In the US, International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases released monthly represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment is due to drop to 77.3 Billion following the unexpected sharp rise of 140.5 Billion in May.

Later in the US, Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to rise by 1 point reaching 20.1 following its decrease in May.

More in the US, Import Prices are expected to drop by -1.1% compared to 0.9% rise in May.

Finally in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech titled “Getting Serious about Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy” at the Institute of Regulation and Risk North Asia event, in Hong Kong may affect Key interest rates.

In Canada, Labor Productivity, released quarterly, is expected to show the same growth rate of 1.4% as in the previous quarter.

More in Canada, Manufacturing Sales are expected to drop from 1.2% to a disappointing 0.3% this month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expecting to rise to 48.7 which are 2.9 more than in May indicating ongoing recovery in the German market.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Inflation Report Hearings held by BOE Governor and MPC members about inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee is bound to affect currency and provide information on market currencies.

More in Great Britain, Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected a slight decrease of 0.2% from 3.7% in May as well as the core CPI foreseen to drop from 3.1% to 3.0%.

Later in Great Britain, Nationwide Consumer Confidence is bound to remain 74 points as in the previous month.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the of the RBA Reserve Bank Board decision on where to set interest rates.

More in Australia, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino speaks at the Financial Executives International of Australia, in Sydney. Interest rates may be affected.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity measuring the change in the total value of services purchased by businesses is predicted to rise by 2.5 % following a drop of -3.0% in May and will have a positive impact on the nation’s currency.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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After a busy week, the Aussie closed the week significantly higher. The upcoming week consists of the meeting minutes from the last rate decision and few other events. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Australia continues to enjoy a steaming job market, as seen once again this week, with the surprising drop in the unemployment rate. Will this push the RBA to another rate hike? Let’s start:

1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. In their last rate decision, Glenn Stevens and his colleagues from the RBA decided to pause, and left the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. This move was expected, but the questions regarding the next moves remained unchanged. The protocols will enable us to see where the wind is blowing.
2. Ric Battellino talks: The RBA Deputy Governor will begin talking on Tuesday at 3:20 at a conference in Sydney. Despite the rate hikes, the economy is still showing strong growth. Battellino might speak his mind about the situation, and possibly hint about further moves by the RBA.
3. MI Leading Index: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute bases this index on 9 indicators. While some of the indicators have already been published, the release by this private establishment still tends to rock the Aussie. Last month saw a jump of 0.9%, significantly higher than previous months. We’ll probably see another strong rise this time.
4. Housing Starts: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This is a lagging indicator, released a long time after related housing figures have already been released (building approvals, home loans), but it still tends to have an impact, as it’s a quarterly release. Q3 and Q4 of 2009 were very strong, with big jumps in housing starts. The rise of 15.1% seen last month won’t return this time, but housing starts are still expected to grow.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

There’s still lots of talk about Bernanke’s mini rate hike. Although Monday saw some recovery, there’s still a notion that the Federal Reserve will be one of the more aggressive central banks regarding rate hikes.

The kiwi dollar will rock at the start of the day upon the release of the quarterly Inflation Expectations. The 2.6% figure is predicted to accelerate.

In its neighbor, Australia, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance and might hint something about future rates. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator will probably show more improvement in the Swiss economy.

In France, Consumer Spending leaped by 2.1% last month and is now expected to cool down by 0.6%. A more important figure comes from Germany, where the Ifo Business Climate is predicted to rise from 95.8 to 96.3 points. This will shake the Euro.

The last European figure comes from Belgium – the NBB Business Climate will probably rise from -7 to -5 points, still in the negative zone. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey’s latest technical analysis.

Mervyn King will have his chance to shake the Pound today: in an official hearing in parliament, he’ll speak about inflation (which he denies) and the economy et large. These hearing may take many hours, and his comments usually hurt the Pound.

Apart from King, also his deputy Paul Tucker will make a public appearance and might move the Pound. Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are predicted to slip from 45.9 to 45.3K.

For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

In the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show an annual drop of 2.9% in house prices, less than last month’s number -5.3%. Year to year comparisons will start showing rises soon.

