USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 24-28

The wobbly yen continues to lose ground, as USD/JPY  climbed close to 100 points last week.  The pair closed at 117.72.  This upcoming week has six events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese GDP was unexpectedly low at -0.4%,  as the Japanese economy  officially entered  a recession.  This weighed on the struggling yen. In the US, the FOMC meeting minutes  revealed little about the timing of a rate hike, but noted that the Fed is not overly concerned about weak growth in Japan and the Eurozone. Solid data from inflation, home sales and manufacturing helped the US dollar gain ground last week.

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Monday, 23:50.  The BoJ will release the minutes of last week’s policy meeting. The BoJ held the course with monetary policy, and the minutes will reiterate that the central bank is not changing its monetary stance. However, any signs of dissension amongst policy makers could impact on USD/JPY. BoJ  Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference after the release of the minutes.
2. Household Spending: Thursday, 23:30. This is an important gauge of consumer spending, which is critical for economic growth. The indicator continues to post declines, and the trend is expected to continue in the November reading, with an estimate of -4.8%.
3. Tokyo Core CPI: Thursday, 23:30. Tokyo Core CPI is the most important inflation indicator. Although deflation has been tamed, inflation has failed to meet the BoJ’s target of 2%, and this was a major factor in the decision to raise monetary stimulus. The index has been losing ground and came in at 2.5% in the previous reading. The downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate standing at 2.3%.
4. Preliminary Industrial Production: Thursday, 23:50. This important manufacturing indicator rebounded sharply in October, with a gain of 2.7%. However, the markets are bracing for a decline of 0.4% in the upcoming release.
5. Retail Sales: Thursday, 23:50. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator has posted three straight gains and climbed an impressive 2.3% in October. The forecast for the November reading stands at 0.9%.
6. Housing Starts: Friday, 5:00. This is a minor event which is unlikely to impact on USD/JPY.  Housing Starts continues to decline and came in at -14.3% in the previous reading. Little change is expected in the November release.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen started the week at 116.88.  After touching  a low of 115.45, the pair posted strong gains and  climbed all the way to 118.98. USD/JPY  closed the week at 117.72, as resistance at 117.94 (discussed  last week)  remains intact.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the dollar posting strong gains, we start at higher levels:

121.39 was  an important resistance line  in December 2005.

119.88  follows. This line is the last barrier in  front of  the psychologically important 120 line.

117.94 was tested as USD/JPY surged close to the 119 line. It is a weak line and could face pressure early in the week.

116.82 is providing strong support. This line was tested early in the week but has some breathing room as the pair trades close to 118.

114.65  has  remained intact since December 2007, when the yen was in the midst of a strong yen rally which saw USD/JPY drop below the 96 line. 113.68 is next.

112.48 is the final support line for now. It has held firm since late October.

I am  bullish  on  USD/JPY

With the Japanese economy in recession, there is plenty of room for the yen to fall. Will we see a 120 yen this week? The US economy continues to hum in the right direction and monetary divergence is another factor in the greenback’s favor.

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