In the US Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, The U.S. manufacturers may need to speed up production based on the anticipated increase in orders for durable goods by up to 0.9% in June, compared with the 0.6% decline in May. 

Later in the US, Crude Oil Inventories, the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week decreases by 1 million and influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods.

Finally in the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Beige Book, Anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 Federal Reserve banks regarding local economic conditions in their district;, traders will watch closely if the Beige Book’s assessment on the economy confirms the Fed Chairman’s “unusually uncertain” economic outlook. 

In Europe, German Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of goods and services purchased by consumers increased by 1%, Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Bank of England (BOE); Governor Mervyn King testifies, along with BOE MPC Members Charles Bean, Paul Fisher, David Miles, and Andrew Sentance on monetary policy and financial stability before the Treasury Select Committee, in London, and influence the nation’s currency.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Consumer Price Index (CPI) the price of goods and services purchased by consumers increased by 1%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. And the Trimmed Mean CPI the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items is stabilized on 0.8%.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ); Interest Rate Statement, The recent strengthening of the Kiwi against the U.S. dollar and other lower-yielding currencies should not come as a surprise since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely-anticipated to follow the footsteps of the Bank of Canada and deliver another 0.25% interest rate hike, bringing the official cash rate in New Zealand to 3.0%.

Later in New Zealand, NBNZ Business Confidence Survey of about 1,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook and measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, indicates optimism and an early signal of future economic activity.

More in New Zealand, Official Cash Rate, the Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks, Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future, increased up to 3%.

Finally in New Zealand Trade Balance, the Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month, droops down from 814M to 359M, but indicates that more goods were exported than imported  and export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;

In Japan, Retail Sales, the total value of sales at the retail level; increases by 0.5% – the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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In the US, US Unemployment Claims, a weekly major indicator of economic health, and an early indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls, expected to rise back to 453K following the previous dip to 429K.

More in the US, American Existing Home Sales is another leading indicator of economic health expected to continue decreasing from 5.66 to 5.15 million following last month’s dip.

Finally in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

In Canada, BOC Monetary Policy Report is released providing valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation followed by a Press Conference where valuable information could be revealed.

More in Canada, Core Retail Sales forecasted 0.5% rise following the 1.2% drop in the previous month indicating improvement in market activity. Retail Sales including Automobile sales are expected the same 0.5% rise following 2.0% decrease in the previous month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, European Industrial New Orders an extensive release for the whole region, a small drop of 0.1% is expected following a three month rise.

More in Europe, French Flash Manufacturing PMI continues the positive growth trend despite a small drop to 54.1 points foreseen now and the French Flash Services PMI is expected to reach 60.0 points very close to last month 60.8 points. German Flash Manufacturing PMI also expected a modest drop from 58.4 to 58.0 points and German Flash Services PMI forecasted to reach 54.6 points following 54.8 in June, nevertheless, these figures still point to economic expansion.

Finally in Europe, the continent’s Flash Manufacturing PMI expected to reach 55.2 points – 0.4 less than in June and Flash Services PMI forecasted 55.0 points 0.5 points weaker than in June.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Retail Sales expected another 0.5% rise following the 0.6% rise in the previous month, certainly encouraging news for the British market.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, National Australia Bank Quarterly Business Confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, has been rising in the past three months and is expected to do so again.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Binary options can be used as an alternative to the traditional stop loss, as a tool for protecting against false breakouts and lots more. One-hour binary options can be used for trading on news events. 

You can trade binary options at StartOptions, a respected binary options provider.

I’ve selected the events and the setups based on study already done for the forex weekly outlooks, and the potential reactions to surprises. Some events collide with each other and could offset each other. These events weren’t selected.