The main release in the US is the CB Consumer Confidence which will probably edge down from 55.9 to 55 points, still on high ground. Also in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard will speak. He had a role in calming the markets after the rate move.

Japan’s Trade Balance closes the day. It’s predicted to remain almost unchanged.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Australia provides a very strong start for the day, with the release of GDP for the third quarter. Australia, that never dipped into an official recession, is predicted to post 0.4% growth in the GDP, less than last month’s 0.6% expansion.

After the somewhat dovish meeting minutes yesterday, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance. He has shown optimism in the past and can push the Aussie higher.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD USD forecast.

In Europe, purchasing managers’ numbers will be released: French Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI start, and then the same figures are published in Germany. Finally the numbers for the whole continent are released. All the scores are above 50, indicating expansion, and most of them are expected to rise.

European prices are finally expected to grow: CPI is expected to be confirmed with a rise of 0.6% (annualized). Core CPI is expected to be confirmed at an annual rise of 1.2%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR USD forecast.

In Britain, we have the all-important Claimant Count Change, which is the earliest indicator of employment. Last month’s number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose only by 12.9K. This was significantly better than the early expectations. This time, they’re predicted to rise to 14.2K.

The British Unemployment is published for the previous month, but is of high importance. Yet again, economists expect a rise from 7.8% to 8%, but learning from the near past, this could be better.

In Canada, Manufacturing Sales are predicted to rise by 0.5%, less than last month’s rise of 1.4%. The Canadian dollar is doing OK this week. The governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, will speak later on in the day, and might complain again about the strong currency.

For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD forecast.

US figures: Ben Bernanke, housing and inflation

Moving to the US, we have lots of figures. In the housing sector, Building Permits are predicted to rise from 550,000 to 580,000 which will show continued stability. Housing Starts are expected to make a bigger jump, from 530,000 to 590,000. Stronger figures were seen in home sales, so maybe we’ll get better numbers also here.

American CPI is predicted to rise by 0.4%, more than last month’s 0.3% rise. Core CPI, no less important, is predicted to rise by 0.2%, exactly like last month. Prices need to rise at a faster pace for a rate hike to come earlier.

The main dish for today is the FOMC Statement: While Ben Bernanke and his colleagues aren’y expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate, there are high expectations to change the wording of the FOMC Statement.

The focus will be on the specific words about the “extended period” of low rates. Following the excellent Non-Farm Payrolls and the good retail sales, he might omit these words – this will push the dollar higher. Copy-pasting the same statement will be dollar negative.

Read more about the Fed decision, where’s there’s middle ground.

That’s it for today, a long day indeed. Happy forex trading!

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The Australian dollar puts up a fight to the recent greenback’s strength. The upcoming week contains two major events: GDP for the third quarter and the meeting minutes of the last rate decision, that will give us a hint about another possible rate hike. Here’s an outlook for the Australian dollar, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Australia’s employment numbers exceed expectations over and over again. Australia enjoys China’s strength, which was also seen recently. We don’t have too many figures this week, but they are all quite significant. Le’ts review the events. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the interest rate to 3.75% in their last meeting. This was the third consecutive rate hike, and probably not the last. The meeting minutes from this meeting are published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, and are expected to hint about another rate hike. The aforementioned employment figures support this.
2. Housing Starts: This is a quarterly figure that gives a big picture of the housing sector. In Q2, housing starts disappointed by falling in a scale of 3.7%. This time, in Q3, housing starts are expected to align with the rest of the economy, and rise by 6.1%. Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, and somewhat overshadowed by the meeting minutes.
3. MI Leading Index: The Melbourne Institute publishes this composite index on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. Most of the nine indicators that consist of this number have already been published, but is still important. After neat rises in previous months, this index edged up by only 0.4% last time. A stronger rise is expected this time.
4. GDP: Australia has avoided an official recession in the current global crisis. The economy contracted in only one quarter, Q4 of 2008. Since then, it posted growth. After growing by 0.4%, the Australian Gross Domestic Product is expected to rise by 0.4% this time. This major release is due on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
5. Ric Battellino talks: RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino makes many public appearances and impacts the Aussie. His general attitude is optimistic – expressing confidence of long term growth. He’ll make a public appearance on Wednesday at 1:15 in Sydney, and can shake the Aussie as well.
6. RBA Monthly Bulletin: The RBA completes its current round of official releases with this collection of articles and statistics. This could give more information about the central bank’s view towards the economy and future policy. Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie traded lower during most of the week, bottoming out above 0.90. It later rose and touched 0.92 before closing at 0.9125.

