The Swiss franc lost some ground to the dollar during the week, but managed to rebound, and closed the week down slightly, at 0.9150. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with just three releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
USD/CHF showed little change for the week, as the easing in the Greek debt crisis was already factored in by the markets.
Updates: USD/CHF is steady, trading at 0.9163. Swiss Industrial Production stunned the markets, rising by an outstanding 7.9%. This was the sharpest rise in over three years. USD/CHF dropped, trading just above the 0.91 level, at 91.01. Trade Balance rose sharply to 2.68B, its highest level since December 2011.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- Industrial Production: Tuesday, 8:15. This indicator measures the change in output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. The indicator disappointed the markets last month, falling by 1.4%. The market forecast for March calls for an increase of 0.4%. Will the indicator rebound into positive territory this month?
- Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:00. Traders should pay close attention to Trade Balance, as increased exports means that foreigners are buying more francs to purchase Swiss goods. The indicator fell in February to 1.55B, a sixth-month low. The markets are predicting an improved reading in March of 1.97B.
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SNB Quarterly Bulletin: Friday, 8:30. This report tends to have a muted impact on the markets, as much of the information was already released in the Monetary Policy Assessment. A report that is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the Swiss franc.
*All times are GMT
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/CHF opened at 0.9191, and the dollar then flexed some muscle, climbing all the way up to 0.9334. The pair then dropped to a low of 0.9140, as the support line of 0.9120 (discussed last week) held firm. USD/CHF closed the week down slightly, at 0.9151.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with resistance at 0.9510, which was last tested in January. Below, is the line of 0.9412, which acted as support last month, and is now in a resistance role. Next is the resistance line of 0.9306,which was briefly breached as the dollar rallied. This is followed by the line of 0.9250, which had held firm until the pair broke through this week. Below, 0.9204 is providing weak resistance to the pair.
The line of 0.9120 is a weak support line, and could be tested if USD/CHF moves downwards. The next line of support is at 0.9050, followed by 0.8924. Below is 0.8850, which has acted in a strong support role since November. Next is the line of 0.8768. This is followed by support at 0.8710. The final support line for now is 0.8637.
I am bullish on USD/CHF.
USD/CHF has been making slow but steady progress upwards since early March, and the dollar showed some strength during the week, punching past the 0.93 level before retreating. With the US economy contuing to gain steam, the pair may make further inroads upwards.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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