In the US, US Unemployment Claims, a weekly major indicator of economic health, and an early indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls, expected to rise back to 453K following the previous dip to 429K.

More in the US, American Existing Home Sales is another leading indicator of economic health expected to continue decreasing from 5.66 to 5.15 million following last month’s dip.

Finally in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

In Canada, BOC Monetary Policy Report is released providing valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation followed by a Press Conference where valuable information could be revealed.

More in Canada, Core Retail Sales forecasted 0.5% rise following the 1.2% drop in the previous month indicating improvement in market activity. Retail Sales including Automobile sales are expected the same 0.5% rise following 2.0% decrease in the previous month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, European Industrial New Orders an extensive release for the whole region, a small drop of 0.1% is expected following a three month rise.

More in Europe, French Flash Manufacturing PMI continues the positive growth trend despite a small drop to 54.1 points foreseen now and the French Flash Services PMI is expected to reach 60.0 points very close to last month 60.8 points. German Flash Manufacturing PMI also expected a modest drop from 58.4 to 58.0 points and German Flash Services PMI forecasted to reach 54.6 points following 54.8 in June, nevertheless, these figures still point to economic expansion.

Finally in Europe, the continent’s Flash Manufacturing PMI expected to reach 55.2 points – 0.4 less than in June and Flash Services PMI forecasted 55.0 points 0.5 points weaker than in June.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Retail Sales expected another 0.5% rise following the 0.6% rise in the previous month, certainly encouraging news for the British market.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, National Australia Bank Quarterly Business Confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, has been rising in the past three months and is expected to do so again.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Consumer Confidence is up in the US, a leading indicator of consumer spending released monthly shows an expected rise from 52.5 to 53.7 points.

Later in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, in Washington DC. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. This could stir up things in the US market.

More encouraging news from the US, Composite-20 House Price Index, released monthly, indicator of the housing industry’s health, is expected to edge up from -0.7% to 1.4%. This could increase housing market activity.

Finally in the US, Richmond Manufacturing Index, a survey of manufacturers in the Richmond area shows an expected rise from 6 to 7 points.

In Canada, Mark, Carney Bank of Canada’s governor testifies before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa. This could lead to change in currency and future monetary policy.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German Consumer Climate index, a leading indicator of consumer spending is also expected to rise from 3.2 points to 3.4 points showing improvement in the overall economic situation.

Also in Europe, Following a speech of the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet at the Council on Global Affairs, in Chicago and at the Kellogg School of Management in Chicago Illinois, changes are likely to occur in the Euro currency.

Also in Germany, German Import Prices index, released monthly, measuring change in the price of imported goods purchased domestically, is expected to rise slightly from 1% to 1.2%.

In Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator is likely to remain the same as last month around 1.20 points.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Confederation of British Industry realized sales are expected to jump from 13 points to 16 points as a leading indicator of consumer spending it shows a positive vibe in the British market.

More in Great Britain, British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals is expected to edge up from 35.3K to 39.3K. As the representative of more than 60% of total UK mortgage lending it shows a positive tendency in the market.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Producer Price Index a leading indicator of consumer inflation tends to rise from -0.4% to 0.7%.

More in Australia, National Australia Bank Quarterly Business Confidence, released quarterly used as a leading indicator of economic health will probably remain around 18 points.

Finally in Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Dr. Guy Debelle speaks at the Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia’s Breakfast Seminar, in Sydney. Is bound to change interest rates in the Australian market.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Retail Sales are expected to go down from 4.2% to 3.7%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

AUD/USD finished the week a little bit higher, and tested new ground. This week’s inflation figures and 5 other indicators will shape the direction of the Aussie. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the Aussie, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD

AUD/USD forex chart, with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

The hawkish words from the meeting minutes helped the Aussie. This was the meeting that decided to raise the rates. Which country will follow Australia? while the weaker than expected Chinese growth hurt the Aussie. Will this week’s inflation figures support another rate hike? Let’s see what’s up this week:

1. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Publication time is still unknown – it was delayed for two weeks. Contrary to other Australian figures, this one has been negative in the past 6 months, with -4 last time. Expectations for improving conditions are expected this time – a positive number.
2. PPI: Producer Price Index has been soft in the past two quarters- negative and falling below expectations. Despite these figures, the RBA raised the rates. This quarter, PPI is expected to rise by 0.3%. A higher number would push for more rate hikes. Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
3. CPI: Completing Monday’s PPI, Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, at 00:30 GMT. Here, prices have rise in the past two quarters, with 0.5% last time. Prices are expected to accelerate, and rise by 0.9% this quarter. This is the most important publication of this week. The Aussie will shake during this release. Together with the CPI, the accompanying figure, Trimmed Mean CPI (Core CPI in other countries) is expected to rise by 0.8%, exactly like the previous quarter.
4. Malcolm Edey speaks: RBA Assistant Governor Edey is going to talk about current affairs on Wednesday at 1:00 GMT. In previous public appearances, Edey has been very cautious on recovery. Now, after the rate hike, will he express more optimism? Strong words will move the markets.
5. CB Leading Index: This is a composite index made of 7 economic indicators. Although  it’s a late index that is made out of data that has already been released, it sometimes surprises. In the past two months, it has risen nicely (0.7% last time), but previous data has been revised downwards. Published on Wednesday at 23:00 GMT.
6. HIA New Home Sales:  The Housing Industry Association publishes this monthly number of new home sales on sometime during Thursday. After two months of stability, this index rose by 11.4% last month, indicating an acceleration also in the housing industry.
7. Private Sector Credit: This is one of Australia’s most stable indicators. Its moves are very small. In the past three months, borrowing has risen very modestly. Expectations for the current release are modest as well – a rise of 0.2%. Will private borrowing jump as well? Published on Friday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with renewed strength, regaining the losses and even passing the 0.9290 resistance line. It went as high as 0.9327, but closed much lower, at 0.9222.

I’m leaving the 0.9290 minor resistance line from last week’s AUD/USD outlook. Above that, 0.9346 served as a minor resistance line in the summer of 2008, and also stopped the Aussie’s ride this week.

A major resistance line appears at 0.95, a round number that has been tested in the past.

Looking down, 0.9090 is a rather strong support line, serving as a support and resistance line recently. Below that, 0.8950 was a line that the Aussie bounced on before climbing to the current levels.

My bullish sentiment continues for the Aussie. This week’s inflation numbers should help the Aussie rise towards parity.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The Aussie had an  excellent week, reaching new highs without stopping. This week’s RBA meeting minutes, Chinese GDP and 5 other releases will set the direction of the Aussie. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the Aussie, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD forex chart, with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens made hawkish comments regarding future rate hikes. This sure helped push the Aussie higher, together with dollar weakness, especially during the last Asian session. This week, the Aussie will also move by the Chinese bells. Let’s see awaiting us:

1. Philip Lowe talks: RBA Assistant Governor Philip Lowe will be speaking about the role of China for the Australian economy, before some major Chinese releases are made later in the week. A positive outlook for Asia will help the Aussie. He’ll speak on Monday at 2:00 GMT.
2. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Publication time is still unknown – it was delayed from last week. Contrary to other Australian figures, this one has been negative in the past 6 months, with -4 last time. Expectations for improving conditions are expected this time – a positive number.
3. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The RBA was the first central bank in the West to raise interest rates after the crisis. We get to see what bankers were discussing during the rate hike decision, and especially see how hawkish they are about the future. Glenn Stevens already hinted that more rate hikes are due. More hints on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT.
4. MI Leading Index: The Melbourne Institute published this highly regarded compound index on Wednesday at at midnight. After rising by 1.1% last month, the positive trend is expected to continue – this is based on data that has already been released.
5. Chinese GDP: I’m referring to Chinese economic indicators for the first time here, since they have a growing impact on the Australian economy. One of the primary reasons that Australia didn’t enter recession is thank to the Chinese growth. After cooling down during the recession, China’s growth has accelerated back to an annual rate of 7.9% in the second quarter. In Q3, the Chinese economy economy probably grew by 9%, according to early estimations. A strong growth rate in China will push AUD/USD higher. Published on Thursday at 2:00 GMT.
6. Chinese Industrial Production: The second most important Chinese release is due at the same time, Thursday at 2:00 GMT. Also here, production has accelerated up to 12.3% last month, and is expected to rise by 13.3% (annually adjusted) this month. Other Chinese releases are CPI and PPI and Chinese retail sales, but they are of smaller impact to the Aussie.
7. Import Prices: This quarterly indicator has fallen in the past two quarters, and is expected to fall also this time, by 2.6%. A rise in import prices will put pressure for another rate hike. Published on Friday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD made nice steps upwards last week, rising above the minor resistance line of 0.9090 and continuing higher. Riding on the fall of the dollar in the last Asian session, AUD/USD reached a peak of 0.9270 before falling and closing the week at 0.9164.

