EUR/USD Sep. 2 – Riding Higher in Uptrend Channel

EUR/USD made a sharp move up and settled in a new region, within the uptrend channel. Will it stick to the channel until the Non-Farm Payrolls?  Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals  and community trends.

eur usd september 2 forecast

EUR/USD within uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  After yesterday’s sharp move upwards, EUR/USD relaxed in the Asian session.
  • Current Range is between 1.2770 to 1.2830.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2722, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above  1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channel dominates: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. After losing it two days ago, EUR/USD returned to this range, and even tested the top limit with yesterday’s swing move to 1.2855 – exactly at uptrend resistance.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 9:00: Revised GDP. Exp. +2.2%.
  • 9:00: PPI. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 11:45: Rate decision. Expectations are for an unchanged interest rate of 1% in the Euro-zone. The focus will be on the the wording of the statement – if Jean-Claude Trichet emphasizes concerns and more stimulus – Euro weakens. If the talks are about the exit strategy, Euro rises.
  • 12:30: US Unemployment Claims: Exp. 476K
  • 12:30: US Revised Nonfarm Productivity. Exp. -1.9%.
  • 13:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies. The markets always rock on his words, even many hours after he finished speaking.
  • 14:00: US Pending Home Sales. Exp. -1.3%.
  • 14:00 US Factory Orders. Exp. +0.4%.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. Very busy day today, that begins with the rate decision in Europe, continues with the rlated press conference by the ECB at the same time of the US jobless claims – the last hint for the NFP. And then, Bernanke takes over and more data is released. Very choppy trading expected.
  • Currensee Community: 56% are Short, 44% are long. These are 967 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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