Initial and minor support exists at 0.9090, a line that has returned to the chart after being absent from last week’s outlook. This line was strongly broken on Thursday. The Aussie didn’t go below since then.

More significant support is at 0.98950, a line that was tested from both directions. Even lower, 0.85 is an area that the Aussie had a hard to to breach during August, and serves as a far support line.

Looking up, 0.9210 was tested this week once again, making it stronger. Further above, 0.9322 was tested 3 times in the past and also serves as major resistance. Even higher, the YTD high of 0.94 is the next line of resistance.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

My bulls were fueled by the employment improvement, and I believe that they’ll get a boost from the GDP and a growing consensus of another rate hike.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The Aussie was hit quite hard by the Dubai crisis, but didn’t fall to much. The upcoming week’s rate decision is expected to contain a third consecutive rate hike. 9 other events will impact the Australian dollar. Here’s an outlook on the major events that will move the Aussie, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

The Aussie enjoyed good construction figures and hawkish comments by Ric Battellino, but suffered from bad private expenditure data and the Dubai crisis of course. It showed some weakness already last week, as it left the strict trading range earlier than other currencies. Apart from the rate decision, building approvals and retail sales will stand out. Let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:

1. MI Inflation Gauge: The Melbourne Institute has shown that Australian prices are rushing. This index, similar to the CPI, hasn’t risen in the past three months. An unchanged figure is expected this time. This figure is published early in the week: Sunday at 23:30 GMT.
2. Private Sector Credit: Growth in credit means more spending and more stimulus activity in the economy. After three months of rise, the private sector credit in Australia has fallen by 0.2% last month. A return to growth is expected this time – by 0.2%. Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
3. Company Operating Profits: Profits by corporations mean more investment back in the economy. This quarterly indicator has been falling in the past 3 quarters, showing that corporations are suffering from the global crisis. Q3 figures are expected to show growth in profits – by a small 0.1%, but this still marks an end to corporation recession. Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
4. AIG Manufacturing Index: The Australian Industry Group (not to be confused with the American firm), published its own purchasing managers’ index every month. The one related to the manufacturing sector is predicted to remain stable, after dropping last month slightly from 52 to 51.7 points. All in all, a fourth month of expansion is expected. Published on Monday at 22:30 GMT.
5. HIA New Home Sales: The Australian Housing Industry Association has shown that sales of new hoses have fallen last month by 4.5%. This time, prices are expected to be on the rise again, as they did in previous months. This housing sector figure’s exact release time isn’t known at the moment, but it will be during Monday.
6. Building Approvals: This important housing indicator is becoming more stable in recent months, after being very shaky. The 2.7% rise from last month is expected to be followed by a neat 2.1% rise this time. Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, before the rate decision.
7. Rate decision: Australia’s central bank is expected to raise the Cash Rate for a third month in a row. Glenn Stevens was the first, and currently the only man to raise interest rates in the West. He’s is expected to move it another 0.25% higher, to 3.75%. At first there were doubts if another hike is expected, but recent comments, especially by the RBA’s Ric Battellino, make economists quite certain that another hike is predicted. The RBA Rate Statement will hint about future policy. Published on Tuesday at 3:30 GMT. Will another country join Australia in rate hikes?
8. Commodity Prices: Australia’s commodity-oriented economy is sensitive to commodity prices. Half of the country’s exports are commodities. The average selling price fell by 31% in comparison to the same month in 2008. A smaller fall is expected now. Published on Tuesday at 5:30 GMT.
9. AIG Services Index: This figure complements the manufacturing number from Monday. The services sector is less stable: the index passed the 50 mark last month after three months below it – meaning contraction. The 54.8 point score from last month is expected to be followed by a similar number this time. Published on Wednesday at 22:30 GMT.
10. Retail Sales: This is one of the most important economic indicators in any country as it touches consumers. Australia’s retail sales have been going up and down in previous months, disappointing last month with a 0.2% fall. This time, retail sales are predicted to rise by 0.4%. Sales should reflect the rise in jobs. Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie didn’t reach new highs this week – only made it to 0.9322. It was then badly hurt by the Dubai crisis and fell all the way to the 0.8950 support line, that was temporarily broken a few weeks ago. It closed at 0.9060, a support line that appeared in last week’s AUD/USD outlook, and is now erased.

