probably confirm the initial read of 56.3 points.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Switzerland, the SVME PMI will probably rise from 57.4 to 58.9 points, pushing the Swissy higher.

In Britain, Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up from 56.6 to 56.8 points. This figure always rocks the Pound. Also in Britain – the BOE Credit Conditions Survey can show better conditions.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In the US, Challenger Job Cuts will give some general indication about the NFP. A bigger hint comes from the weekly Unemployment Clams which are predicted to edge down from 442K to 440K. This figure has proved correct in predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls.

Later in the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 56.5 to 57 points, showing a continuing steady recovery. This release will shake the markets.

Also in the US: Construction Spending is expected to drop by 1.1%, ISM Manufacturing Prices are predicted to rise to 67.3 points and two FOMC members will speak: James Bullard and William Dudley.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Non-Farm Payrolls are published on the first Friday of the month, as usual, but this time it’s Good Friday, a holiday in most countries. What will happen in the markets? And who will be there to trade? Apart from the regular events, financial leaders from the Group of 8 (G8) will be meeting in Gatineau, Canada and they might release some market moving statements. OK, let’s see the events:

1. British Final GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the first and second releases, Britain got out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, although it was partly due to a downwards revision of Q3’s number. The second release showed a growth rate of 0.3%, and this will probably be confirmed now. Any revision will rock the Pound.
2. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. 5,000 households are surveyed for this important survey on economic conditions. Last month saw a painful drop from 56.5 to 46 points, the lowest level since April 2009. A recovery to 50.3 is expected this time. Choppy trading will be seen during this time.
3. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s unemployment rate is big burden on policymakers, although it’s currently overshadowed by the debt problems in Greece and Portugal. The dip to 9.9% is a small psychological relief after reaching 10%. A rise back to double digits – 10%, as it was beforehand, will hurt the Euro.
4. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator has been on the rise in recent months, reaching 1.87 points last month, and exceeding expectations. It seems that the Swiss National Bank gave up on interventions and lets EUR/CHF fall, despite their strong words. This indicator will give another push to the Swissy. It’s expected to edge up to 1.91 points.
5. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. This important indicator always shakes the markets, but it is far from predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. In recent months, a positive surprise in this indicator meant a disappointment in the NFP, and vice versa. A loss of 20,000 jobs was reported last time. And now, a rise of 41,000 jobs is predicted.
6. Canadian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP surprised last month with a strong rise of 0.6%, boosting the Canadian dollar. The upcoming release is the first for 2010. We’ll probably see the positive trend continue in January as well with a rise of 0.5% in GDP.
7. Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. This is one of the most important Japanese indicators, released only once per quarter. About 1,200 manufacturers are surveyed by the Bank of Japan. The Tankan Manufacturing Index. The last score was -24, still negative, meaning worsening conditions, but the best since the end of 2008. Another improvement to -14 is predicted this time.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. American jobless claims have been improving in recent weeks, dropping from 496K to 442K. This weekly indicator has proved to be a good indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Another drop in claims will raise expectations for the major figure in the next day. They are expected to remain almost unchanged.
9. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector have been optimistic in the past 7 months, with a score above 50. After reaching a peak of 58.4 points, the score fell to 56.5 points last month. A small rise to 57.2 is expected this time.
10. American Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The king of forex is special this time – it’s published on Good Friday – Easter. Banks in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be closed. No other indicators are released on this day. Liquidity will be extremely low. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics will still publish this important figure. The US lost 36,000 jobs last month, slightly better than the low expectations. A huge gain of 187,000 jobs is expected now. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7% and is expected to remain unchanged this time as well.

That’s it for the major events this week.

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

As time goes by this week, trading will be more and more influenced by the tension towards the Non-Farm Payrolls. I suggest being careful with this event. OK, let’s start the review:

Australia’s Glenn Stevens might provide final hints to the upcoming rate decision in an early speech. Also in Australia, the AIG Manufacturing Index, Commodity Prices  and Current Account will be released, with the latter expected to show a bigger deficit.

Aussie traders have a busy week. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Europe, German Import Prices are predicted to rise by 0.8% and the Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at 54.1 points.

The more important release in Europe is the Unemployment Rate, which is predicted to tick up from 10 to 10.1%, showing the weakness of the Euro-zone.

For more on the Euro, check out the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

British Manufacturing PMI always rocks the Pound. After rising up to 56.7 points, the highest score in a long time, this indicator is expected to tick down to 56.5.

Also in Britain, Net Lending to Individuals is expected to drop from 1.2 billion to 0.7 billion, showing less activity. For more on the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast.

In Canada, monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.4%, exactly as the previous quarter. Note that this release completes Q4 of 2009 and should be interesting to watch.

Also in Canada, RMPI (Raw Materials Price Index), is expected to rise by 1.9%. For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise by 0.1% while Personal Spending will probably rise by 0.4%. Personal Income is expected to rise by 0.5%.

The more important release is the ISM Manufacturing PMI – this figure jumped to 58.4 points, and is now expected to soften to 57.9, which is also great. A better result will boost the dollar.

