Forex Weekly Outlook – November 30 – December 4 2009

The week of Thanksgiving, which was expected to be calm, was very volatile, with new lows in the dollar, that were proved temporary with the Dubai crisis. The upcoming week is already full of important indicators: rate decision in Europe and Australia, GDP from Europe, Switzerland and Canada, and the king of forex: American Non-Farm Payrolls. There are many more events to start off the new month. Let’s see what’s up this week.

Another sharp move was seen by the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY reached 14 year lows. The safe haven currency enjoyed the crisis as well. The Dubai crisis sent the Yen crosses face down to the mud. The dollar Yen correlation worked perfectly.

Monday, November 30th: New Zealand start the week early with Building Consents, which showed a nice rise last month. Japanese Prelim Industrial Production is expected to rise, pushing the Yen even higher.

In Britain, GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to improve, but remain negative. European prices are expected to rise for a change – the CPI Flash Estimate is predicted to rise by 0.5%.

Canada posts its monthly GDP for September, and it’s expected to turn positive after last month’s drop, that didn’t meet expectations. In the US, Chicago PMI is the first indicator for this week.

Tuesday, December 1st: Australia’s RBA will probably raise the rates once again, and send the Cash Rate to 3.75%. The positive remarks by Glenn Stevens and other officials are expected to be seen also in the accompanying RBA Rate Statement. Australia is way ahead of other Western counties in the interest rate.

Swiss GDP for Q3 is expected to rise by 0.3%, ending the recession that lasted 3 quarters. USD/CHF was already below parity before the Dubai crisis broke out.

In Germany, Retail Sales are predicted to turn positive while the Unemployment Change isn’t expected to budge, after last month’s excellent drop. The all-European Unemployment Rate is predicted to tick up once again, to 9.8%, a number that impacts policymakers.

In Britain, Manufacturing PMI is predicted to edge up. Nationwide HPI is due on Tuesday, and is expected to rise by 0.4%, like last quarter. Another housing figure, Halifax HPI is also predicted to be positive, rising by 0.8%. The British Pound got a reality check last week, with a confirmation of the recession.

On Tuesday, more serious American figures are due: ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted to remain stable after the previous rises. Pending Home Sales, are expected to dip after the big surprise last month.

Wednesday, December 2nd: Two preliminary employment figures are due before the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday: Challenger Job Cuts and ADP Non-Farm Payrolls (or ADP Non-Farm Employment Change if you wish), which are predicted to drop by 151K, less than last month’s disappointing 203K drop.

Also note the Beige Book, which will a give a broad overview of the American economy.

Thursday, December 3rd: Australian Retail Sales are predicted to rise once again, showing the strength of the Australian economy. In Britain, Services PMI complements the Tuesday’s Manufacturing PMI and is expected to rise again.

Revised GDP in Europe, is expected to confirm the 0.4% rise in Q3, that was accepted with hesitation.

The European Central Bank is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to move the Minimum Bid Rate from 1%, but he might say something about the exit strategy at the ECB Press Conference. Also talks of a strong dollar will move move the markets. The Euro escaped the range, but only for a short time.

American weekly Unemployment Claims surprised last week with a nice drop, but are now expected to rise back to 480K, one day before the NFP. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI complements the ISM Manufacturing PMI and is also expected to rise, up to 51.8K.

The more interesting event is a testament by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. He is expected to appear before the Senate Banking Committee. Contrary to speeches and to the FOMC statement, he might have to answer questions and get out of his comfort zone of blurry messages. The markets will rock.

Friday, December 4th: Swiss CPI is predicted to rise by 0.2%, following a higher rise last month.

Canada’s Unemployment Rate is expected to stay stable at 8.6% after excellent figures two months ago, and a very disappointing rise last month. Canadian Employment Change isn’t expected to be wild this time, after the sharp moves in previous months.

American Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to drop by 115K. This figure, the undoubted king of forex trading, is predicted to move the markets throughout the day. The complementary figure, the Unemployment Rate, is expected to remain at 10.2%, the bad figure that was recorded last month.

That’s it for the first week of December. I will later publish specific currency coverages, before the start of the new week. And here they are:

Further reading:

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