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A weak NOK still argues for a September hike – Nordea

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea, notes that  Norges Bank chose not to explicitly say that a hike in September is the most likely outcomes.

Key quotes

“Still by saying that ‘Overall, new information indicates that the outlook for the policy rate for the period ahead is little changed since the June Report’ it indicates that it still sees September as the most likely outcome.”

“It means that the rate path is the best guide for the coming period and the rate path gave an 80% probability for a September hike.”

“With no significant change in the picture, it will be a hike in September. We stick to our view for a September hike.”

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