In last week’s Aussie Outlook, I’ve mentioned 0.9090, a line that was broken and held. This is the first support for the Aussie. Further down, 0.8950 serves as a another support line that was a resistance line the Aussie bounced from before climbing higher.

Looking up, the strong resistance line of 0.9290 was tested, somewhat from afar. This is the first and important resistance line. Further up,  0.95 is a round number, and also served as a resistance line in the past. If the Aussie continues that far, it will stop there.

There’s no change in my bullish sentiment towards the Aussie. Strong figures, and a hawkish policy by the RBA support the currency.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of the major events this week, read the Forex Weekly Forecast.
• For the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.
• For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD Outlook.
• For the Canadian dollar, check out the USD/CAD Outlook

AUD/USD forex graph, with support and resistance lines inside. Click to enlarge:

Glenn Stevens raised the Australian interest rate to 3.25%, being the pioneer in rate hikes. It raised the question about which country will be next to raise the rates. Later, the Aussie bounced off a resistance line, but the excellent employment figures took it over the top. This week, Stevens will continue to impact the Aussie in various ways. Let’s see what’s awaiting us:

1. NAB Business Confidence: The National Australia Bank surveys 450 businesses about the current economic conditions. This survey showed improving conditions in the past 3 months, with the score being on the rise. Last month’s score of 18 points is expected to followed by an even better one this time. Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT.
2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Another Australian Bank brings a consumer survey this time. Westpac surveys 1200 consumers about their thoughts of the economy, focusing on future purchases. This indicator has risen in the past 4 months, with a rise of 5.2% last month. A more modest rise is expected this time. Published on Wednesday at midnight.
3. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: We return to the National Australia Bank for another business survey – a quarterly one. The report for the third quarter might be published as early as Wednesday, but could be released later. Contrary to other Australian figures, this one has been negative in the past 6 months, with -4 last time. Expectations for improving conditions are expected this time – a positive number.
4. Glenn Stevens speaks: After last week’s rate hike and the excellent employment figures, RBA governor Glenn Stevens will speak in Perth and will speak about future policy. His speech is due on Wednesday at 23:30 GMT.
5. MI Inflation Expectations: The Melbourne Institute publishes this early inflation data before the government’s CPI. Australian prices have picked up slowly, with annually adjusted expectations at 3.5% in the last two months. A higher figure now will justify Glenn Stevens’ decision to raise the rates. Published on Thursday at midnight.
6. RBA Monthly Bulletin: Completing the assessments for the economy, this report by the RBA gives us an insight to how they see the situation, and may hint about future policy. The report is released on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

As aforementioned, the Aussie traded on data last week, testing the 0.8950 resistance line mentioned in last week’s AUD/USD Outlook, before riding on the employment figures and climbing above them, closing at 0.9035.

0.8950 now serves as a support line for AUD/USD. Below that, 0.85 is a major support line, that the Aussie had a hard time breaking it.

Looking up, 0.9090 was the peak AUD/USD reached. This also worked as a resistance line in 2008 and 2008. A stronger resistance line is at 0.93, which was a support line last summer, when the Aussie was close to parity with the US dollar.

I continue to be bullish on the Aussie, but it might take a rest this week. All the economic indicators are positive, and the growing yield makes it attractive. After a big ride, the Aussie might take a rest this week and trade in a range before gathering more momentum.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of the major events this week, read the Forex Weekly Outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.
• For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD Outlook
• For the Canadian dollar, check out the USD/CAD  Outlook.

Monday, July 27th: European GfK German Consumer Climate is the first significant indicator this week. It’s expected to stay unchanged. Later in Europe, M3 Money Supply might be of interest.

In the US, New Home Sales are predicted to follow the trend and rise to 354K. This will be closely watched. Later in America, a televised  interview with Ben Bernanke will be aired on PBS. Note that the interview was recorded 24 hours earlier and might leak.

New Zealand’s Trade Balance closes the day. The surplus is predicted to squeeze.

Tuesday, July 28th: Australia starts the day with many events: CB Leading Index, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence and a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will all move the Aussie.

British CBI Realized Sales are expected to be somewhat better, but still negative. The road to British recovery is long.

