The spread between the yields on the US 10-year and two-year Treasuries dropped to lowest in three months, renewing curve inversions fears.
The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected but surprised markets by signaling no rate hikes in 2019, triggering a rally in treasuries.
Both shorter and longer duration yields fell with the 10-year yield falling 10 basis points to lows near 2.5 percent – a level last seen in January 2018. The two-year yield also fell nine basis points to 2.386 percent and was last seen trading at 2.4 percent.
The curve or the spread between the two narrowed to 12 basis points, the lowest level since Dec. 21.
Put simply, the curve is now just 12 basis points short of inversion (or turning negative). A curve inversion is widely considered an advance indicator of recession.
