Is EUR/USD starting the fall? It’s still in a range, but fails to reach higher ground again and again. I think it’ll drop soon. What do you think?

German PPI starts the day with an expected rise of 0.1%, after a 0.8% rise last month. Later in Europe, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, will speak in Brussels.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Britain, BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker will speak in just after Trichet, and might shake the Pound. Despite excellent employment figures earlier this week, GBP/USD couldn’t hold above 1.5350, a critical level.

For more technical levels, read the GBP/USD forecast.

Moving to Canada, CPI is expected to rise b 0.4%, after last month’s 0.3% rise. Core CPI, which is an important figure for policymakers, is predicted to rise by 0.3% after edging up by 0.1% last month. Stronger figures are necessary for a rate hike.

Later in Canada, retail sales are also expected to advance steadily, by 0.6%, faster than last month’s 0.4% rise. Core retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%. USD/CAD is getting close to parity…

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Mervyn King didn’t make public appearances this week. This could explain the Pound’s strength. We’ll get to hear him this week through the meeting minutes and through his colleagues. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Rightmove HPI: Published on Monday at midnight GMT. This is Britain’s first house price indicator, and it’s also released early in the week. After falling for a few months, this index showed an acceleration in prices, rising by 3.2% last month. A more modest rise is expected this time.
2. CB Leading Index: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. Most of this indicators components have already been released. Nevertheless, it can still move the Pound. The leading index slowed down last month, rising by only 0.4%. An insignificant rise is expected this time.
3. Employment data: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. After two months of drops in the number of unemployed people, we had a big rise last time – 23,500. This time, the Claimant Count Change is predicted to rise by 8,700 people, weighing on the Pound. This figure relates to February. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate for January will be released. Despite being a late figure, it’s highly quoted by the media and also shakes the Pound. A rise from 7.8% to 7.9% is expected.
4. MPC Meeting Minutes: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT, together with employment figures. The last rate decision didn’t include any surprises – the interest rate and the Quantitative Easing program remained unchanged. Since Mervyn King didn’t rule out further money pumping  through the QE program, we’ll search for hints about this in the meeting minutes. In addition, hints for future policy will also be echoed in this release.
5. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Published on Thursday at 9:30 GMT. The British government borrows lots of money from the public. Last month, a drop in borrowing was expected, but it didn’t happen. This hurt the Pound. Also Fitch and the central bank voiced concerns about the debt. Borrowing is expected to rise from 4.3 to 14.5 billion this time, weighing on the Pound.
6. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The Confederation of British Industry surveys 550 manufacturers and has shown a curb in pessimism. The score is expected to rise from -36 to -34, still in the negative zone, reflecting expectations for lower sales volume.
7. Andrew Sentance talks: Starts talking on Thursday at 16:45 GMT, in a conference in London. Sentance is an external BOE MPC member. His past speeches had a significant impact on the Pound, and this will probably happen again.
8. Paul Tucker talks: He starts speaking on Friday at 10:35 GMT in a conference in Brussels. As deputy governor, Tucker is an influential person that accompanies Mervyn King in parliament appearances. Speaking on Friday, Tucker will probably move the Pound.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound began the week with a small rise, reaching 1.52 before dipping down to 1.4870, a line that it dipped to last week as well. A slow recovery followed, and it touched 1.5220 before closing at 1.5202.

I’ve added the past week’s boundaries as new lines. They weren’t there last week. So, the current range is 1.4870 to 1.5220. The outer limits are stronger.

1.5350 is a strong resistance line. A break of this line two weeks ago signaled the Pound’s collapse. Looking down, 1.4780 is a strong line of support, serving as such in the collapse and also serving as such way back in the past.

Looking lower, 1.44 was a support line in May 2009, and is now the next significant support line after 1.4780.

Above, a break above 1.5350 will set 1.5833 as the next resistance line. There are many more above this line, but they are too far now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

The long term outlook continues to be negative. The British exit of recession is mostly due to a revision of Q3 data, and not real, convincing growth. The UK has yet to show economic strength before the Pound rises.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

There’s still lots of talk about Bernanke’s mini rate hike. Although Monday saw some recovery, there’s still a notion that the Federal Reserve will be one of the more aggressive central banks regarding rate hikes.

The kiwi dollar will rock at the start of the day upon the release of the quarterly Inflation Expectations. The 2.6% figure is predicted to accelerate.

