EUR/USD Aug. 31 – Uptrend Channel Lost, Falling To Support

EUR/USD lost ground steadily, fell below the uptrend channel and is approaching an important support. Will it collapse or bounce on this busy day? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast aug 31

EUR/USD within new uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD continued the gradual fall, going under the minor support line of 1.2665.
  • Current Range is between 1.2610 to 1.2665
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above  1.2722, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channel lost: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. This is a notable line. EUR/USD lost it.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 7:55: German Unemployment Change. Exp. -19K.
  • 9:00: Unemployment Rate. Exp. 10%.
  • 9:00: CPI Flash Estimate. Exp. 1.6%.
  • 13:00: US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. +3.8%.
  • 13:45: US Chicago PMI. Exp. 57.3.
  • 14:00: US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 50.7.
  • 18:00: US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. Note the European unemployment rate that is a burden on the Euro, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which follow the groundbreaking decision to pump more money into the economy, the statement that enhanced the talks about a double dip recession.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. This is a slight change from yesterday’s 57:43 ratio.These are 952 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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    Forex Crunch is a blog all about the foreign exchange market. It includes and will include: tutorials, basics of the forex market, daily and weekly forex analysis, technical analysis, forex software posts, and whatever is related to Forex. Forex Crunch aims to deal with forex trading, but with a more personal touch. More...

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