Forex Daily Outlook – November 17th 2009

After Bernanke’s words and retails sales didn’t do much to the markets, today’s British CPI and American PPI stand out in quite a busy day. Let’s see what’s up for today:

Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes didn’t send a clear message about future rate hikes. AUD/USD remains in the same trading zone as yesterday – around 0.9350. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

A video from a partner:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales are expected to rise by 1.1% after falling by 1% last month. Later, SNB Governing Board Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth will be speaking. USD/CHF is now at 1.0080.

British CPI is expected to rise by 1.4% (annualized). This will be higher than last month’s 1.1% rise, which touches the limit of the expected range: 1-3%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 1.7%, exactly like last month, and RPI (Retail Price Index) which shows the negative side of prices, is expected to fall once again, this time by 0.9% after a 1.4% drop last month.

If CPI fails to meet the target, Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, will have to issue a letter explaining the reasons for this, and especially stating what things he intends to do.

GBP/USD is now trading higher, at 1.6852. For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

European Trade Balance is expected to turn negative, with a small deficit of 0.9 billion. EUR/USD is now at 1.4970. Casey Stubbs shows that EUR/USD is now officially in a range.

For more on the Euro’s week, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

In the US, PPI is predicted to rise by 0.6%, after a drop of the same scale last month. Only a big jump will move Bernanke out of the “extended period” of low rates. Core PPI is also expected to remain low, rising 0.1% after a 0.1% drop last month.

Another major American release is TIC Long-Term Purchases, which shows the cash flow of dollars. It’s predicted to drop from 28.6 to 27.3 billion, and is expected to move the markets at 14:00 GMT.

Later in the US, Capacity Utilization Rate is predicted to rise from 70.5% to 70.9%, and Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.4%, less than last month.

Towards the end of the day, a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle is due, and might move the Aussie.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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