Looking up, 0.9210 continues to serve as a minor resistance line. Higher, 0.9322, the past week’s peak, is the next resistance line. It was a peak also during October. Higher above, 0.94 is the YTD high, and serves as a major resistance.

Looking down, 0.8950 was tested again this week. On its way up in October, the Aussie bounced off this line. It’s a very strong support line. Further below, 0.85 capped the Aussie during the summer, and is distant support line.

My sentiment remain bullish on the Aussie.

The strong Australian economy, boosted by rising rates, should overcome the global fear and continue upwards, despite the blow it got in the Dubai crisis.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of the week’s major events, check out the Weekly forex forecast.
• For the beaten British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the EUR/USD, read the EUR USD forecast.

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Japan’s BOJ Monthly Report starts the day, with an insight into the economy. On the other side of the day, Japanese Trade Balance surplus is predicted to rise significantly.

In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator is predicted to rise from last month’s 0.63 points. Swiss Employment Level is predicted to edge up to 3.96 million. Later in the day, SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth will speak. Will he talk about intervention in the forex markets?

In Europe, German Final GDP is predicted to confirm the 0.7% growth in Q3. A better result will boost the Euro. German Ifo Business Climate is expected to rise to 92.6 showing growing confidence. This is an important release for the Euro.

In France, Consumer Spending is expected to rise by 0.5%, after a nice jump last time. In Belgium, the NBB Business Climate is predicted to rise, but remain negative, at -11.3.

Another notable indicator in Europe is Industrial New Orders, which are predicted to rise by 0.7%, a smaller rise than last month. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected to rise up to 44K, another peak. At the same time, Prelim Business Investment for Q3 is predicted to drop by 3.5%, smaller than last quarter’s whopping 10.2% drop that hurt the Pound.

More action is due at the Inflation Report Hearings that will begin in the British parliament. Mervyn King will give a report on the economy, and will later speak in one of the commitees. High volatility is expected.

For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

In the US, third quarter GDP is predicted to be revised to the downside. The 3.5% growth in Q3, which was doubted by many economists, is predicted to be revised to 2.9% in the second release, also known as Prelim GDP. The markets will shake at this time, 13:30 GMT.

And there’s more from the US: After excellent Existing Home Sales yesterday, house prices are in the limelight today: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show an annualized fall of 9.1%, better than last month. Also note the official HPI, which is predicted to rise by 0.2%.

Later, the CB Consumer Confidence is expected to remain stable this time. Last month, it caused panic when it fell unexpectedly.

The final major event in America is at 19:00 GMT, when the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released. Last month’s decision was quite confusing, yet traders focused on the “extended period of low interest rates”, something that hurt the dollar.

Near the end of the day, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance, and might impact the Aussie. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.

