Forex Daily Outlook – March 18th 2010
Many American figures are due today, so lots of action is awaiting us. Will the dollar continue to weaken? Let’s see what’s up for today.
EUR/USD hasn’t broken the critical 1.3850 level. I still claim that the current rise is temporary before the fall. GBP/USD made it above the critical line of 1.5350, but has a hard time holding to its gains. OK, let’s start the review:
After the Bank of Japan introduces more easing measures, it will publish the BOJ Monthly Report which might provide more overview on the Japanese economy.
In Europe, the Current Account is expected to rise from 1.9 to 2.9 billion. While this is good news for the Euro, it will probably not take it over the top – over 1.3850. Later in Europe, Trade Balance is predicted to show a smaller surplus – 5.1 billion.
For more, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
In Switzerland, quarterly industrial production is expected to rise by 5.1%, after a 3.4% rise last time. This will probably boost the Swissy. Later, the Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations figure is expected to stay around last month’s number – 52.5 points.
In Britain, Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to jump from 4.3 to 14.6 billion, weighing on the Pound. Later, CBI Industrial Order Expectations are predicted to edge up from -36 to -33 points,
External BOE MPC Member Andrew Sentance will make a public appearance and could also move the Pound. For more, read the GBP/USD forecast.
Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases were better than expected in previous months, with over 11 billion last month. This shows confidence in the Canadian economy. They’re now predicted to drop to 7.75 billion.
The Canadian dollar is slowly getting closer to parity. For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD forecast.
Many US figures
After producer prices fell and erased a significant portion of last month’s rises, consumer prices aren’t expected to pick up. Both CPI and Core CPI are expected to rise by 0.1% after small moves last month. A significant rise is necessary for a rate hike.
Unemployment Claims are dropping steadily since they reached a peak of 496K. Another drop, from 462K to 456K is predicted. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is now expected to remain unchanged at 17.6. Whatever number is printed, the markets will shake around this event as well.
Also in the US, Current Account will probably show a deficit of 120 billion, more than last month’s figure. The CB Leading Index is expected to rise by 0.1%, less than last month’s rise of 0.3%.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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