Forex Daily Outlook – February 24th 2010
Ben Bernanke’s testimony will be the centerpiece of today’s events, including releases from many countries. Let’s see what’s awaiting us.
For those of you who haven’t noticed, I have a spot on Forex TV, where I talk about the markets. In these interviews I speak about currencies that I cover in the weekly outlooks, and also to additional ones. Here’s the latest video outlook. OK, let’s start the review:
Australia starts the day with two interesting quarterly releases: Wage Price Index is expected to rise by 0.8%, similar to last quarter’s move. A bigger rise will trigger inflation fears.
At the same time, the Construction Work Done figure is predicted to rise by 2.1%, slightly less than the previous quarter. On the other side of the day, CB Leading Index will probably tick up.
The Aussie is on the rise. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.
Germany’s economy disappointed the markets with no growth in Q4, according to the initial release. This stagnation is predicted to be confirmed in the final release. If the number is revised to the downside, this will hurt the Euro.
After yesterday’s Ifo survey disappointed, the German GfK Consumer Climate is also expected to dip: from 3.2 to 3.1 points. Later in Europe, Industrial New Orders are predicted to drop by 1.1% after a surprising 2.7% rise last month.
For more on the Euro, check out my EUR/USD forecast, and Casey Stubbs’ latest technical analysis.
After Mervyn King hurt the Pound yesterday, External BOE MPC Member Adam Posen will also have his chance, in a public appearance. For more on this week’s events in the Pound, (there’s a big release on Friday), check out the GBP/USD forecast.
In Canada, Corporate Profits are expected to rise once again. USD/CAD is struggling around 1.04, a very important support line. Read more about the loonie in the USD/CAD forecast.
Ben Bernanke will start testifying at 15:00 GMT and will shake the markets. It doesn’t always matter what he does say, it’s what the analysts make of it. The focus will be on the meaning of his latest move – the hike of the interbank discount rate.
Will he continue to downplay it? That’s the big question. Although the dollar has retreated from the highs it reached after the decision late on Thursday, it’s still strong, especially against the more vulnerable currencies. Also Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will be testifying later in the day.
New Home Sales are predicted to edge up from 342K to 354K. This is usually a big market-mover, but today it will be overshadowed by Bernanke.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
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