The Swiss franc wasn’t safe at all, and it also surrendered to the dollar’s strength. The upcoming week consists of two key surveys. Here is an outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
The lack of massive action from Ben Bernanke triggered risk averse trading and since the massive SNB intervention, the franc is no longer safe. The franc was also squeezed by rumors of a second SNB move on EUR/CHF.
USD/CHF graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 6:00. The large Swiss bank, now under pressure due to the rogue trading story, has a highly regarded indicator based on 5 economic factors. After a drop to 1.29 points last month, a small rise is expected now.
- KOF Economic Barometer: Friday, 9:30. This compound index is even more important. The KOF institute combines 12 economic indices in an index that has a strong effect on markets. After many months between 2 and 2.3 points, last month’s drop to 1.61 was a big shocker that hit the Swissie. A similar score is expected now.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Dollar/Swiss started the week with a small gap higher and temporarily rested above the 0.88 line. It then continued higher and eventually topped the round number of 0.90, testing high ground.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
0.9370 was a tough line of resistance back in February and was also approached in April. It is strong resistance. 0.9295 capped the pair in March and earlier worked as support.
The peak of 0.9182 reached in September is the next line. It also worked as support in February and March and is strong. 0.9125, which served as support in March is now only weak support.
The round number of 0.90 is an important line. It capped the pair on a recovery attempt in April and was an important separator in September.
Below, 0.8930 served as support in April and also worked as resistance in September, twice. It is strong support. The round number of 0.88 is minor support beneath.
0.8680 is another minor line that provided support for the pair in September. More important downside support is at 0.8550. This was an all time low that served as resistance during the spring of 2011.
I am bullish on USD/CHF.
Even if the SNB doesn’t lift the 1.25 floor under EUR/CHF, the Swiss franc has switched sides from a safe haven to yet another currency in the middle of Europe. The storm that Bernanke started is of high significance and will continue to rock the markets for some time, as the world enters a recession.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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