Forex Weekly Outlook – January 4-8 2010

The first week of 2010 is packed with important events. Starting as early as Sunday with Ben Bernanke and ending with the king of forex – Non-Farm Payrolls. In the middle, there’s a rate decision from Britain, European employment numbers and many important releases from Australia. The holidays are over, and the markets are ready for action. Here are the major events that are expected this week.

In the past holiday weeks we’ve seen false breaks. This week, everyone’s back on the scene, and such events are less likely. Let’s start:

Ben Bernanke

Arabic version of the weekly outlook

Sunday, January 3rd: Already on Sunday, an important event is expected: Ben Bernanke will speak about the housing bubble, and will probably set the tone for the opening of the year in forex.

Monday, January 4th: Australia’s Commodity Prices are due early on Monday. In Britain, Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise and help the Pound.

European Sentix Investor Confidence is expected to tick up and push the Euro higher. The big event of the day is American ISM Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to tick up to 54.2 points, after dropping last time.

Tuesday, January 5th: German Unemployment Change surprised economists in previous releases but is expected to rise again, but looking at the past, it will probably drop. CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show that inflation is picking its head in Europe, with a rise of 0.9%.

After strong surprises from new and existing home sales (one good and one bad), American Pending Home Sales are predicted to drop this time by 2.9%. American Factory Orders are predicted to continue the steady positive trend and rise by 0.5% this time.

Wednesday, January 6th: Australian Building Approvals are predicted to leap up this time, after a drop last month that hurt the Euro.

In Britain, Services PMI is predicted to edge higher once again, up to 56.9 points. European Industrial New Orders, that posted a good surprise last month, is predicted to drop this time.

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change provide a hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. They’re expected to show a loss of 74K jobs, about half of last month’s number, and still in the negative zone.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI complements Monday’s similar number. After dropping below the critical 50 mark, it’s predicted to rise back up to 50.9 points this time.

Later in the US, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will shed some more light on the confusing FOMC Statement that eventually pushed the dollar higher.

Kiwi traders should note the Trade Balance release in New Zealand, which is predicted to show a smaller deficit.

Thursday, January 7th: Australian Trade Balance is predicted to show a smaller deficit this time. Retail Sales are predicted to continue the steady growth and show a rise of 0.4%.

Swiss CPI is expected to show another slow month, with a rise of 0.1% in prices.

European Retail Sales are predicted to remain unchanged for a second month in a row. German Factory Orders will probably turn positive, and rise by1.6%.

Mervyn King’s Bank of England will make a rate decision. The British Official Bank Rate is expected to remain unchanged and stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing plan, also known as the Asset Purchase Facility isn’t expected to receive additional funding and stay at 200 billion. As the figures aren’t expected to change, the focus will shift to the MPC Rate Statement, which might lay out the policy for 2010. As of Q3, Britain is still in recession.

In Canada, Ivey PMI is predicted to drop from the high levels it reached. This might cool down the loonie.

American Unemployment Claims, which posted neat numbers in the past weeks, are predicted to rise back from 432K to 444K. This will supply another hint for the NFP on Friday.

Friday, January 8th: Swiss Unemployment Rate is expected to tick up once again, and rise to 4.2%. Only a big surprise will shake the Swissy.

German Retail Sales are expected to start rising again, after being unchanged last month. European Unemployment Rate is expected to tick up once again and rise to 9.9%. If it reaches the psychological number of 10%, this will certainly hurt the Euro.

European final GDP for Q3 is predicted to confirm the earlier reading of a 0.4% growth rate. Also note German Industrial Production is predicted to turn positive after dropping last month.

Canadian employment figures have been excellent last month. Good numbers are expected this time as well: Employment Change is predicted to show a rise of 20K and the Unemployment Rate is expected to move from 8.5%. USD/CAD will rock around this release, especially as American NFP is next.

Non-Farm Payrolls are predicted to show almost no job loss. The current consensus of economists shows a loss of 1000 jobs. If the number is a little bit better, and will show a rise in jobs, the dollar will leap. Job losses have been printed in the past two years and a gain in jobs will be excellent news. Here are some notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading.

Also note the revised number for last month’s number – a loss of 11,000 jobs, which was an excellent surprise. American Unemployment Rate, which dropped from 10.2% to 10% last time, is predicted to tick up to 0.1%. Also here, a drop below 10% will be very meaningful, as this is another psychological barrier.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post in-depth coverages for specific currencies, in this busy week. In the meantime, check out the EUR/USD 2010 predictions.

Have a great weekend and a happy new year!

Further reading:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

5 Notes for Non-Farm Payrolls Trading

The release of the American Non-Farm Payrolls is a circus in the forex market. Here are a 5 notes to watch out for in every Non-Farm Payrolls release during the financial crisis:
Note number 5 is the most important one – the knee jerk reaction.

Forex Daily Outlook – December 4th 2009

Forex trading comes to a climax with American Non-Farm Payrolls, which are expected to fall once again. Also note Canadian employment data. Let’s see what’s awaiting us.
Swiss CPI is predicted to rise by 0.1% after a 0.6%. Swiss prices aren’t putting any pressure for a rate hike.
Canadian employment figures are expected to be OK: a [...]

Job market – the empty half of the glass – risk aversion takes over

American unemployment rate is now at double digits – 10.2%. Obama’s warning of a rate above 10% comes true. This worse-than-expected release, together with Non-Farm Payrolls triggers fear of a slow recovery for a very extended period – “Safe haven” dollar and yen make gains in a choppy market.
The Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed only marginally, and [...]

Non-Farm Payrolls and the Pound

The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls makes the markets go crazy. Even in this madness, some swing patterns can be identified and handled. While most currencies can swing back and forth, GBP/USD might fall and not come back.
1. But the rumor, sell the fact: This known traders’ saying also works in the forex markets. In some cases, [...]

The Beginning of the End?

Fresh Non-Farm Payrolls numbers, and the huge surprise with the dropping unemployment rate suggest that maybe Obama was right: the beginning of the end of the global recession. Great volatility in forex trading leaves the dollar slightly stronger.
Drop in Unemployment Rate
Non-Farm Payrolls printed a serious surprise: job losses in the US squeezed to 247,000 [...]

Forex Daily Outlook – August 7th 2009

The last day of trading this week ends with a bang. Non-Farm Payrolls, king of forex is due today. There more important figures. Let’s see what’s up:
As usual, the first release for today is the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Glenn Stevens and co. will share their opinions about the current state of the economy, and might [...]

Forex Weekly Outlook – June 1-5 2009

Get ready for a wild week in forex trading. As always in the beginning of the month, the king of forex: Non-Farm Payrolls is dominant. We have rate decisions from Europe, Britain, Canada and Australia. Yup, everything happens this week. And there are loads of other major indicators. Hold tight!
Only a big surprise this week [...]

8 Reasons why Non-Farm Payrolls will be Better

Some American figures have shown improvement in the past month. Also economists have expressed optimism. This should be reflected in the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls? April’s NFP could be better than expected. The dollar will feel it.
There are several economic indicators that show that the American economy is improving, or at least stabilized. Hope for America and [...]

Non-Farm Payrolls Send USD/JPY Above 100

Non-Farm Payrolls fell by 663K . Immediately after the release, USD/JPY leaped over 100, adding another digit and leaving dust behind it. The European currencies are gaining against the dollar. Risk appetite is getting very strong!
Non-Farm Payrolls fell a little bit more than expected, but not too bad. Early expectations were for a fall of [...]

« go back — keep looking »

Bad Behavior has blocked 1637 access attempts in the last 7 days.