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Based on current polling, we put the probability of Vice President Biden winning the presidency at 60%. There is still more than two months to go and thus plenty of time for things to change. A close race is likely to be contentious, with both sides likely to question the legitimacy. President Trump has said he may not accept the result, economists at ANZ bank inform.

Key quotes

“On current polling, we put the probability of Biden winning at 60% Should Biden win, the odds of Democrats controlling Congress are a toss-up. There is no scenario in which Biden wins and Republicans get control of the House.”

“On current polling, we put the probability of Trump winning at 40%. If Trump wins, the most likely scenario is a divided Congress. The odds of a Trump win and a clean sweep of Congress by Republicans are low, while a sweep of Congress by the Democrats is lower (<1%).”

“The FiveThirtyEight model is based on polling data and fundamentals. As of 31 August, the model predicts: Biden a 68% chance of winning Biden wins 316 electoral college votes vs Trump 222 Biden secures 52% of the national vote vs Trump 46%.”

“The Economist’s model is based on polling, voter turnout and fundamentals. As of 31 August, Biden has an 87% chance of winning the electoral college and a 98% chance of winning the popular vote. Biden is forecast to pick up between 215 and 424 electoral votes (mean 343) and Trump 114–323 (mean 195).”

Expert score

5

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