In its neighbor, Australia, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance and might hint something about future rates. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator will probably show more improvement in the Swiss economy.

In France, Consumer Spending leaped by 2.1% last month and is now expected to cool down by 0.6%. A more important figure comes from Germany, where the Ifo Business Climate is predicted to rise from 95.8 to 96.3 points. This will shake the Euro.

The last European figure comes from Belgium – the NBB Business Climate will probably rise from -7 to -5 points, still in the negative zone. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey’s latest technical analysis.

Mervyn King will have his chance to shake the Pound today: in an official hearing in parliament, he’ll speak about inflation (which he denies) and the economy et large. These hearing may take many hours, and his comments usually hurt the Pound.

Apart from King, also his deputy Paul Tucker will make a public appearance and might move the Pound. Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are predicted to slip from 45.9 to 45.3K.

For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

In the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show an annual drop of 2.9% in house prices, less than last month’s number -5.3%. Year to year comparisons will start showing rises soon.

The main release in the US is the CB Consumer Confidence which will probably edge down from 55.9 to 55 points, still on high ground. Also in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard will speak. He had a role in calming the markets after the rate move.

Japan’s Trade Balance closes the day. It’s predicted to remain almost unchanged.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Mervyn King continues to play a strong role in the Pound’s trading. He continued his refusal to admit the rising inflation, and hurt the Pound. He’ll have his chance to move the markets this week as well. Let’s start the review:

1. Inflation Report Hearings: Start on Tuesday at 9:15 GMT. Mervyn King, and possibly other members of the BOE, will come to parliament and talk about inflation as well as other matters. This lengthly session that discusses also growth and employment will probably contain a few headlines from Mr. King – headlines that will move the Pound.
2. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. The British Bankers’ Association represents roughly two thirds of Britain’s mortgages, thus supplying a significant indicator that precedes the government’s release. The number of mortgages is rising steadily and it reached 45.9K last time. Another tick up is predicted.
3. Paul Tucker talks: Start speaking on Tuesday at 12:10 GMT. As Deputy governor of the BOE, Tucker is an influential member that already moved the market before. He’ll talk about the state of the economy in London.
4. Adam Posen talks: Begins on Wednesday at 9:25 GMT. Although he’s an external member of the MPC, Posen also had his share of shaking the Pound. He’ll be speaking in another conference in London.
5. Business Investment: Published on Thursday at 9:30 GMT. This is the preliminary release of this important quarterly indicator. It represents both public and private sectors. Investment is squeezing in Britain. In the previous quarter, it squeezed by “only” 3%, after huge drop of 7.6% and 10.2% beforehand.
6. Mervyn King talks: Starts on Thursday at 9:30 GMT. This appearance in parliament is about the banking system rather than the economy, but King is the King – and he probably won’t miss a chance to shake the Pound once again.
7. David Miles talks: Starts speaking on Thursday at 18:00 GMT. The last British speech for this week comes from a member that has different policy opinions. It will be interesting to follow his words after he realigned with his colleagues in the last rate decision.
8. CBI Realized Sales: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. 160 wholesalers and retails are surveyed for this important indicator. After four positive months of expectations for growing sales volume, a big disappointment was seen last month as the result was -8 points instead of 11 positive points that were expected.
9. GfK Consumer Confidence: Published on Friday at midnight GMT. This barometer measures the consumers directly – 2000 of them. Consumers are pessimistic for quite some time according to this indicator that scores below zero for quite some time. After reaching -13 a few months ago, it fell back down to -17. A similar outcome is expected now.
10. Nationwide HPI: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. According to the Nationwide Building Society, British house prices are rising in the past 9 months. This is probably one of the reasons for the rising inflation. This is the earliest housing sector report and it usually has a strong impact on the Pound. Last month saw a surprise – a rise of 1.2% in prices, an accelerated pace.
11. Revised GDP: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This is the key event of the week, kept for the end. According to the preliminary release for Q4, the British economy only barely got out of recession. The growth rate of 0.1% was also reported in the revised NIESR GDP estimate, and is expected to be confirmed at the revised version as well. In Q3, the contraction rate was revised in a positive manner so there’s hope. But a small downwards revision this time means that Britain is still in a very long recession.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound got close to the 1.5833 resistance line, but that was short lived. It was supported at the 1.5530 line, but that was broken as well. After bouncing at the strong 1.5350 line, it manages to close above it. Most lines haven’t changed from last week’s outlook.

