AUD/USD Outlook – March 22-26

After testing higher ground, the Aussie finished the week almost unchanged. The upcoming sees a speech by the RBA governor among other events. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar indirectly enjoyed the unwinding of the Greek crisis, about a month ago. As fears were strong in the past week, the Aussie’s rise was erased, despite the good fundamentals. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT. In Australia, vehicle sales are an important gauge of the economy. They are published early in the week, with no other figures around them, so they could shake the Aussie. After six straight months of rises, sales dropped by 3.4% last month. A rise is predicted this time.
  2. Philip Lowe talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 22:40 GMT. Dr. Philip Lowe is an influential member of the RBA, serving as assistant governor. He might indicate the fate of the next Australian rate decisions. Many analysts think that Australia will raise the rates on a monthly basis – will Lowe indicate a break in the upcoming meeting, after the last hike to 4%.
  3. RBA Financial Stability Review: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian financial system showed strength in the current crisis. This report, published only twice a year, can shed light on the current situation. A positive report on financial institutions can help the Aussie.
  4. Glenn Stevens talks: The speech begins on Thursday at 22:15 GMT. Following Lowe’s speech, his boss will also speak. If he speaks about the currency or future policy, AUD/USD will rock. This isn’t the agenda of the conference he’s attending, so the speech won’t necessarily have an impact.
  5. CB Leading Index: Published on Thursday at 23:00 GMT. 7 indicators compose this index – most of them already released. Nevertheless, it still moves the Aussie. Last month’ rise of 0.6% followed two months of drops. A rise is predicted this time.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

At the beginning of the week, AUD/USD broke above 0.9190, peaking at 0.9250. These gains didn’t hold, and it fell below this level.

Note that some technical levels were modified since last week’s outlook. The current range of AUD/USD is 0.9090 to 0.9190.

Looking up, 0.9327 is a very strong line of resistance, being tested many times during 2009 and the beginning of 2010. A break of this line will lead to the 2009 high of 0.94.

Looking down, the next line of support below 0.9090 is 0.8980, which was a bottom before the pair rose to the current levels. Even lower, 0.8735 was the low level in December 2009, and it provides further support.

The last line of support is 0.8567, which was a support line many months ago and also the place where the Aussie bounced before the recent range.

I am bullish on AUD/USD.

Australia’s strong economy never suffered recession, enjoys a strong job market and excellent trade with China. Less fear in the markets, and it will continue rising.

Further reading:

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