Forex Daily Outlook – February 25th 2010
Ben Bernanke will continue to cast his spells over the markets today, and we also have many important economic indicators from all over the world. Let’s see what’s awaiting us in this busy day in forex trading:
Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure provides a strong start for the day. After a drop of 3.9% in the previous quarter, it’s predicted to rise by 1.5% this time. The Aussie still hasn’t made a big move. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.
In New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence is an important release that moves the kiwi. New Zealand’s Building Consents are an important gauge of the economy. They disappointed by falling by 2.4% last time. Will they rise now? Also note the Trade Balance, which is currently quite balanced – a surplus of 2 million.
In Switzerland, Employment Level is predicted to remain stable at 3.95 million.
German Unemployment Change disappointed last month with a rise after many good months. Another rise in unemployment, 18K, is expected this time. The M3 Money Supply which fell last month is expected to rise this time by 0.1%.
Also in Europe, Consumer Confidence is predicted to tick down to -17. The Euro is still struggling. For more, check out my EUR/USD forecast, and Casey Stubbs’ latest technical analysis.
In Britain, Mervyn King will get another opportunity to hurt the Pound. He’ll speak in front of the Banking Commission, and will probably move the Pound. His colleague, David Miles, will make a public appearance in the evening and can also contribute his share.
British Business Investment is expected to rise by 0.2% in Q4, after a dropping in Q3. CBI Realized Sales usually rock the Pound. They’re expected to rise from -8 to -1. British figures are improving, but very very slowly.
For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.
In the US, two major releases will are due: Durable Goods Orders are expected to continue the positive trend and rise by 1.6% (1% last month). Core Durable Goods Orders are predicted to rise by 1.1%, following a 1.4% rise last time.
The second figure is Unemployment Claims, which are stuck in the same zone for quite some time. Last month’s 473K is expected to be followed by 461K this time. Only a drop below 430K will convince economists that the recovery can be seen in the job market.
Ben Bernanke will continue testifying Washington today. Needless to say that anything he says or doesn’t say, has a strong impact on the markets, both in the immediate term and for the long run.
Also in the US: HPI is predicted to rise by 0.6% and FOMC members Sandra Pianalto and James Bullard will also speak.
The day ends with an influx of data from Japan: Tokyo Core CPI is predicted to show more deflation in the land of the rising sun – an annual drop of 1.9% in prices. Preliminary Industrial Production is expected to rise by 1.1% after a rise of 1.9% last month.
Last but not least, Japanese Retail Sales are predicted to drop once again, this time by 0.1%.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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