Forex Daily Outlook – February 17th 2010
A busy day expects forex traders, especially those trading cable. Major figures will be released in Britain and the US. Will the Pound chose a direction? Let’s see what’s awaiting us:
Fear is fading away from the markets, and high yielding “risky” currencies are on the rise. The Australian and kiwi dollars are making gains, erasing losses made in recent weeks.
Choppy Pound trading
British employment figure are expected to be good: Claimant Count Change, the earliest and most important report of unemployed people, is predicted to show a third month of drops – 14.6K, simillar to last month’s nice drop.
This will be accompanied by the Unemployment Rate. Although it related to December, this is an important release. British unemployment rate is predicted to stay at 7.8%. Learning from the past, this could be lower – better.
The last event comes from the central bank – the MPC Meeting Minutes will reveal how the members voted in the last rate decision – they don’t share the same opinions, especially regarding the Quantitative Easing program. Mervyn King didn’t rule out allocating more money to the program.
For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.
In Europe, Trade Balance will be released and is expected to show a small rise in the surplus. EUR/USD continues to move mostly by the headlines about the Greek debt crisis. For technical lines, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ articles.
Canadian Wholesale Sales are predicted to edge up by 0.6%, less than last month’s move. Later in the day, BOC Deputy Governor David Longworth will make a public appearance and might move the loonie, especially if he relates to the interest rate. Read more on USD/CAD in the Canadian dollar forecast.
American figures pouring in
In the US, there are a lot of indicators today: Building Permits are predicted to tick down from 0.65 to 0.63 million. This important housing sector indicator will be accompanied by another one – Housing Starts, which are expected to make the opposite move – rise from 0.56 to 0.58 million.
American Import Prices, which were unchanged last month, are expected to rise by 0.9%. Capacity Utilization Rate is predicted to edge up from 72% to 72.6% and Industrial Production will probably follow last month’s 0.6% rise with a similar 0.7% rise.
The most important event comes later – the FOMC Meeting Minutes will show why one member preferred to drop the words “extended period” from the statement. The big question: when will there be a rate hike in the US won’t be answered, but we might get some hints about the mood inside the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Budget Balance will finally be released after many delays, and it’s expected to show a smaller deficit this time.
The last event for today comes from Australia – RBA Assistant Governor Philip Lowe will make a public appearance and might shed more light on the state of Australian economy. The Aussie is on the rise. For more, check out the AUD/USD forecast.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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AUD/USD graph with resistance and support lines marked. Click to enlarge:
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