Forex Daily Outlook – August 30 2010

A busy week begins with a busy day – US consumer spending is the highlight of today, amongst many releases from around the world. Will we see more devastating figures already today? Or will tension remain high until the Non-Farm Payrolls? Let’s see what’s up for today:

In New Zealand, economic figures are released early – Trade Balance is expected to turn negative – a deficit of 28 million is expected to follow a few months of surplus.

Later in New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence is an important official release that always rocks the kiwi. It fell to 27.9 points last month, hurting the currency. To close the day, Building Consents, are released, and will show how the housing sector is doing.

For more on the New Zealand dollar, read the NZD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand’s neighbor, Australia, Company Operating Profits are expected to shine with a growth rate of 5.9%, better than last time.

On the other side of the day, a speech by Guy Debelle, the RBA Assistant Governor, will speak, and is likely to shed some light on monetary policy.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD USD forecast.

In the US, a busy week of releases begins with the important Personal Spending release. American probably spent 0.4% more in the past month, after an unchanged figure last time. Note that as many economic indicators were awful lately, also now, a decrease in growth is also likely, and this can put the markets into depression.

Also in the US, Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise by 0.1% after not moving last month, Personal Income is expected to rise by 0.3% and a member of the Federal Reserve, James Bullard will speak in St. Louis, and he might add to Bernanke’s speech on Friday. Bernanke vowed to do everything possible to keep the recovery alive.

How bad is the situation in the US?

In Canada, Current Account is expected to show a bigger deficit of over 10 billion, up from 7.8 billion last month. On the other hand, the loonie might cheer up from a rise in the RMPI – a rise of 0.3% will boost Canada’s export-oriented economy.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

British banks are officially on a holiday. But, at the end of the day, at midnight UK time, the interesting GfK Consumer Confidence will be released and is likely to drop from -22 to -23 – showing that consumers are more pessimistic.

Cable traders expect a busy week ahead. For more on sterling, read the GBP USD forecast.

The bank of Japan might intervene in trading to weaken the yen. While the slow policymakers continue thinking, the yen will move by economic indicators:

Retail Sales are expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1%, slower than last month’s 3.3% rate. At the same time, the preliminary figure for industrial production is likely to drop for another month, but at a slow scale of 0.3%, less than last month’s 1.1% drop.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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