Close resistance is found at 1.5530, last week’s low. This proved as a clear line this week. Above, 1.5720 was a support line for quite some time, but is now a weak resistance line.

Above, 1.5833 is already an important resistance line that the Pound failed to breach. It also was a support line beforehand. Further above, 1.6110 is worth mentioning. Higher lines are just too high.

Looking down, 1.5230, which was a peak quite some time ago, proved to be a strong support line this week. Below this significant support line, the next number is a strong round number: 1.50.

Below the round number, 1.4780 is another support line, but it can be attacked only if Britain continues the recession.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

The negative sentiment hasn’t changed. This week’s rise in unemployment was a setback to the Pound, and this was also felt in price action. The direction is down.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

EUR/GBP, which I’ve been following in the past week is definitely continuing the free fall, breaking more support lines on the way down. The main reason is the weakness of the Euro.

Chinese GDP will supplies a strong start for the day. Q4 GDP is now estimated to rise at an annual level of 10.7%, after 8.9% in Q3. This strong growth has already been addressed by the Chinese central bank, which began a tightening policy. Also note Chinese Industrial Production which is expected to rise by 19.8% (year over year).

The currency that feels the Chinese impact in the strongest manner is the Australian dollar. Strong Chinese growth will help the Aussie, that is tumbling down in recent days. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Europe, purchasing managers’ indices will pour in during the morning. French Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will start. The same figures are then released in Germany and later for all of Europe. All the indices are above 50 points, which means expansion and all of them are expected to edge up.

Also in Europe, a speech by Axel Weber is due. Weber is the head of the German Bundesbank and a candidate for replacing Jean-Claude Trichet. His words often mover the markets. For more on the Euro, that lost another stronghold,  read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, ZEW Economic Expectations will shake the Swissy.

In Britain, Public Sector Net Borrowing is predicted to drop to 18.6 billion, after jumping to 20.3 billion last time. Later in Britain, CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected to rise from -42 to -29, still in the negative zone.

The British Pound enjoys relative stability after the good employment figures yesterday. Note that Mervyn King’s dovish words hurt the Pound. One of colleagues, Paul Tucker, will make a public appearance in London, and could move the currency. For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

The Canadian dollar has lost a significant resistance line to the US dollar – 1.04, after a dovish rate decision and weak inflation. Today, Wholesale Sales are expected to rise by 0.4%.

Later, the Bank of Canada will release the BOC Monetary Policy Report which usually tends to shake the loonie. It will be followed by a press conference held by Mark Carney, head of the BOC.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index made nice gains and reached 22.5 points last time. It’s predicted to drop down to 18.1 points. Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to remain almost unchanged at 444K. A rise above 460K or a drop under 430K will move the markets.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The greenback’s strength hit hard on the British Pound last week. The Pound faces the second version of the Q3 GDP which isn’t expected to change dramatically, among other events. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Britain and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Britain isn’t suffering from deflation, like Europe. Last week’s CPI was OK, but didn’t help the Pound. In the same context, this week’s long inflation hearings in parliament will also shake the Pound. Let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Nationwide HPI: The Nationwide Building Society will probably publish this figure during the week, but the exact time is unknown at the moment.  House prices have been on the rise in the past 6 months, according to Nationwide. A further rise of 0.4% is expected to follow last month’s rise of the same scale.
2. BBA Mortgage Approvals: The British Bankers’ Association rounds up data from about two thirds of the total British mortgage market, making this release important. In recent months, approvals have risen, reaching 42.1K last month, the highest in 18 months. This month, they’re expected to rise even higher, to 43.7K, showing that Britain’s housing sector is recovering after being badly hurt in the crisis. Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT.
3. Prelim Business Investment: This is the preliminary release for an important quarterly figure. Business investment was hit badly by the crisis, and foresaw it. The last time that a rise was seen in this index was Q2 of 2007. Last quarter’s dive was quite depressing: 10.4%! This time, the drop is expected to be better: “only” 3.5%. Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT, somewhat overshadowing the mortgage indicator.
4. Inflation Report Hearings: Mervyn King and his associates go to parliament and talk about the inflation situation, and about the economy in general. In his last appearance in parliament, King sent the Pound way down. The hearings begin on Tuesday at 9:45 GMT at the Treasury Committee.
5. Mervin King and Paul Tucker talk: Senior BoE members will stay in parliament in order to testify in front of another committee – the Economic Affairs Committee at the house of lords. There, they will both be testifying once again and might move the Pound, maybe in another direction. They begin talking on Tuesday at 15:35 GMT. They might hint about the quantitative easing scheme, which was expanded modestly last time.
6. Revised GDP: Britain’s third quarter GDP was terrible: according to the initial release, Britain is still in recession, and the economy shrank by 0.4%. Now, economists are expecting that the revised figure will be better – a 0.3% contraction – still a shrinking economy in recession. No matter the result, the Pound will shake at the time of publication – Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.
7. CBI Realized Sales: 160 wholesale and retail companies are surveyed for this indicator. In the past two months, this figure has been positive, showing that there is a higher sales volume. The number is predicted to rise from 8 to 11. This is also a very important release for the Pound, on Thursday at 11:00 GMT.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound had a nice beginning to the week, reaching  1.6886, but then began tumbling down, hardly managing to close above 1.65, with most of the fall on Friday.

