Forex Daily Outlook – January 27th 2010

Another busy day is awaiting forex traders, with a rate decision in the US being the highlight. There are important figures today from all over the world. Let’s see what’s up for today.

Apart from the scheduled releases, note that the World Economic Forum talks start today in Davos, Switzerland. Statements from there can move the markets as well.

Australian CPI provides a strong start to the day. It’s predicted to rise by 0.4%, less than 1% that was printed last quarter. After PPI disappointed with a drop, a weaker number sure is possible. Also note the Trimmed Mean CPI, or Core CPI, which is predicted to rise by 0.6%.

This release critical for the rate decision next week. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

Following the rate decision in Japan and the downgrade by S&P, the BOJ Monthly Report could give a dark picture of the Japanese economy, despite the easing of deflation. On the other side of the day, Japanese Retail Sales are predicted to rise this time – by 0.3%.

German Prelim CPI will be released from the various German states during the the day. After last month’s 0.8% rise, a drop in prices is predicted this time. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Britain, the day after the weak growth report brings another important figure: CBI Realized Sales. It’s expected to drop from 13 to 11 points, after a few good months. Also in Britain, MPC member Andrew Sentance will be speaking today.

For more on the GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

In the US, Treasury Secretary Geithner will make a public appearance and might shake the markets. American New Home Sales are expected to recover from the blow they got last time, as they dropped to 355K. The number is expected to rise to 372K. This might have a muted impact, as a bigger American event is due later.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at a maximum rate of 0.25%. Ben Bernanke is also expected to leave the wording of the FOMC Statement unchanged, with a renewed pledge to leave the rates low “for an extended period of time”.

Last month, it took the markets 6 hours to digest the statement before moving. It sure was confusing.

Also in New Zealand, the central bank makes a rate decision. Alan Bollard’s RBNZ isn’t expected to lift the Official Bank Rate above 2.5%. Prospects for the future might be hinted at the RBNZ Rate Statement. NZD/USD is getting close to 0.70 – a critical line for it.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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