Post Tagged with: "Mark Carney"

UK Unemployment Rate crosses the 7.0% Threshold

It’s a good thing Bank of England Mark Carney has changed his forward guidance to look at spare capacity as opposed to just unemployment as today should see the rate edge 0.1% lower to 7.1%, a stone’s throw from his original threshold of 7.0% that would have triggered the first interest rate hike in the UK.  Despite his arch dovishness and yesterday’s fall in inflation for the UK, sterling was very quick to reverse initial weakness and GBPUSD rallied back above the 1.6700 level, this morning it trades at 1.6745.  Only last week cable hit a fresh four year high, putting 1.7000 in sight and with the near term trend continuing to maintain an upward bias, bulls of sterling will be closely watching for a test of resistance seen at the recent highs around 1.6820.

Despite the headline figure being key and also the claimant count number likely to drive sterling’s moves today, commentators will be focusing more on the potentially headline grabbing average earnings figure.  This is due to come in at 1.7%, higher than yesterday’s 1.6% CPI number and the first sign than real incomes are increasing.  For those serious inflation bears out there, this could prevent any continued steep decline in inflation as the already consumer lead recovery in the UK picks up steam.

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GBP/USD Long Term Uptrend to Continue

GBP/USD Long Term Uptrend to Continue

The daily time frame of GBP/USD shows an uptrend that is still very much intact, as the pair came off a test of the bottom of the rising channel and resumed its climb. The 1.6550 to 1.6600 area of interest has held as support and a complex double bottom has formed on the test of [&hellip

Forex Weekly Outlook March 17-21

Forex Weekly Outlook March 17-21

The yen is the winner of a turbulent trading week which saw new highs for the euro and the kiwi. The first rate decision by Janet Yellen is the main event. Among other highlights are the German Economic Sentiment, speeches by heads of central banks, UK employment data, as well as US employment and housing [&hellip

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 24-28

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 24-28

Weaker than expected data was reported almost everywhere. After suffering losses, can the US dollar emerge as a winner? Euro-zone inflation, Us consumer confidence, Housing data, Unemployment Claims and GDP data from the US, UK and Canada are among the major events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week. [&hellip

UK data analysis: Carney has more breathing space to support the fragile recovery

UK data analysis: Carney has more breathing space to support the fragile recovery

Mark Carney did express some concerns about the economy and stressed that monetary policy in the UK would remain accommodative. Well, the recent round of top tier figures came out below expectations, and allows the Bank to maintain lower rates for longer. After the enhanced forward guidance, the pound rallied against its peers and reached [&hellip

Pound dominates this week, and probably the next

Pound dominates this week, and probably the next

The British Pound dominated currency market headlines this week. Action being driven by Wednesday’s Bank of England (BoE) Inflation Report, in which the 2014 GDP forecast was revised higher. Following a series of better than expected economic data results, most notably in retail sales & employment statistics, the BoE now expects the UK economy to [&hellip

Janet Yellen’s testimony calms markets

Janet Yellen’s testimony calms markets

The financial markets welcomed Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress on monetary policy with open arms yesterday, embracing the continuity between a Bernanke-led FOMC and the new Yellen-influenced regime.  There were not a lot of surprises in either Yellen’s prepared remarks or her Q&A period, reiterating her pledge to continue tapering absent a notable change in the [&hellip

Carney Enhances Forward Guidance – GBP/USD jumps

Carney Enhances Forward Guidance – GBP/USD jumps

The Inflation Report by the Bank of England is certainly supportive of the pound. Carney is praising the Forward Guidance but also adopts a cautious stance. No change to forward guidance is seen in the report, but Carney outlined GBP/USD was trading at around 1.6490 towards the publication of the report, rising from lower ground. [&hellip

Forex Weekly Outlook February 10-14

Forex Weekly Outlook February 10-14

The USD and the JPY retreated in a week that saw a fresh “risk on” atmosphere, even though the Non-Farm Payrolls left a lot of confusion. Janet Yellen’s testimony before the US Senate, Mark Carney’s speech, Australian employment figures and US retail sales and consumer confidence are the highlights of this week. Here is an [&hellip

Forex Weekly Outlook Jan. 27-31

Forex Weekly Outlook Jan. 27-31

The Japanese yen was the big winner of a volatile week that saw new levels for a few currency pairs, and ended with risk off sentiment. The Fed decision is naturally the most important event, and is accompanied by the first releases of GDP in the US and the UK, as well as other events. [&hellip