USD/CAD Outlook – March 8-12
The Canadian dollar broke lower. It’s now awaiting the all-important employment figures. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events in Canada and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
One of the things that helped the loonie was the GDP release – it showed that the Canadian economy is growing at a faster rate than expected. Will jobs continue to show the same positive trend? Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:
- Housing Starts: Published on Monday at 13:15 GMT. The Canadian housing sector is advancing steadily month by month. 186K housing starts were reported last month, slightly better than expected. This figure is expected to be left unchanged this time.
- Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s trade balance is expected to flip from a deficit of 0.2 billion to a surplus of 0.4 billion. The American trade balance is released at the same time, making it a very volatile time to trade USD/CAD.
- NHPI: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT and overshadowed by the trade balance. The second housing sector figure this week relates to new house prices. Prices have risen in the past six months, usually in small scale. Following last month’s 0.4% rise, prices will probably advance by 0.5%.
- Mark Carney talks: Starts speaking on Thursday at 19:05 GMT. In the recent rate decision, Carney didn’t change the schedule for a rate hike (as in previous decisions), but he did cite rising inflation as a concern. The tone of this speech, in the Carleton University in Ottawa will probably shake the loonie.
- Employment data: Published on Friday at 12:00 GMT. In recent months, the Canadian job market is improving with occasional hiccups. Last month was really excellent: employment change showed a big rise in jobs 43,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, also a great positive surprise. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3% and the number of employed people is expected to rise by 17,500. This will supply a strong ending for the week.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD broke below the 1.04 line that it struggled with at the beginning of the week. Later in the week, it steadily went lower, bottoming out at 1.0260 before closing at 1.0290.
Support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. USD/CAD is now bound between 1.02 and 1.04, a range that it knows from the past.
Above 1.04 (which is now a resistance line), 1.0680 provides minor resistance before 1.0780 which is a big technical hurdle. It’s the upper border of a bigger range that the loonie traded for a long time.
Even higher, 1.0850 is the next resistance line. It was a peak before the pair entered the current range. Higher, 1.1130 was tested a few times in the past and serves as another resistance line.
Looking down, 1.02 is a strong support line – it worked as such earlier this year. 1.02 was also the 2009 low for this pair. The ultimate support line is 1.0000 – USD/CAD parity. This was last seen a long time ago, but it could be approached soon.
I am bearish on USD/CAD.
The strength of the Canadian economy was seen again in the GDP release and will probably be seen in jobs. 1.02 is a very strong hurdle before parity.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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Forex Daily Outlook – March 2nd 2010
The week began with a strong start, especially for the British Pound, which was knocked down. Today, more important events are awaiting us with rate decisions in Australia and Canada being in the limelight. Let’s see what’s up for today.
Australian action starts the day: Retail Sales made a nice leap last month, rising by 2.2%, [...]
USD/CAD Outlook – March 1-5 2010
The Canadian dollar retreated this week but didn’t lose too much. The week ahead contains the GDP release, a rate decision and a few more important events. Here’s the outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
One figure is missing from [...]
USD/CAD Outlook – February 15-19
In the past week, the loonie gained nice ground against the greenback. The upcoming week provides many important indicators. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD.CAD graph with resistance and support lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The most important release is CPI. Can prices pick up and accelerate the [...]
USD/CAD Outlook – February 8-12
The Canadian dollar retreated against the greenback on a wild week but was less damaged than other currencies. The upcoming week provides a double-feature trade balance release among other events. Here’s an updated outlook for Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD.CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – February 4th 2010
Very busy day ahead: rate decisions in Britain and Europe are the highlights in a crowded calendar, one day before the Non-Farm Payrolls.
Things are shaky in the forex market. The dollar weakened during the week but then erased the losses after the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls was good. The major pair, EUR/USD is currently holding steady. [...]
USD/CAD Outlook – February 1-5 2010
Looking for the latest outlook for this week? Check the full section: Canadian Dollar Forecast
The Canadian dollar also lost ground to the greenback, but didn’t lose any important lines. The upcoming week provides important job figures among other indicators. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian dollar and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD chart with [...]
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