Forex Daily Outlook – May 6 2010

British voters go to the polls. This election is expected to deny all three major parties an outright majority which may bring uncertainty to the markets, US unemployment claims are dropping, US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a speech at the 46th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, in Chicago, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies before the Financial Crisis Inquiry System, in Washington DC and Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech at the Century Club CEO Breakfast Speaker Series, in St Louis. This is an exciting and influential day for the major economies. Let us see what awaits us today.

In the US, A drop of 6000 in the number of new unemployment claims filed during the past week after a steady drop in the last two weeks which is a hopeful sign for the market’s recovery and will also provide a hint towards tomorrow’s big event – Non-Farm Payrolls.

Later in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a speech titled “Supervisory Capital Assessment Program” at the 46th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, in Chicago. Currency value may be affected.  US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies on the shadow banking system before the Financial Crisis Inquiry System, in Washington DC. Could give clues about possible economic policies,  and Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech titled “Assessing the Strength of the US Economic Recovery” at the Century Club CEO Breakfast Speaker Series, in St Louis will provide insight on future monetary policy.

More from the US, Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity is expected to decrease from 6.9% to 2.4% in the 4th quarter following the continuous rise in the previous quarters, this means that employers are getting less production out of their employees while Prelim Unit Labor Costs are expected to rise by 5.5% from -5.9% to -0.4%.

Finally in the US, Natural Gas Storage is expected to remain around 83B.

In Canada, Building Permits show a positive change of 0.4% in the total value of new building permits issued after a drop in the previous report.

More in Canada, Ivey PMI measuring the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers is expected to rise by 1.5 points from 57.8 points in the last report bringing encouraging news for the Canadian market.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Also in Europe, Minimum Bid Rate is expected to stay 1.0% which will probably leave the short term interest rates unchanged.

More in Europe, European Central Bank holds a Press Conference with the President and Vice President will speak. The impact on monetary policy and future monetary policy is high.

Finally in Europe, German Factory Orders are expected a nice rise of 1.4% from 0.0% in the previous month signaling a rise in production and market activity and Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index is also expected a rise from 0.1% to 0.8%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Election Day arrives; Britain is seeking for a strong leadership with a plan to nurse the economy back to health. Major changes are expected in the market.

More in Great Britain, Britain Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) House price index is expected to go down from 1.1% to 0.6%.

Services PMI is expected to rise in 0.6 points.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Retail Sales are expected to edge up from -1.4% to 0.8% shows a positive direction for the Australian economy and on the other hand, Australia increases its negative Trade Balance to -2.02B from -1.92B in the previous month, which only increases the government debt.

Finally in Australia, AIG Construction Index is expected to remain around 48.7 points.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Monetary Base released monthly indicated Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ is expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.4% an increase in short term rates is expected.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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