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That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

The Aussie took a blow, with the greenback taking it out of range in the past week. The Aussie, backed by a strong economy and high interest rates, should fight back. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events that will shape the Australian dollar, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

This week doesn’t feature any big events such as employment numbers, which were excellent in Australia, but there still are 5 notable events. Let’s review them:

1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Vehicle Sales are a good indicator for the economy. Cars are expensive products. Car sales in Australia rose in the past two months, and Australia’s strong economy is expected to show another growth in sales. Published early in the week, on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
2. CB Leading Index: The Conference Board publishes this compound index, based on 7 economic indicators, some of them have already been released. The index rose in the past three months, with a strong rise of 1.% last month. A more modest rise is predicted this time. Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT.
3. Ric Battellino talks: As the deputy governor of the RBA, Ric Battellino has a strong influence on the central banks’s hawkish policy. His wods can surely move the Aussie. He’ll be speaking in a conference in Melbourne on Tuesday at 22:20 GMT.
4. Construction Work Done: This quarterly indicator has a strong impact, since it shows the real economic productivity in one of the largest sectors – housing. In the past two quarters, this indicator dropped, lagging behind other, good Australian figures. This time, it is expected to rise by 0.1%, following a drop in the same scale last month. Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
5. Private Capital Expenditure: This is a more important quarterly release, since it shows how investors are reacting during a long period of time. Private Capital Expenditure has returned to growth last quarter, with a neat rise of 3.3%, a big surprise for economists. This time, a more modest rise of 1.1% is predicted. Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie reached a year-to-date high of 0.9405, but it has been all downhill, or down under from there. AUD/USD broke the two week range support line of 0.92, went very low and closed at 0.9144.

0.92 serves as a minor resistance line, marking the range. Above that, 0.94, the YTD high is the next resistance line. Note that some of the lines have changed since last week’s AUD/USD outlook.

Looking down, a strengthening greenback will meet strong support at 0.8950,  a line that served as an important resistance and support line in recent months. Below that, the area of 0.85 also features strong support, as it served as a resistance line for long time in the summer.

My sentiment remain bullish on the Aussie. The strong Australian economy should stand strong also against growing fear. Just last week, employment figures were excellent in Australia. This is not the situation in the US.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Get started from as low as $30/month for FXTechstrategy premium services.

After giving in to the dollar, the Aussie could rise this week on another rate hike. This is part of a very busy week for Aussie traders – there are twelve more events in Australia. Here’s an outlook for the major events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked:

The Aussie made rather sharp moves, especially after the release of the American GDP. Last week’s CPI rose by 1%, within expectations, not changing the overall picture. Apart from the rate decision,Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance will stand out in a very busy calendar. Let’s review the events:

1. AIG Manufacturing Index: The Australian Industry Group surveys 200 manufacturers about their expectations for the future. The score is similar to that of the purchasing managers’ index: above 50 means expansion, and that was the result in the past two months, with 52 last time. It’s expected to continue rising this time. Published on Sunday at 22:30 GMT.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Last week’s CPI wasn’t a big surprise. The Melbourne Institute releases its gauge, which gives another look at inflation. In the past two months, this gauge didn’t move at all. This time, it’s expected to rise modestly. Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT.
3. HPI: Australian house price index has risen last quarter for the first time in a year. The housing sector was late to recover. After a rise of 4.2% last quarter, the positive trend is expected to continue in the third quarter, with a rise of 3.1%. Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
4. Commodity Prices: The Aussie is known as one of the commodity currencies, so this index is important for it. The rise in the price of oil has an impact on all the commodities, so a rise is expected here. Published on Monday at 5:30 GMT.
5. Rate decision: Australia was the first country in the West to raise interest rates. New Zealand was not the second country to do so, so Australia will probably also be the second country to do that.  After raising the Cash Rate to 3.25%, another 0.25% raise is expected to 3.5%. Expectations are based on many hawkish comments made by Glenn Stevens during the recent weeks. The accompanying RBA Rate Statement will hint future policy – how close rate hikes will arrive. Published Tuesday at 2:30 GMT. This is the major event for this week.
6. AIG Services Index: Following Monday’s Manufacturing Index, this complementary indicator is published on Tuesday at Tuesday at 22:30 GMT. June’s figure was above 50, but it went below this important level afterwards. After 49.3 last month, it’s expected to rise above 50 once again.
7. Building Approvals: This housing indicator isn’t stable. After plunging by 12.5%, it rose sharply for two months before dropping last month by 0.1%. This time, it’s expected to post a relatively steady rise of 2.4%. Building Approvals have a long term effect on the economy. This is an important indicator. The impact is might be weaker due the retail sales release at the same time, Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
8. Retail Sales: Australian consumers are less stable than the economy. After two months of squeezing sales, hey increased by 0.9% last month, pushing the Aussie higher. This time, they are expected to rise by 0.5%. Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
9. Trade Balance: Trade with China is good and is one of the main reasons for Australia’s resilience, but the trade balance suffers. In the past 5 months, it has shown a deficit. Last month’s 1.52 billion deficit is probably going to be followed by a deeper one: 2.16 billion. A better result will help the Aussie. Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
10. Glenn Stevens talks: Two days after the rate decision, Glenn Stevens will make a public appearance and talk about “The Road to Prosperity”. Last month, his first appearance after the rate decision included hints about future hikes. This makes this speech no less important. He’ll be speaking on Thursday at 8:55 GMT.
11. AIG Construction Index: The last release from AIG this week refers to the construction sector. The last release showed expansion expectations, with a score of 50.8 points. It’s expected to grow this time. Published on Thursday at 22:30 GMT.
12. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Following the rate statement and Glenn Stevens’ speech, this detailed statement gives another hint about future policy. It’s expected to be hawkish, with further 0.25% rate hikes in the near future. Published on Friday at 00:30 GMT.
13. Ric Battellino talks: RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will talk in Perth. In a previous public appearance in May he was rather dovish about interest rates. Given the recent policy, his words are important this time. He’ll talk on Friday at 6:20 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie gave in to the dollar at the beginning of the week, and then continued lower. It stopped at the support line of 0.8950, where it stopped not so long ago on its way up. After rising for temporarily on hope, it fell again and closed at 0.8980.

