USD/CHF traded in a narrow range last week. closing just above the 0.95 level. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with only two releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
With the S&P cutting the credit rating for France and other European countries, the news in Europe continues to be grim, and the franc will likely be affected as well.
Updates: After a big decline last month, Swiss producer prices surprised with a rise of 0.3%. Is deflation leaving Switzerland? USD/CHF is stable around 0.9540. The franc enjoyed the hope from good European auctions and positive Chinese GDP to strengthen against the greenback, but the pair retraced some of the gains, moving to around 0.95. Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations rose from -72 to -50.1 This means that investors are less pessimistic and helped the Swiss gain ground. USD/CHF is moving lower towards 0.9420. The US dollar fell across the board on European optimism, and the Swiss franc enjoyed this. The 0.9350 area is tested.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- PPI: Monday, 8:15. This important indicator measures inflation in the raw materials purchased by Swiss manufacturers. The indicator has dropped for three consecutive readings, and has been in negative territory since June. This is a clear indication of continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. The December reading, which fell down to -0.8%, was well below the market forecast. The market prediction for this month is calling for a rise, up to -0.4%.
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ZEW Economic Expectations: Wednesday, 10:00. This important leading economic indicator surveys important institutional analysts and investors as to their views on Swiss economic conditions. The reading has dropped to levels not seen since 2008, adding to the very real concern a recession later this year.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Dollar/Swiss had a quiet week. The pair opened at 0.9584, which was the high of the week. It quickly fell to just above the 0.94 level, at 0.9406. The dollar then retracted, and the pair closed the week at .9510.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with the lines of parity and 0.9915, both of which are strong resistance levels which have not been tested since the end of 2010. These are followed by the resistance level of 0.9780, which was last tested by the pair in February. Next is a resistance line at 0.9636, followed by 0.9575, which was touched by the pair this week. Next, 0.9423 is providing weak support, and was under attack this week. This is followed by a strong support at 0.9315. Below, 0.9256 is also providing major support for the pair.
The line of 0.9205 is an important support level, followed by 0.9165, which was severely tested in December 2011. Below, 0.9085, which was a strong support level in mid-October, is once again providing support for the pair. The psychologically important figure of 0.90 is the final support level for now.
I am bullish on USD/CHF.
The ongoing debt crisis reached new heights with credit ratings cuts to a host of European countries, including France and Italy. The dollar is poised to take full advantage of this situation, and the franc will likely lose some ground against the greenback.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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