Forex Crunch » Jean-Claude Trichet

ECB Set to Reverse Policy? Preview

Yohay — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 10:00:53 +0000

The first euro-zone rate decision under the new ECB president Mario Draghi comes at a bad timing of a slowdown in the zones’ economies. There’s a significant chance that Draghi will reverse the last rate hike of his predecessor. ECB Preview.

Jean-Claude Trichet held the helm for 8 years and proved to be very tough with the interest rate. In July 2011, Trichet raised the rate for the second time since the 2008 financial crisis erupted to 1.50%, in a decision that was heavily criticized. Draghi will likely take one step backwards.

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Greece aims to shoot itself in the foot

Yohay — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 12:41:57 +0000

Last week’s EU agreement was just about holding together until last night, when Greece threw in the curve-ball of announcing a referendum on the deal. Many Greeks feel that the option of full default, letting the bond-holders take the full hit is better than the restructuring currently being negotiated and the years of austerity currently planned.

But this puts the troika in a difficult position. Having just agreed the latest EUR 5.8bn loan instalment, it is now faced with the position of lending further money to a country that could potentially renege on the conditions of all the outstanding lending. Greece has EUR 8.2bn of maturing debt in December and EUR 15.1bn in Q1 next year. It would be totally irresponsible for the EU and IMF to disburse any more money to Greece whilst the potential for a rejection of the new EU/IMF deal is possible.

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Haircut for the ECB – A Step Forward for a Comprehensive Solution

Yohay — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 17:45:03 +0000

The banks have now reportedly agreed for a 40% haircut on Greek debt. Germany and other countries want more even 60%. But wait. This is by no means a reduction of 40% or 60% in the Greek Olympus of debt. It applies only the private sector.

In order for the Greek debt to become sustainable, and the solution to be comprehensive, the haircut should be more even and include another big bondholder – the ECB, part of the “Official Sector”.

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Forex Daily Outlook – October 24 2011

anat — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 20:00:00 +0000

Mo – We start the week with Flash Manufacturing PMI in Europe and MPC Member Tucker speech in the UK as the main highlight on today’s outlook. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, William Dudley, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, is due to deliver a speech in Bronx.

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Forex Daily Outlook – October 21 2011

anat — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 21:00:49 +0000

Public Sector Net Borrowing in the UK and CPI in Canada are the major events this day. Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us.

In the US, Narayana Kocherlakota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President, is about to speak in Minneapolis.

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EUR/USD Oct. 12 – Breaks Higher On Strong Optimism

Yohay — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 09:12:14 +0000

Euro dollar made an impressive breakout above the 1.37 line it struggled with for several days. Fresh promises that a serious solution is close push the pair higher. The fears after the Slovak rejection of the new EFSF powers were replaced by optimism that it’s only a matter of days before the final ratification. Also the surprising leap in industrial production helps the euro. Today we also have the FOMC Meeting Minutes, among other events.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

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Forex Daily Outlook – October 12 2011

anat — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 21:00:16 +0000

FOMC Meeting Minutes in the US and Claimant Count Change in the UK are the main events today. Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, full record of the latest FOMC’s meeting, the visions into the financial and monetarist conditions that prejudiced on where to set the interest rates.

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EUR/USD Oct. 11 – Consolidating on High Ground

Yohay — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 07:58:54 +0000

Euro dollar continues enjoying the promise to “get serious” about the crisis from Merkel and Sarkozy and is sitting comfortably in high range. When will the market demand details? The Slovak parliament might approve the EFSF powers today, providing more back wind for the common currency as North America returns from the short holiday.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

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Forex Daily Outlook – October 11 2011

anat — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 21:00:19 +0000

ECB President Trichet Speaks in Europe and Manufacturing Production in the UK are the main events lined up. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP), Economic Optimism, Survey (900 consumers) to rate the financial conditions economic outlook for the 6-month, a rise from 39.9 points on September to 43.2 points now is forecasted.

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Trichet Announces More Liquidity – EUR/USD Ticks Higher

Yohay — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:10:00 +0000

Jean-Claude announced new liquidity measures, for the longer terms and also a new covered bond program. He repeats the same assessments about growth and inflation. EUR/USD is rising very moderately in his last press conference as the president of the ECB. His final decision after 8 years was to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%.

Trichet calls for more fiscal consolidation and also for the banks to take measures. EUR/USD temporarily recaptured 1.33 but retreated. It is trying to recover from the really big move announced in Britain. Live updates. Will the euro eventually change course on these weak decisions?

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