1.65 is the first support line of a falling Pound, although it’s quite minor. Further down, 1.6260 served as support in recent weeks. Below that 1.6110 was a resistance line when the Pound was trading low. This is already a strong support line.

Last support is found at 1.5720, a line that was solid, and where the Pound began the big comeback. Note that some of the support and resistance lines have changed since last week’s GBP/USD outlook.

Looking up, 1.6876, the past week’s high, is the first resistance line. The next place of resistance is the year-to-date high at 1.7040.

Still Pounding the Pound

The British Pound took a beating on the renewed dollar strength. The British economy continues to suffer from many problems. I believe that the third quarter recession will be confirmed this week.

My sentiment remains bearish on the Pound.

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Japan’s preliminary release of third quarter GDP was excellent: Gross Domestic Product rose by 1.2%, much better than 0.8% that was estimated. Also the Prelim GDP Price Index rose more than expected – by 0.2%. USD/JPY is at 89.60, recovering from the initial shake.

A video from a partner:

In Britain, Rightmove HPI disappointed and fell by 1.6% after nice rises in previous months. Later today,  MPC members Paul Tucker and Andrew Sentance will be speaking. Their approach toward quantitative easing has a strong impact on the Pound.

GBP/USD now trades at 1.6727, enjoying the dollar’s weakness. For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD Forecast.

In Europe, consumer price index is predicted to drop by 0.1%. CPI shows the European deflation in the best way. Core CPI is predicted to rise by 1.2%. The figures are annualized. This event will sure shake the Euro, after it started the week by making nice gains, now at 1.4974.  Also note a speech by ECB member Axel Weber, the first and not the last this week.

I recommend reading a piece by Casey Stubbs, that notices a head-and-shoulders pattern in EUR/USD.  For more on the Euro’s week, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

In Canada, Manufacturing Sales are expected to rise by 1% after falling last month. This is quite a volatile indicator. USD/CAD opened the week lower, at 1.0466 at the moment. For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD Forecast.

American Retail Sales are expected to rise again. After a disappointing 1.5% drop last month, this major indicator is expected to rise by 1% this time. Core Retail Sales, no less important, are predicted to post a 0.4% rise, similar to last month’s 0.5% move.

Also in the US at around the same time, 13:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is predicted to drop to 29.9 points after months of climbing. Business Inventories are predicted to drop by 0.7%, after a fall of 1.5% last month. A continued drop in inventories is good for the economy – showing demand.

Ben Bernanke will speak at 17:15 GMT in a conference in New York. He might make some interesting statements regarding future policy. Concerns about the low interest rate in the US are heard all over the world. AlsoDonald Kohn, another FOMC member will speak near the end of the day.

Near the end of the day, Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity is expected to rise by 0.1%, less than last month’s rise.

That’s it for a rather busy Monday. There are more interesting events on the road ahead. Check out the forex weekly forecast for more.