Quick explanation:

• CALL options – if the price closes above the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes below, you’re left with 10%.
• PUT options – if the price closes below the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

OK, let’s review the events:

1. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30 GMT. Market expectations currently stand on 570K. 620K or higher – PUT option on EUR/USD. 520K or lower, CALL option on EUR/USD.
2. Canadian rate decision: Tuesday, 13:00 GMT. Market expects a raise to 0.75%. 1% or higher – PUT option on USD/CAD. Unchanged at 0.5% – CALL on USD/CAD.
3. British Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30 GMT. Market expects +0.5%. 1% or higher – CALL option on GBP/USD, negative outcome – PUT option on GBP/USD.
4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday 12:30 GMT. Market expects 453K. 480K or higher – CALL option on EUR/USD. Below 430K – PUT option on EUR/USD.
5. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00 GMT. Market expects 101.5 points. Below 100 – PUT option on EUR/USD. Above 103 – CALL option on EUR/USD.
6. British GDP (first release): Friday 8:30 GMT: Market expects +0.6%. 0.8% or higher – CALL option on GBP/USD. 0.3% or lower – PUT option on GBP/USD.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means investment advice.

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The initial release of GDP, meeting minutes and retail sales are part of the events that will rock the Pound in a busy week. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The Pound got out of the range it was stuck in, and made a move forward, enjoying another impressive drop in unemployment. It failed to break an important resistance line. Will it happen this week? Let’s start:

1. Rightmove HPI: Published on Sunday at 23:00 GMT. Rightmove has shown 6 straight months of rises in prices of homes. In the past two months, the gains have been rather weak. Following last month’s 0.3% rise, a similar rise is expected now. This will provide a shaky start for the week.
2. Mortgage Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The second housing figure comes from an official source – the Bank of England. The preliminary release of approvals is expected to show a rise – from 50K to 52K. Note that the number tends to change in the final release, but the initial publication has a stronger impact on the Pound.
3. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Last month saw a surge in lending by the government – 16 billion, after a 8 billion in the previous month. A rise to 13.2 billion is expected now, in the first release for the new government.
4. MPC Meeting Minutes: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Andrew Sentance, which voted for raising the interest rate to 0.75% last month, probably did it again, but remained the only one. The Bank of England left the rate unchanged at 0.5%. If another member voted to raise the rates, the protocols will boost the Pound.
5. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT.  550 manufacturers are surveyed for this important indicator. After an improvement, this indicator fell back down last month to -23 points. A negative figure means expectations for weaker order volume. Another drop to minus 25 points will probably be seen now.
6. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. This major consumer indicator surprised with a neat rise last month – 0.6%. Consumers in Britain continue being optimistic and increase their spending. Another nice rise is likely to happen now – 0.5%.
7. GDP: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. The first release of GDP for the second quarter will rock the Pound, and will provide a strong finish to the week. After two quarters of weak growth following the recession, Britain is expected to see stronger growth this time – 0.6%. Such a result will boost the Pound bulls. Note that the NIESR institute showed a similar growth rate in Q2, so expectations are high.
8. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Published on Friday at 8:30 and overshadowed by the GDP release. The British Bankers’ Association represents two thirds of mortgages – which the housing sector relies on. Stability is expected here for the third month in a row, with an insignificant rise from 36.7 to 37K.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Loonie traders expect a busy week, with important releases every day of the week, with the rate decision being the main highlight. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The Canadian dollar continued enjoying the superb employment figures that we’ve seen in the previous week. It will be interesting to see how jobs impact the rate decision, but there are other factors as well. Let’s start:

1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of foreign money into Canada, and serves as a vote of confidence. After turning negative two months ago, the number surprised again, but this time to the upside – 12.36 billion, the highest level in 7 months. A lower outcome is expected now – 8 billion.
2. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. Mark Carney’s BOC made the initial rate hike last month. Canada’s Overnight Rate currently stands at 0.50% and is likely to get another boost to 0.75%. Despite one month of a stall in the GDP, the job market is doing well, and the steady global recovery supports another hike. It’s also important to note the accompanying statement, which will provide hints for the future.
3. Wholesale Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The total value of sales at the back end, the wholesaler level, is quite volatile. After a strong rise two months ago, the volume of sales dropped by 0.3% last month, disappointing the loonie. A small rise of 0.3% is expected this time.
4. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This key consumer figure was terrible last month – retail sales fell by 2%, and also core retail sales, closely watched by the central bank, fell by 1.2%. After these strong drops, both indicators are expected to correct this time and rise by 0.5%. The loonie will rock on this release.
5. BOC Monetary Policy Report: Published on Thursday at 14:30 GMT. The report lays out the bank’s views about inflation, employment and growth, and may contain future prospects, including the interest rate. 45 minutes after the release of this important report, BOC governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference and may release some interesting quotes.
6. CPI: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canadian inflation is under control. Both CPI and Core CPI rose by 0.3% last month, very stable indeed. A significant rise in consumer prices will force the bank to raise the rates at an accelerated pace. This is a strong indicator to close the week.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