In the US, CB Consumer Confidence is predicted to drop slightly after improving in recent months. Also note the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI which gives a look at the housing sector from the price angle.

New Zealand’s Building Consents are expected to turn negative after rising last month. This is an important figure for the kiwi.

Japanese Retail Sales close the day with an expected fall of 2.5%.

Wednesday, July 29th: Australia starts the day again with HIA New Home Sales. New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Confidence will be of interest to kiwi traders.

German Prelim CPI will be published throughout the day and there’s no hope of Europe getting out of its deflation.

Durable Goods Orders and also the Core value are expected to fall after making surprising rises last month. This is a very important figure for the greenback. Later in the US, the Beige Book will give a broad look at the economy.

New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate isn’t expected to change, and stay high at 2.5%. Kiwi traders will closely watch the RBNZ Rate Statement.

Japan closes the day (again) with the important Prelim Industrial Production. It’s expected to rise by 2.5% after making a higher leap last time.

Thursday, July 30th: You guessed it right. An Australian figure starts the day: Building Approvals are expected to rise nicely.

British Nationwide HPI is predicted to rise modestly for a third month in a row.

German Unemployment Change is predicted to rise significantly. This isn’t good for Merkel’s election campaign.

Canadian RMPI and IPPI will move the loonie later on.

American Unemployment Claims are expected to worsen once again, rising to 578K. Obama “promised” that the unemployment rate will rise above 10%.

GfK Consumer Confidence will be published quite late in Britain. Japan’s Household Spending is predicted to rise while Tokyo Core CPI is expected to fall. Japan’s prices are low, and they’ll probably continue to fall.

Friday, July 31st: European CPI Flash Estimate is expected to fall. I already mentioned deflation…

In Switzerland, the highly regarded KOF Economic Barometer is predicted to improve but still remain negative. This is a major release for USD/CHF.

Canadian GDP is predicted to fall by 0.4% in the previous month, after dropping by 0.1% last month. It’ll be overshadowed by the American GDP.

Advance GDP in the US is predicted to show a contraction of 1.3% in the second quarter. This early indicator will be closely watched by forex traders as well as the Obama administration.

Also note the accompanying quarterly figures: Advance GDP Price Index and Employment Cost Index which are both expected to rise.

The last figure for the week  is Chicago PMI which is expected to rise.

That’s it. I’ll later post coverages for the Canadian dollar, British Pound and perhaps the Australian or New Zealand dollars.

Further reading:

• For a coverage of GBP/USD, check out the British Pound Outlook.
• For a coverage of USD/CAD, read the Canadian Dollar Outlook.

In Australia, CB Leading Index rose by 0.2%, showing that the Australian economy is still stable. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence fell by 24 points. And the Private Sector Credit in Australia rose by 0.1%. AUD/USD now trades at 0.7273, keeping it’s gains. 

GfK Consumer Confidence in Britain was slightly better than expected, falling by -27. Also Nationwide HPI  was better than expected, falling by only 0.4%. Good signs from Britain? GBP/USD is trading above 1.48.

In Japan, Prelim Industrial Production is on the rise: it climbed by 1.6%, double the early expectations much better than last month’s dive. The Overnight Call Rate in Japan stayed at 0.1%, unchanged. Also the Monetary Policy Statement proved to be a non-event. Will the BOJ Press Conference be more interesting? Maybe the BOJ Outlook Report?

In Europe, German Unemployment Change will be closely watched by traders. It’s expected to rise by 65K. The CPI Flash Estimate is predicted to rise by 0.7% – deflation. Also note the European Unemployment Rate. Despite being a late figure, it’s quoted by the media and puts pressure on the ECB. EUR/USD is trading higher, at 1.3327.

In Canada, the monthly GDP report is expected to be almost unchanged at -0.1%, after last month’s fall of 0.7%. Also Purchasing Managers Index figures will be published in Canada, with both RMPI and IPPI expected to rise.

In the US, Unemployment Claims are predicted to stay stable at 639K. The American job market is suffering. The quarterly Employment Cost Index is predicted to rise by 0.5%.

Also in the US, Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise by 0.2% and Personal Spending is estimated to fall by 0.1%. 

Later, Chicago PMI is expected to improve, rising to 35 points.

Near the end of the day, Japanese Household Spending is expected to fall by 2.6%. The Tokyo Core CPI will probably show that prices in Japan are not moving – rising by only 0.2% (annually adjusted).

These are the major events for today. Happy Forex Trading!