US consumer feel very confident: the Conference Board’s consumer measure jumps much more than expected to 102.9 points. This is in part due to falling gasoline prices. New home sales also beat with a gain of 11.6% to 481K. Both figures look great and come in clear contrast to the terrible durable goods orders release beforehand.
The US dollar is attempting a recovery after the falls earlier. EUR/USD slips below the 1.1373 level it broke above earlier.
- EUR/USD rose earlier above the triple top at 1.1290 and made it all the way up to 1.1387 before the current slide.
- GBP/USD reached a high of 1.5197 and is now down to 1.5176.
- USD/JPY reached a low of 1.1732 and is now up to 117.51.
More: the previous CB Consumer confidence for December was revised up to 93.1 points. Current conditions are up to 112.6, up 14 points – a big leap. For new home sales, we had a downwards revision for November to 431K.
New home sales were expected to advance to 452K in December, up from 438K in November (before revisions). At the same time, the CB Consumer Confidence carried expectations for a rise from 92.6 to 95.3 points for January.
The dollar was on the back foot following very disappointing durable goods orders numbers.
The Richmond Manufacturing Index was predicted to tick down from 7 to 6 points.
Durable goods orders fell 3.4% and the dollar suffered. Also core orders and the Case Shiller HPI disappointed. Only Markit’s flash services PMI came out a bit over expectations with 54 points, better than 53.9 predicted.
The Fed begins its two day meeting today and will release the decision tomorrow. Recent economic data has been sour and many expect the Fed to signal a delay in rate hikes to 2016.
In the last decision, Yellen was hawkish – will she return to the usual dovishness now? It depends on which numbers you prefer focusing on.
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