Japan closes the day with Household Spending, which is expected to show a year over year rise of 2.6%. The Japanese Unemployment Rate will probably remain unchanged at 5.1%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The Non-Farm Payrolls will definitely attract more and more attention and cause more tension as the week proceeds. Remember to be very careful with trading this event. Check out my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading. OK, let’s start the outlook:

1. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. One of biggest burdens on Europe is unemployment rate, standing at 10%, double digits, for two months. In Spain, the number reaches 20%. A drop in this figure is essential for moving the interest rate, but it will probably take the other direction and rise to 10.1%
2. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly GDP has posted three positive months, with the last print being better than expected 0.4%. The upcoming release is expected to show another 0.4% rise and completes the data for Q4 of 2009 and should provide another boost for the Canadian dollar.
3. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 15:00 GMT. This important purchasing managers’ index has been on the rise and jumped up to 58.4 points last month, significantly better than expected. It’s now predicted to ease to 57.9 points.
4. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. After last month’s disappointing decision not to raise the rates, there have been different hints about the upcoming decision, most of them leading to a fourth rate hike, to 4%. This should help the Australian dollar, that was hurt by risk aversion trading.
5. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 06:45 GMT. Switzerland was relived of 3 quarters of contraction in Q3 of 2009, when the economy grew by 0.3%. This stable recovery is expected to continue and push the Swissy upwards, despite the central bank’s effort to bring it down.
6. Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The BOC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and again, the focus will be on the rate statement. The BOC was very clear about the timing – June 2010. Some expected a declaration about an earlier move, but this didn’t happen in previous decisions. Will it happen this time?
7. American Beige Book: Published on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting which decides on rates, this overview of the economy is released to the public. This could provide a hint about the next decision, or the next moves by the Fed, such as the recent surprising mini rate hike.
8. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy enjoyed an improving job market throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, and this should be reflected in the GDP as well, showing the strength of the Australian economy. Q3 was disappointing, with a small growth rate of 0.2%. A strong growth rate of 0.9% is now expected.
9. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. This release always shakes the markets, as it’s sometimes considered to be a strong indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Last month it showed a loss of only 22K jobs, better than expected – but the Non-Farm Payrolls were worse than expected. So this figure should be handled with care. It’s expected to show a small drop of 9K.
10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. In the non-manufacturing sectors, the situation isn’t as good as in manufacturing. ISM showed a score of only 50.5 points, hardly above the critical 50 point mark that indicates economic expansion. This figure fell short of expectations in the past four months. A small rise to 51 is expected.
11. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Mervyn King hurts the Pound every week. This time, his chance will come at the decision about the Official Bank Rate which will probably stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program (Asset Purchase Facility) isn’t predicted to move from the 200 billion pound already allocated to it, but there might be hints about its renewal.
12. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Just 45 minutes after the British decision, Jean-Claude Trichet’s ECB will announce the European Minimum Bid Rate. Also here, no changes are expected, but the complementary ECB Press Conference will supply lots of action. The Greek crisis will still be in the limelight.
13. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Providing the last hint about the Non-Farm Payrolls, this weekly release is expected to show some improvement after last week’s disappointing figure – a rise to 496K, a number not seen in a long time. It’s expected to drop back to 474K.
14. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This figure returned to stability last month, rising by 1%, but this time it’s predicted to fall again as the housing sector continues to suffer, as we see in the new and existing home sales numbers. A rise of 1.6% is expected.
15. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. After two more months of negative numbers, the king of forex, the predictions now turned negative. Last month’s releases were confusing, as 20K jobs were lost, but the unemployment rate dropped significantly from 10% to 9.7%. Will it be confusing again? Or will we see finally see good numbers? This event will impact forex trading before and after the event, for quite some time. Current expectations are for another loss of jobs: 35,000. Also the unemployment rate is expected to be bad, edging up to 9.8%.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages. Have a great week!

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Australia starts the day with many figures: the AIG Manufacturing Index is expected to rise while the MI Inflation Gauge is predicted to remain stable. After seeing strong official employment numbers, the ANZ Job Advertisements will supply another look and will move the Aussie.

Australian HPI is predicted to follow last quarter’s rise with another 3.7% jump. Finally, Commodity Prices which have a strong impact on the Australian economy, are expected to show a lower year-over-year drop. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, SVME PMI will move the USD/CHF. The beaten Euro will only receive a minor indicator today: Final Manufacturing PMI.

For more on the Euro’s busy week, read the EUR/USD forecast. I also recommend caching up on technicals from Casey Stubbs.

British Manufacturing PMI is predicted to remain unchanged at 54.1 points. This is an important figure for the Pound. At the same time, Net Lending to Individuals is predicted to rise to 1.2 billion.

For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

In the US, the Core PCE Price Index is predicted to rise by 0.1% after remaining unchanged last month. Personal Spending and Personal Income are both expected to be on the rise – an indication for healthy recovery.

The first major event in the US this week is the ISM Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to rise from 54.9 to 55.5 points. A higher rise will boost the dollar. Note that Treasury Secretary Geithner will be speaking at the same time, so around 15:00 GMT, the markets will rock.

Near the end of the day, New Zealand’s Labor Cost Index is predicted to rise by 0.5%, more than last quarter. This will help keep the kiwi above the ground.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.