In the US, Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments expected a modest decline of -0.1% due to last week’s better-than-expected sales at some major U.S. retailers. This report could also show signs of improvement from the -1.2% drop in May.

More in the US, Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes a detailed record of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy, inflation and the Fed’s future monetary policy. The minutes would likely confirm the Fed’s cautiously optimistic outlook on the economy and the monetary policy makers.

Later in the US, Import Prices, Following the 0.6% decrease in May, a further smaller 0.1% drop is expected. Subdued inflation will give the Federal Reserve room to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for an “extended period.”

Finally in the US, Business inventory growth fell to 0.4% in April reverting a 3-month trend of increasing growth which ended in a 0.7% monthly spike in March. A similar growth is forecasted now. Crude oil inventories fell 2 million barrels in the week ending June 25, following a rise of 2 million barrels the preceding week a further decrease is expected.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities is forecasted to rise by 1.2% from 0.8% in May. The manufacturing sector has been the leading light of the Euro-zone economy so far in 2010, benefiting from improved domestic and, especially, export demand as well as inventory rebuilding.
More in Europe, Consumer Price Index expected to remain flat at 1.4% y/y while the Core CPI increases slightly by 0.9% m/m from 0.8% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, U.K. Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of employment trends and labor market conditions expected lesser 20,200 jobless claims in June than the 30,900 claims in May and may bring a positive improvement in the U.K. jobs market. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 7.9%.
More in Great Britain, Average Earnings Index is an indicator of how fast earnings are growing in Great Britain. A further 3.1% rise is expected in May following the 4.2% climb in April exemplifying an overall positive growth climate in the UK market.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens delivers a speech titled “Some Long-Run Effects of the Financial Crisis” at the Anika Foundation Luncheon, in Sydney. His comments may determine whether inflation rates will increase over the next year.

More in Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.7% in June from 108.0 in May to 101.9 in June. Another decrease is anticipated if the Reserve Bank will continue to raise rates.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, The BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index provides an early indicator of activity levels, with May’s 54.5 index showing expansion, even though it is down 4.1 points from April. Manufacturing activity is anticipated to continue its growth and stay above the 50 point line.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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In the US, The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in April to $40.3 billion the highest in more than a year as exports and imports both declined. A drop to 39.4B is expected now.

More in the US, Federal Budget Balance expected to decrease deficit by 54.3B to -81.6B due to massive policy measures undertaken.

Finally in the US, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index predicted to rise to 47.9 points after an unexpected 46.2 point drop in May.

In Canada, Trade surplus expected to continue its growth to 0.4B from 0.2B in May.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index could provide further evidence of an economic slowdown in the largest economy in the Euro-zone with a reading of 25.2 compared with 28.7 in the previous month. The ZEW index is poorly correlated to economic growth but is often seen as an important indicator of turning points in market sentiment.

More in Europe, French CPI expected to remain 0.1% and German Wholesale Price Index predicted to rise to 0.4% from 0.3% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Consumer Price Index, Inflation is expected to pull back to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% y/y in May, but still stubbornly remaining above the Bank of England’s 3.0% ceiling as well as Core CPI expected to drop to 2.7% from 2.9% in May.

More in Great Britain, Dr Andrew Sentance an external member of the monetary policy committee of the bank of England speaks at the Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce, in Reading. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

Later in Great Britain, Nationwide’s consumer confidence index fell to 65 points in May, the lowest reading since June last year, from an upwardly revised reading of 75 in April. A further drop to 64 points is expected now.

