A nice positive surprise from the weekly jobs barometer: only 300K jobless claims were files, a drop of 32K from the now updated 332K seen last week. This is the best number since December, when claims hit the same level, and one of the lowest post-crisis levels. US jobless claims were expected to fall back to 314K after 326K last week (before revisions). Import prices carried expectations for a rise of 0.2% in March after +0.9% in February. The actual outcome is +0.6%, also above expectations.
The US dollar was attempting to make a small recovery after the blow it got yesterday. EUR/USD traded at around 1.3860, USD/JPY around 101.65 and BP/USD at 1.6767. The dollar is enjoying a moment of grace.
Unemployment claims numbers were distorted more than once by various factors such as computer glitches, re-tooling, the government shutdown, etc. While this isn’t the lowest post crisis number, it seems to be a “clean” one.
The greenback was on the back foot throughout the week, and the relatively dovish FOMC minutes gave the greenback a big hit. The underlying stance was the cautious accommodative monetary policy that works to remove stimulus very gradually. The “6 months” comment from Yellen did not appear in the minutes.
To close the week, there is still one big indicator for the US dollar: the UoM consumer sentiment.
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