The Japanese yen showed some strength last week, but could not consolidate the gains and closed the week unchanged, at 102.29. The upcoming week has six releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
US employment numbers were a mix, as Unemployment Claims were solid, but Nonfarm Payrolls slid. PMIs were also mixed last week. In Japan, it was an uneventful week and the yen starts the week unchanged.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Current Account is directly linked to currency demand, as foreigners need to purchase the domestic currency in order to by Japanese goods and products. Japan recorded a monthly deficit of 0.05 trillion yen, and little change is expected in the January reading.
- Consumer Confidence: Monday, 5:00. Consumer Confidence is of interest to analysts because it is linked to consumer spending, a major component of economic growth. The indicator has been hovering in the low 40’s range in recent readings. A slight improvement is expected in the upcoming reading, with the estimate standing at 43.9 points.
- Core Machinery Orders: Tuesday, 23:50. This is an important manufacturing indicator. It has shown sharp movement, making accurate forecasts a difficult job. The December reading was outstanding, with a 9.3% gain, crushing the estimate of 1.2%. The markets are bracing for a decline in January, with an estimate of -3.7%.
- Tertiary Industry Activity: Tuesday, 23:50. This manufacturing indicator has also bounced around in both directions. The previous release came in at 0.6%, shy of the estimate of 0.8%. The forecast for January stands at a weak -0.2%.
- Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders has been climbing at a steep pace and posted a gain of 28.0% last month. The markets are hoping that the upward trend continues in the upcoming release.
- Corporate Goods Price Index: Wednesday, 23:50. CGPI is a gauge of consumer inflation and has been posting strong readings. In December, the index came in at 2.5%, way above the estimate of 0.4%. Little change is expected in the January release.
* All times are GMT.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
106.66 has held firm since November 2008. This is followed by resistance at 105.70 which continues to provide strong resistance.
104.65 saw a lot of action in December and January when the yen was trading at higher levels.
The round number of 104 follows. This was a key line back in May 2008 and is providing strong resistance.
102.50 was briefly breached for the second straight week. It starts the week as a weak resistance line and could face pressure early in the week.
101.44 was the post-crisis high seen in April 2009, and is the first line of support.
100.85 saw activity in July as the dollar showed strength against the yen. It is protecting the key level of 100.
The round number of 100 is a key psychological level. It is providing USD/JPY with steady support.
98.80 has remained firm since early November, when the dollar began a rally which saw it climb above the 105 line.
The final support level for now is 97.75. This line marked the start of a dollar rally in October, which saw the pair break above the 105 line.
I am bullish on USD/JPY
US releases have generally been positive, and the markets have not gone into a fright over recent Nonfarm Payrolls, which have been less than impressive. The Japanese economy has steadied, but inflation remains well below the 2.0% level and the BOJ’s aggressive monetary policy put strong pressure on the yen, which is trading at low levels.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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