After a roller coaster week, lots of figures await traders of the British Pound: retail sales, consumer price index and the MPC meeting minutes stand out. Here’s an outlook for a busy week of events for the Pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

The positive move by the Pound was boosted by good employment figures, but then hurt by Mervyn King. The upcoming week starts with speeches, and then serious indicators are released. Let’s review the Pound’s 11 events this week:

1. Rightmove HPI: Britain’s earliest indicator for house prices is published early in the week – Monday at midnight GMT. This figure isn’t considered very accurate though. In the last two months, prices were rising according to this index, with a 2.8% jump last time. Prices are expected to rise once again this time.
2. Paul Tucker talks: BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker is one of the voting members in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The MPC has different opinions about the size of quantitative easing program which shakes the Pound. Each vote counts, and every hint (such as the bearish hints here) by a member moves the Pound. Tucker will speak in Brussels on Monday at 8:15 GMT.
3. Andrew Sentance talks: Sentance is another member of the MPC, and also his words can move cable. He’ll be speaking at a different hour, 18:00 GMT, and might say totally different words.
4. Consumer Price Index: Britain’s CPI has been declining in the past two months, reaching 1.1% (annualized), on the brink of missing the annual target of 1-3%. Another slowing in the pace of price rises will hurt the Pound. It’s expected to climb to 1.4% though. Core CPI is also slowing down, but is still higher – 1.7%. It’s predicted to remain at the same level. Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT.
5. Retail Price Index: This is another inflation figure, published with the CPI, on Tuesday at 9:30. The RPI is of importance since it measures only consumable products, and since it has been falling – exposing the bad situation of declining prices. After a few months that showed a fall of 1.4% (annualized), it’s predicted to show a fall of “only” 0.9%.
6. BOE Inflation Letter: This event will complete the inflation releases. It will only be published if the inflation target is missed – CPI falls below 1% in this case. If this happens, Mervyn King will publish a public letter to explain the reasons for this, and especially the things he’ll do to tackle it. This could mean more Pound printing. Will tentatively happen on Tuesday.
7. MPC Meeting Minutes: Last month’s rate decision included a slightly better outcome: a smaller than expected quantitative easing expansion of 25 billion pounds, less than 50 billion that was expected. This helped the Pound. We’ll get to see how the members voted, and probably serious hints about the next decision. The publication, on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT, will rock the Pound.
8. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: This survey of 550 manufacturers shows the expectations for future orders. This number showed expectations for a decline in the past 16 months. No dramatic move is expected – only a slight improvement from -51 to -47 points. Published on Wednesday at 11:00 GMT.
9. Paul Fisher talks: Another public appearance by an MPC member means more shaky times, despite the timing – after the MPC Meeting Minutes. Fisher will speak on Thursday at 9:20 GMT.
10. Retail Sales: British retail sales have stayed unchanged in the past 2 months, disappointing the Pound. This time, they’re expected to rise by 0.6%. Like in every country, this is a major release. It happens in Britain on Thursday at 9:30 GMT.
11. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Mervyn King said that the government needs to cut spending urgently last week. Less borrowing means less spending. We’re expected to see the net borrowing cut by more than half this month – from 14.8 to 6.7 billion. Only a big surprise will have a strong impact, since it’s published together with retail sales, on Thursday at 9:30 GMT.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound had a strong start to the week, breaking the 1.67 resistance line and reaching 1.67. It later fell. mostly by Mervyn King, as low as 1.6510 before recovering and closing at 1.6670, under the line.

Apart from 1.67, that now plays a less important role than in last week’s GBP/USD outlook, the serious resistance above is at 1.7042, the year-to-date peak from August.

Looking down, 1.6260 serves as a minor support line, after holding nicely from the beginning of October. Further down, 1.6110 is already a more serious support line. It served as such in September, and as a resistance line in October.

Far below, 1.5720 is a major line. This is where the Pound bounced back to start the major comeback.

Pounding the Pound

Even though the Pound broke the major resistance line, the troubles for the British economy are far from over. Lets not forget: Britain is still in recession.

I believe that a slip to deflation will add to the Pound’s problem this week. My sentiment remains bearish on the Pound.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Fear is fading away in the past two weeks. More fear means more interest in forex, but isn’t so good for the world…Note that the schedule weighs towards the beginning of the week rather than the end.

Sunday, November 15th: Yes, there are many events on Sunday. New Zealand starts the week with PPI figures which are expected to stay unchanged.

In Japan, Prelim GDP for the third quarter is due. Japan got out of recession Q2, posting a 0.6% growth rate. The trend is expected to continue, with a 0.7% growth.

Monday, November 16th: Britain’s Rightmove HPI is expected to continue rising, showing that the housing sector, badly hurt by the crisis, is recovering. A speech by MPC Paul Tucker and Andrew Sentance are expected later in the day.

