AUD/USD Outlook – July 19-23

Four events await Aussie traders in the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

aud usd forecast

Australia’s home loans finally rose. This positive figure joined the employment figures we’ve seen beforehand and boosted the Aussie.

  1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. We’ve seen two consecutive months of pauses in rate hikes, something that didn’t happen for quite a while. The minutes will show us what the different members think of state of the economy, and more importantly, when they see another hike.
  2. Glenn Stevens talks: Starts speaking on Tuesday at 3:05 GMT. Soon after the release of the minutes, the head of the RBA will give a speech titled “Some Long-Run Effects of the Financial Crisis”. His words almost always rock the Aussie, and this one in Sydney will probably be no different.
  3. MI Leading Index: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute composes this index out of 9 economic indicators, that some of them have already been released. Nevertheless, the release has an impact on the currency. Last month’s unchanged figure will probably be followed with a rise this time.
  4. Import Prices: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. After a full year of drops in import prices, this quarterly index finally rose in Q1, by 0.3%, exceeding expectations. Another rise is expected this time. A rise in import prices has a direct impact on inflation.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After tight range trading between 0.8660 and 0.8770, AUD/USD made a break and peaked at 0.8870. It then collapsed and closed at 0.8660, which is turns into a pivotal line. Note that some of the lines have changed since last week’s outlook.

From the close at the support / resistance line, the Aussie can go back up and make another attempt towards 0.8770, which provides immediate resistance. Stronger resistance is found at 0.8915 which worked as a support and resistance line many times in the past.

Higher, the round number of 0.90 is the next resistance line, and it’s followed by 0.9135 which served as a support line in April. Even higher, the next significant resistance line is 0.9327, which was a resistance line during many months.

Looking down, 0.8567 continues to be an important line of support. It worked as such when the Aussie was trading higher last year, and worked as a resistance line after the pair plunged. Lower, 0.8500 is a minor line of support. Also 0.8390 is a minor line, and it’s followed by 0.8315, which was a double bottom recently.

Even lower, there are many lines. 0.8240 is a minor line, and it’s followed by the year-to-date low of 0.8066.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

The Australian fundamentals, including the strong job market and also the recovering housing sector, continue to shine on Australia.

Further reading:

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