Finally in Great Britain, Department for Communities and Local Government House Price Index measuring change in the selling price of homes expected to rise to 10.3% – 0.2% more than in May. Retail Price Index predicted to drop to 4.9% from 5.1% and CB Leading Index is likely to remain 0.6%.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, producer price index, which measures the change in price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers, rose 0.3% during May despite economists’ expectations for a flat index. A small drop to 0.2% is expected now.

Australia’s NAB business confidence survey fell to a reading of 5 in May from 13 in April, with the decline attributed to global financial market instability and sharp declines in the AUD and equity prices.  A further drop is expected now.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Retail Sales,  Following a three month disappointment, a Rise of 0.6% is now foreseen and Retail sales also predicted to gain 0.6% after 0.2% dip in the previous month.

In Japan, Revised Industrial Production a leading indicator of economic health expected to remain -0.1%. Household Confidence predicted to drop to 42.4 points, 0.4 points less than in the previous month.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Retail sales and the all-important CPI are the major events that will rock the kiwi this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines. Click to enlarge:

The kiwi advanced after crossing the round number of 0.70. It’s further steps depend now on inflation, which will determine the outcome of the next rate decision. Let’s start:

1. FPI: Published on Monday at 22:45 GMT. This monthly gap fills the gap that the government creates by releasing inflation figures only once per quarter. The prices of food, which fell in the past two months, is expected to rise this time. This will be an indicator for the CPI released later in the week.
2. Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 22:45 GMT. Consumers disappointed in the past three months. Sales grew less than expected, or fell more than expected. This important indicator hurt the kiwi. After a drop of 0.6% last month, a rise of 0.6% is predicted now. Also note core retail sales, which fell by 0.2% and are likely to rise by 0.6% now. We’ve seen a strong impact when retail sales fell two months ago.
3. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 22:30 GMT. This survey of manufacturers fell from the peak it reached two months ago and dropped from 58.6 to 54.5 points. Another drop is expected now, but the number will probably remain above 50, meaning economic expansion.
4. CPI: Published on Thursday at 22:45 GMT. A rise in the consumer price index is the key to an intense tightening cycle by the central bank, that already began. Last quarter’s rise of 0.4% will probably be followed by a rise of 0.5% this time. A jump above 1% will boost the kiwi.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD extended its gains in the past week, edging up to new levels. But is this sustainable? The pair cannot rally solely on weak US data. We have a major German survey this week. Let’s start:

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

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The rate decision towards the end of the week is the main European event in the upcoming week, after the common currency settled on higher ground. Here’s an outlook for the European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

It will be interesting to hear Trichet’s comments in the ECB Press Conference after the rate announcement. Will he express fear of a double dip recession? His words usually move the markets. Let’s start:

1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. This survey of 2800 analysts and investors turned positive 3 months ago, but this proved to be a temporary jump – it returned to negative, meaning pessimism. The score is expected to remain at around last month’s score: -4.1 points. Actual: -1.3.
2. Retail Sales: Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT. The volume of sales was very disappointing last month, as it dropped by 1.2% instead of rising. It’s important to note that in the last 8 months, this figure was always revised later to the upside. A small rise is expected this time. Actual: 0.2%
3. Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. After Europe officially emerged out of recession in Q3, its economy stalled in the Q4 of 2009. The initial and second releases for Q1 of 2010 showed a small growth rate of 0.2%. This will probably be confirmed this time. There are usually no surprises here. The next quarters are expected to be worse.
4. German Factory Orders:  Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy had an excellent performance according to this indicator – growth rates of 5% and 2.8% in the past two months. Will the German factories continue carrying the whole Euro-zone?
5. German Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. Also this figure, similar to the previous one, is great. Growth rates exceeded expectations in the past two months, and this trend is expected to continue, although a rise of 4.3% that occurred two months ago, isn’t expected now.
6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged for another month. The European issues prevent a rate hike, and while inflation is picking up, it still isn’t a threat – there are deeper issues.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis