Forex Daily Outlook – March 11th 2010
The calendar is crowded today with major releases: Australian jobs, a rate decision in Switzerland and important figures in the US are the highlights today. Let’s see what’s up.
As seen in the Non-Farm Payrolls and also beforehand, the commodity currencies continue to show strength while the Euro and the Pound are weak. This will probably continue, although the Euro seems to be stabilizing.
After making a move upwards, Australia provides a strong start for the day. MI Inflation Expectations provide a warm up hinting about inflation. The main course is the employment data: Australia’s Employment Change is expected to show a gain of 15.3K jobs and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable at 5.3%.
Note that these figures were better than expected for four straight months. The expectations were modest, like this time, and the result was better. Will it happen again? For the Aussie’s technical levels, check out the AUD/USD forecast.
In Europe, France begins the day with the release of the final Non-Farm Payrolls for Q4. The drop of 0.4% is expected to be confirmed. Later in Europe, the ECB Monthly Bulletin will provide an indicator about the whole region.
The Euro’s technical situation is stabilizing. Will it rise? Check out more on the Euro in the EUR/USD forecast, and in Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
British Consumer Inflation Expectations are expected to rise, as the inflation rises in Britain. The Pound is sliding down once again, after another credit warning from Fitch.
The Pound’s greater limits remain 1.4770 and 1.5350. It sticks to this range at the moment. Read more in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Switzerland, the central bank will announce a new interest rate. The SNB will probably leave the Libor Rate unchanged at 0.25%. The wording of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment will shake the Swissy for sure. What’s never sure is the actions of the bank. At the same time last year, they intervened immediately after the rate decision. While these interventions are short-lived, they can throw traders out of their positions.
Moving to North America, Canada’s Trade Balance is expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus of 0.4 billion. The American Trade Balance will be released at the same time and will probably show the same deficit as last month – 40.2 billion.
At the same time, 13:30 GMT, American Unemployment Claims are released. They’re expected to drop from 469K to 453K, still within the same range as in recent weeks. This is the first jobless claims release after the NFP, and it will probably move the markets.
Canadian events aren’t over: the NHPI (New Housing Price Index) is predicted to rise by 0.5%, similar to the previous month. Later in Canada, BOC governor Mark Carney will make a public appearance and can also move the loonie.
USD/CAD is struggling to break below 1.02. This 2009 low is a tough and critical spot. For more on the Canadian dollar, read the USD/CAD forecast.
In New Zealand, the day after the rate decision brings another significant release: retail sales. After remaining unchanged last month, they’re expected to rise by 0.3% this time.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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NFP Updates
Earlier in the week, I’ve written a Nonfarm Payrolls preview in which I explained how the low expectations from the outcome serve the US dollar. The low expectations now became lower. Here are some updates about expectations, ways to follow the event and possible ways to trade it.
During the week, the expectations for a loss of [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – March 5th 2010
In the last day of the week, the scene is clear for the king of forex – Non-Farm Payrolls. Let’s see what it’s expected to bring us, and what other events are out there.
Trading during this day, and especially around the release is different than normal days. The markets trade in high volatility. I recommend [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – March 4th 2010
Tension rises in the forex market as the calendar is very busy today. The highlights are rate decisions in Europe and Britain, plus a busy American calendar. Let’s see what’s awaiting us today.
Tension also comes from a possible resolution to the Greek crisis (although fragile), and the hints towards the big event on Friday: Nonfarm [...]
Forex Daily Outlook – March 3rd 2010
Today’s highlights are the Australian GDP and American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, which will raise the tension towards Friday’s big event. Let’s see what’s up for today.
The low expectations for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls are favorable for the dollar. Here’s my Non-Farm Payrolls preview. Let’s start today’s review:
Collapse of the Pound, State of Euro and more, on the Video Outlook
In the weekly interview on Forex TV, I spoke with Julie Sinha about the collapse of the Pound, the factors that will influence the Euro, American Non Farm Payrolls and more events.
In addition, I covered expected technical breakouts, including some the EUR/AUD cross as well. Enjoy!
Want to see what other traders are doing in real [...]
CAD Overcomes Dollar Storm On Strong Economy
USD/CAD is now falling and approaching an important resistance line. This happens as the US dollar is strong, with traders focusing on the collapse of the Pound. The loonie has reasons to rise – a strong economy that is accelerating. The pair is now facing a test:
The dollar is storming through the markets. This is [...]
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