Below 0.8950, the area of 0.85 serves as the next support line, serving as a resistance line during the summer. Further dollar strength will halt there.

Looking up, 0.93 is a strong resistance line that was tested recently. Above that, 0.95 worked as a resistance line, and is also a round number. A strong rate hike would meet that line.

Continuing last week’s AUD/USD Outlook, and the ones before, I continue to remain bullish on AUD/USD. The Australian economy is too strong to give in to the sweeping greenback.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Global Events

North Korea continues to play dangerous games with the world: a third test has been conducted. Fears of war in the far east ignite risk aversion and help the US dollar.

Two oil-related events are due today: weekly Crude Oil Inventories are expected to stay unchanged. Bigger news will come from the OPEC meeting held in Vienna. A surprise could impact forex trading as well.

Economic Calendar

In New Zealand, the Annual Budget Release is will probably shock the kiwi. Remember what Alistair Darling did to the Pound?

Swiss Trade Balance is expected to show a shrinking surplus, from 150 million to 110 million.

In Europe, German Unemployment Change is a key figure for the whole continent. Watch the EUR/USD move. Also in Europe, Consumer Confidence is predicted to stay stable.

British CBI Realized Sales are a major figure for the Pound. They’re expected to turn negative, to -10.

British GfK Consumer Confidence is also due, late in the day. Expectations are for an easing – from -27 to -25. Read my special coverage for the British Pound: Pound at New Ground – What’s Next?

US Figures

American Core Durable Goods Orders are predicted to drop by 0.4%, less than last month’s fall. The non-Core figure is expected to rise by 0.1%.

At the same time, Unemployment Claims are published, and no news is expected – stability at around 630K is the consensus. The American job market has seen better days. For more about the greenback’s week, check out my post: : Contraction or Retraction?

An hour and a half later, New Home Sales are due – they’re expected to rise nicely to 363K, from 356K last month.

Near the end of the day, Building Consents will be published in New Zealand. If they continue falling, NZD/USD will be hurt.

Japanese influx of figures

Just before midnight GMT, there are lots of figures published in Japan: Household Spending is predicted to fall by 0.7%, Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show that prices went down, and so will the National Core CPI.

Japanese Unemployment Rate, despite being a late figure, will also have significant impact on USD/JPY. It’s expected to round upwards to 5%.

Last but not least, Japanese Prelim Industrial Production is expected to give some hope, rising by 3.3%. This might justify the cautious optimism that was heard lately from the BOJ.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!