In Europe, CPI is expected to fall again, preventing any option of a rate hike. Core CPI is expected to rise by 1.2% (annualized). The Euro zone is now out of recession, but still struggling.

American Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 1% after the depressing fall last time. Also Core Retail Sales are expected to advance.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index is predicted to fall, after a few months of gains. Also note a speech by Ben Bernanke. Hopefully his message won’t be confusing again.

Tuesday, November 17th: Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, will expose the reasons that lead to the second rate hike, and could indicate if another one is due in December. The Aussie reached a new high last week on good employment figures.

Also Switzerland publishes it’s retail sales, which are expected to rise this time.

British CPI is expected to rise by 1.4% (annualized), very close to the bottom of the target range. If it goes under 1%, Mervyn King will issue the BOE Inflation Letter which will explain which measures will be taken to address the situation.

Mervyn King sent the Pound down last week, immediately cooling down good British employment figures.

American PPI is predicted to rise after falling last month. The more important release is TIC Long-Term Purchases, which shows where the dollars are flowing – in or out of the US.

Also in the US: Capacity Utilization Rate is expected and Industrial Production are expected to rise.

Wednesday, November 18th: European Current Account is predicted to show a surplus this time. A speech by Jean-Claude Trichet will also move the Euro.

In Britain, MPC Meeting Minutes are expected to show which members voted for the easy quantitative easing decision, and where the winds are blowing towards the next decision. This is an important event for the Pound. Also note the CBI Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to improve.

Canadian CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% while Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged. It comes before the American CPI numbers, and will cause serious volatility in USD/CAD.

American CPI is predicted to rise by 0.2%, while CPI is predicted to remain unchanged. The stable prices in the US mean low interest rates for a very extended period.

Two housing figures are also due in the US: Building Permits are predicted to rise to 590K and Housing Starts to rise to 610K. Surprises here will move the markets.

Thursday, November 19th: Swiss Trade Balance is expected to show a growing surplus. Switzerland has weathered the economic crisis quite well.

British Retail Sales are expected to rise again, after being unchanged last month. Also Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to shake the Pound, with a smaller number this time.

In Canada, the Leading Index is predicted to rise by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery of the economy. The Canadian dollar made a nice break last week, enjoying good figures.

Weekly Unemployment Claims surprised last week, and are expected to remain around 500K this time as well. Also in the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to rise.

Friday, November 20th: It’s time again for a rate decision in Japan. No worries – no change is expected in the Overnight Call Rate. The focus will be on the official Monetary Policy Statement and the following BOJ Press Conference, which will shed some light on the situation of the Japanese economy following the APEC conference.

German PPI is expected to rise after falling last month. Speeches by Axel Weber and Jean-Claude Trichet will also move the Euro in a rather quiet Friday.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later publish coverages for specific currencies. In the meantime, you’re welcome to read the forex overview of the week that just ended.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Australian ANZ Job Advertisements start the day. The fell by 7.5% last time, and they should rise this time. Also in Australia, NAB Business Confidence.

Japanese Leading Indicators are expected to rise to 77.3%. Also in Japan, Prelim Machine Tool Orders.

German Trade Balance is expected to show a rising surplus, and reach 9.4 billion. In France, the deficit in Trade Balance is predicted to squeeze to 4.4 billion.

Later, German Industrial Production is predicted to decline by 0.2%, after staying unchanged last time. This is a significant figure for EUR/USD. Yesterday’s German Factory Orders were unchanged, exactly as expected. The number for the previous month was revised upwards, but that didn’t help the Euro against the dollar’s landslide.

For a coverage on the Euro’s main events, read: EUR/USD – Will it Get on its Feet Again?

In Britain, Gordon Brown’s problems are still in the news. Regarding economic talk, there’s a speech by BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker. Will he say something interesting? Also in Britain, DCLG HPI is released.

In the US, there are two figures: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is predicted to rise to 51 points, and Wholesale Inventories are expected to fall by 1.1%. The more interesting news in the US are a speech by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. He managed to shake the markets many tmes in the past.

Just before the end of the day, Core Machinery Orders are predicted to show a smaller fall than last month, and decline by 0.2%.

That’s it. The week gets more interesting later on. Check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.

And, here’s a Canadian Dollar Outlook.