If your system involves looking at 1 hour charts, check out the 4 hours charts and the daily charts to get the bigger picture. What is the general direction of your currency pair?

Some pairs trade in a flat range for quite a long time. The trader can wait for the currency pair to get close to the bottom and buy, in order to sell when it bounces higher.

Since February 4th, EUR/USD plunged into a range between 1.3423 to 1.3850. At the beginning the trend in the hourly charts was negative. On February 19th, the bottom line of 1.3423 was approached for the first time. And later, the peak was lower than previous peaks – 1.3690 on February 23rd.

The reasons for the fall start in Greece and end at Washington or Beijing – the EUR/USD bears are everywhere. But there’s a big bear-fence below…

The European Unemployment Rate disappointed with a rise to 10%. This rise was worse than early expectations for a rise to 9.9%. We also found out that last month’s figure was already at 9.9%. The figure was revised from 9.% to 9.9%.

Also the rising Pending Home Sales in the US help the Euro, as the feeling of world recovery makes the “safe haven” dollar unnecessary. American Pending Home Sales rose by 3.7%, much better the 0.4% fall that was predicted.

Preliminary GDP proved correct in Germany. The 0.7% growth that was reported for Q3 was confirmed today with the final GDP release. German Ifo Business Climate exceeded expectations and rose to 93.9 points, the highest in 15 months. This is a very important survey.

Japan’s BOJ Monthly Report starts the day, with an insight into the economy. On the other side of the day, Japanese Trade Balance surplus is predicted to rise significantly.

The US dollar index made a nice rise this week, moving from 74.82 to 75.66, somewhat stopping the landslide. The comeback of the greenback, that was very strong two weeks ago, was probably more than a short episode:

The BOJ gets together once again to make a rate decision. Japan’s Overnight Call Rate isn’t expected to budge from 0.1% – rock bottom. Yen traders will focus on the Monetary Policy Statement that accompanies the decision, and the following BOJ Press Conference. The Bank of Japan may change the economic forecasts.