Forex Daily Outlook – February 18th 2010

Yet another busy day expects traders: a rate decision in Japan, American PPI, and American jobless claims stand out. There are many other events as well.

The Greek crisis is fading away. EUR/USD isn’t the only pair to enjoy this. Also commodity currencies are on the rise, enjoying risk appetite trading. There are no releases today in Europe, but headlines regarding Greece might still appear. Let’s start the review:

The Bank of Japan is expected to leave the Overnight Call Rate unchanged at 0.10%. The yen will move by the wording of the Monetary Policy Statement that might include a revised forecast of the economy, and by the sentiment that will be felt in the accompanying BOJ Press Conference.

In Australia, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence is expected to show a positive number, following last quarter’s score of 16 points. On the other side of the day, RBA governor Glenn Stevens will make a public appearance and will probably shake the Aussie as well.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Trade Balance is expected to show a bigger surplus – 1.8 billion. Later, the ZEW Economic Expectations figure for Switzerland will be released. The last score of 56.2 points will probably be followed by something similar. This score is better than Germany and the EU.

The SNB doesn’t like these positive figures – they want a weaker Franc.

After inflation and employment, today we have a lighter British release: CBI Industrial Order Expectations which are predicted to edge up from -39 to -35. Later in the day, BOE Executive Director Paul Fisher will make a public appearance and might lay out future policy. For the Pound’s technical levels, read the GBP/USD forecast.

In Canada, inflation went back to normal after one month of strong rises. Also now, CPI is predicted to to rise by 0.3% and Core CPI by 0.1% – modest rises indeed. These follow drops last month.

Also in Canada, Foreign Securities Purchases which have jumped to 10.5 billion last month, are expected to drop to 7.5 billion. This still reflects confidence in the Canadian economy. For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD forecast.

In the US, Unemployment Claims fell to 440K last week, and they’re predicted to edge up to 445K. Another fall could convince everybody that we’ll have a positive NFP this time.

American producer prices are predicted to leap – after rising by 0.4% last month, a jump of 0.8% is expected this time. Core PPI is predicted to be more moderate – a rise of 0.2%.

Later in the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is predicted to follow the Empire State Manufacturing Index earlier this week and rise from 15.2 to 17.2 points. This is usually a serious market-mover. Also in the US, CB Leading Index is predicted to rise by 0.6%.

For another technical look at EUR/USD, check out Casey Stubbs’ article.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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    Forex Crunch is a blog all about the foreign exchange market. It includes and will include: tutorials, basics of the forex market, daily and weekly forex analysis, technical analysis, forex software posts, and whatever is related to Forex. Forex Crunch aims to deal with forex trading, but with a more personal touch. More...

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