USD/CAD Outlook – June 7-11

The Canadian dollar didn’t really enjoy the rate hike and the better-than expected GDP, in a very busy week. The governor of the central bank will have a chance to explain the rate hike and talk about future moves, and there are additional releases as well. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

usd cad

Job data was better than expected in Canada, but this was far from enough to battle the might greenback that enjoyed risk aversive trading on Friday, following the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls. This week features a head to head battle with the trade balance. Let’s start:

  1. Mark Carney talks: Starts speaking on Monday at 17:50 GMT, and will hold another speech on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Following his move on the rates, the BOC’s governor will have a chance to explain the move and lay out his expectations for the next months in a conference in Montreal.
  2. Housing Starts: Published on Tuesday at 12:15 GMT. This major indicator has steadily climbed in recent months. It already passed the 200K mark, standing at 201K last month (annualized). The forecast for housing starts is another climb to 206K.
  3. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The surplus in the Canadian trade balance dropped sharply last month to 0.3 billion, indicating weaker demand abroad. The surplus is expected to grow back to 0.7 billion, still lower than two months ago. At the same time, the American trade balance is released as well, making it a volatile timing for USD/CAD. In the US, the deficit is expected to remain almost unchanged at 40 billion.
  4. NHPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT and overshadowed by the trade balance release. This housing figure has also showed steady growth in recent months, ticking up slowly, too slow. The New House Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3%, exactly like last month.
  5. Capacity Utilization Rate: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The economy is still far from utilizing all its resources, but an improvement is underway. The forecasts stand on a rise from 70.9% to 73.4% in the utilization rate.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The Canadian dollar traded between 1.04 and 1.0550 during most of the week. It then dipped below 1.04 and reached 1.0333, but that proved to be a false break. Friday’s extreme trading sent it to the other direction, it broke above 1.0550 and closed at 1.0623.

USD/CAD currently trades between 1.0550 and 1.0750. Most lines haven’t changed since last week. The upper border is very strong – it used to be the resistance line of a trading range that the loonie was in for several months, and also worked as a resistance line recently.

Higher, 1.0850 is the next line of resistance, working as such before the loonie entered the range. The next line is 1.1130, which capped the pair more than once, and now provides strong resistance. Even higher, 1.1470 is the next stronghold, but that’s quite far now.

Looking down, 1.04 remains a strong line of support, despite being falsely broken recently. Below, 1.03 provides minor support, and it’s followed by a more important line – 1.02, which was the 2009 low, and worked as a clear line of support and resistance in recent weeks.

The ultimate line of support is parity, a line that the pair reached in April, but seems quite far now.

I am bearish on USD/CAD

The fresh figures from Canada were quite convincing. The rate hike should push the pair lower, overcoming risk aversive trading that follows bad news from Europe.

Further reading:

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